the institute for supply managments survey which shows the health of the manufacturing sector fell to 49.1 in august. Any reading below 50 is contraction. the reading for export orders fell to its lowest since april of 2009.
so much for trumps claim we have the best economy on record.
stocks have plunged as a result with the dow down 400
The list of recession indicators continues to climb. A recession is inevitable because of the cyclical nature of the economy. The only real questions will be when it will happen, how long will it be, and how severe.
I’ve predicted a recession occurring sometime in the next 18-24 months. Regardless of who is in the White House. Although there is no question that the Trump Trade War® has had a negative impact towards hastening the eventuality.
It’s amusing, and depressing, that so many people fail to understand basic economic principles. To a degree they believe talking about recession indicators equates to hoping and praying it will happen. Or worse yet, believe we can talk ourselves into a recession. As if discussion of these economic indicators has more than a passing, negligible impact on anything.
It’s also astonishing that we see history repeating itself here. I remember people clamoring before the Great Recession about how talking about was going to make it come true. And suggesting people were praying for it. The more things change, the more they stay the same around here.
No surprise the people to blame for this will point their fingers at everyone else; simply acknowledging their failure is worse then the incompetence that caused it.
I believed that a recession (or at the very least a slowdown) would happen sometime during the 2017-20 timeframe, which is why I predicted all along that whoever won would be a one-term President. Trump’s continual blundering has poured gas on the fire, though.