Another recession warning

[conan]

And for OP.

March 2019

Recession indicator flashing red

One of the best indicators of a coming recession is when the yield on short term government bonds is higher than don long term. Specifically when the 3 month bond is higher than the 10. That’s called an inverted yield curve and it signals a recession in the next 12-18 months. The yield curve inverted this morning https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html

June 2019

Trumps "great" economy is falling apart

he brags about how the economy is doing about as good if not better than ever before. but… gdp growth estimates for q2 have fallen to 1.5% or lower may job growth only 75k,well under the 180k forecast. march and april numbers also sharply reduced. 2 of the last 4 months have seen growth under 100k treasury yields have plunged as the fear of recession is growing.

Aug 2019

Recession warning

looks like trump stupid trade war is about to crash the economy. the interest rate on 2 years nonds is now higher than 10 uear bonds. thats an inverted yield curve and since WW2 has been an excellent forecaster of recessions. its happened before the last 5 recessions and 7 out of the last 9 in response to the inversions dow futures are right now down 300 pre open https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/us-bonds-yield-curve-at-flattest-level-since-2007-amid-risk-off-sentiment.html

Again in Aug 2019

Trump,interest rates,recession, tax cuts and the deficit

when trump enacted his tax cut for the rich he said it wouldn’t blow up the deficit becausewe would have 3% growth well into the future,despite pretty much every competent economist saying that was a fantasy he predicted this growth would occur with 10 year interest rates of 3.2% well we dont have 3% growth so the deficit is blowing up. now he is saying its jay powell and the feds fault for having interest rates to high. This is despite his administrations forecast that 10 year interest rates …

Sept 2019

More proof of the trump recession

manufacturing jobs,especially in swing states have begun falling so far this year 22 states have shown manufacturing job losses including wisconsin,north carolina and pennsylvania one company cummins engines says tariffs will cost if 150 this year,far outdistancing the 70m it saved in corporate taxes

Again Sept 2019

The trump recession may be here

the institute for supply managments survey which shows the health of the manufacturing sector fell to 49.1 in august. Any reading below 50 is contraction. the reading for export orders fell to its lowest since april of 2009. so much for trumps claim we have the best economy on record. stocks have plunged as a result with the dow down 400

Have a happy day Moonshine,