Welcome back to 1970s (stagflation) . . . World Bank projects US GDP to grow only 0.5% in 2023

[Gaius]

So when someone rights “real GDP” they have adjusted twice?

More importantly

• when GDP is 0.5% for a 12-month average, there is a pretty good chance two of those for quarters will be net negative
• never in the history of modern banking as a FFR ~5% been sufficient to contain ~7% inflation. (Ever. the Fed has literally never been successful at that.)

[moonshine]

@Gaius

So when someone rights “real GDP” they have adjusted twice?

More importantly

• when GDP is 0.5% for a 12-month average, there is a pretty good chance two of those for quarters will be net negative
• never in the history of modern banking as a FFR ~5% been sufficient to contain ~7% inflation. (Ever. the Fed has literally never been successful at that.)

all im saying in a growth rate of .5% is inflation adjusted

[Gaius]

@moonshine

all im saying in a growth rate of .5% is inflation adjusted

my bad

[SixFoot]

Keep in mind, you’re now debating the Great Screamer of Recessions That Never Happened during the entire Trump administration. Now there’s no big (D)eal.

[Gaius]

LOL

Inflation has reached these levels three times in Post WW2 history.
Each time, bringing it down required a Fed Funds Rate >10%

In fact E-V-E-R-Y time inflation was 5% or higher
it came down only after the FFR>inflation.

Economics is supposed to be data-drive like science. When a pebble fails to sink a battleship many times in a row we declare “After all that data, we conclude that a pebble cannot sink a battleship”

[SixFoot]

Yeah, but, it’s all under control now that an actual recession is happening. The sky was sure to fall during the 4 years of peace and plenty, but notta now.

Trump,interest rates,recession, tax cuts and the deficit

when trump enacted his tax cut for the rich he said it wouldn’t blow up the deficit becausewe would have 3% growth well into the future,despite pretty much every competent economist saying that was a fantasy he predicted this growth would occur with 10 year interest rates of 3.2% well we dont have 3% growth so the deficit is blowing up. now he is saying its jay powell and the feds fault for having interest rates to high. This is despite his administrations forecast that 10 year interest rates …

Recession warning

looks like trump stupid trade war is about to crash the economy. the interest rate on 2 years nonds is now higher than 10 uear bonds. thats an inverted yield curve and since WW2 has been an excellent forecaster of recessions. its happened before the last 5 recessions and 7 out of the last 9 in response to the inversions dow futures are right now down 300 pre open https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/us-bonds-yield-curve-at-flattest-level-since-2007-amid-risk-off-sentiment.html

The trump recession may be here

the institute for supply managments survey which shows the health of the manufacturing sector fell to 49.1 in august. Any reading below 50 is contraction. the reading for export orders fell to its lowest since april of 2009. so much for trumps claim we have the best economy on record. stocks have plunged as a result with the dow down 400

More proof of the trump recession

manufacturing jobs,especially in swing states have begun falling so far this year 22 states have shown manufacturing job losses including wisconsin,north carolina and pennsylvania one company cummins engines says tariffs will cost if 150 this year,far outdistancing the 70m it saved in corporate taxes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-09/a-manufacturing-recession-could-cost-trump-a-second-term

Another recession warning

Flash PMI index falls under 50 signaling a contraction for the first time since 2013 corona virus was partially to blame but also to blame was companies worry about a wider slowdown… “With the exception of the government-shutdown of 2013, US business activity contracted for the first time since the global financial crisis in February. Weakness was primarily seen in the service sector, where the first drop in activity for four years was reported, but manufacturing production also ground a…

This isn’t even all of them, either. Some people like to keep their profiles hidden to minimize the sheer embarrassment of being wrong all the time.

[Gaius]

Wow!!!
Thank you.

(Kind of Orwellian to keep one’s profile hidden don’t you think?)

[Cratic3947]

@Optrader

We handled it in the 70s by voting out the incompetent Jimmy Carter. Unfortunately, Americans today have become too stupified and apathetic to even recognize the cause of the problem, let alone fix it. We’re not anywhere near the bottom of destruction that the Democrats under the treasonous piece of garbage in the White House is going to cause.

The dems just use vote harvesting to get votes from apathetic voters who would stay home. It’s no longer on person one vote. It’s dem machine voting. And then if it’s close they just fix the machines to lie…

[Cratic3947]

I think we will do much better than expected. Unless we get another bioweapon attack from China like covid.

[Gaius]

@Cratic3947

I think we will do much better than expected. Unless we get another bioweapon attack from China like covid.

We might do better than that.

There is still a lot of helicopter money in the system and at the going rate it will take until roughly approximately Jan 2024 to get back to (non-inflationary) equilibrium.

[SixFoot]

Just in time for an election year, eh?

[Gaius]

@SixFoot

Just in time for an election year, eh?

LOL
This time I don’t think that’s how the decision was made.
(But you are right to think that way. It usually is that way.)

[SottoVoce]

What was GDP growth % in 2020?

[Gaius]

@SottoVoce

What was GDP growth % in 2020?

Looks like it bottomed at -1.5% or -2.75% depending on which ya wanna use.
(or did you want Y-o-Y?)

[moonshine]

for the last 6 months inflation is under 2% a year
july 0.0
august 0.1
september 0.4
october 0.4
november 0.1
december -0.1

[PeterGriffin]

@Optrader

We handled it in the 70s by voting out the incompetent Jimmy Carter.

Reagan was crowing about “Morning in America” in 1984 with a 7+% unemployment rate that went over 8% in 1986.

The steps to control inflation were started in 1976 and continued until 1985. Reagan didn’t do anything except 6 consecutive years of tax increases on the middle class and working poor. FICA taxes were 2% before Reagan raised them to their present 7.65% rate, making sure every working person had every single dollar taxed by 300%+ more, while giving the upper income filers a tax cut.

The GOP is still an anti worker party to this day.

[Gaius]

@PeterGriffin

@Optrader

We handled it in the 70s by voting out the incompetent Jimmy Carter.

Reagan was crowing about “Morning in America” in 1984 with a 7+% unemployment rate that went over 8% in 1986.

The steps to control inflation were started in 1976 and continued until 1985. Reagan didn’t do anything except 6 consecutive years of tax increases on the middle class and working poor. FICA taxes were 2% before Reagan raised them to their present 7.65% rate, making sure every working person had every single dollar taxed by 300%+ more, while giving the upper income filers a tax cut.

The GOP is still an anti worker party to this day.

A case could reasonably be made (indeed has been asserted) that Volcker’s actions were so strong and decisive nothing Reagan did really mattered and we would have had the same result as if Jimmy Carter had won re-election.

What we know for certain is

• Reagan’s predecessors (including Jimmy Carter) tried to fight inflation with wage and price controls, gas rationing
• Reagan’s predecessors (including Jimmy Carter) tried to save the economy using measures that increased demand and punished the supply side.

Both of those policy sets are looney toon solutions to inflation. From an economic science perspective they are are no better-informed than rejecting evolution believing in seven-day creation, using new age magic crystals to cure cancer etc… In fact they are not only looney toon, they tend to cause inflation.

It would be unreasonable to conclude “Reagan didn’t do end inflation” = “The 80s recovery would have happened even without Reagan.” (A does not equal B)

[biggestal99]

@SixFoot

Keep in mind, you’re now debating the Great Screamer of Recessions That Never Happened during the entire Trump administration. Now there’s no big (D)eal.

we had the covid recession (major) the first two quarters of 2020.
we had the recession this year (minor) the first 2 quarters of 2022.

those are facts.

Allan

[biggestal99]

@moonshine

for the last 6 months inflation is under 2% a year
july 0.0
august 0.1
september 0.4
october 0.4
november 0.1
december -0.1

i noted this in the forum back in July when it the slowing was beginning.

Allan

[Gaius]

@moonshine

for the last 6 months inflation is under 2% a year
july 0.0
august 0.1
september 0.4
october 0.4
november 0.1
december -0.1

You lost me.
You asked about GDP
I answered in terms of GDP

You responded with something about CPI
(Not disagreeing, you just lost me is all)