Ahh. CDC is part of the deep state out to get Trump
The flu is “well understood”. This is an evolving situation.
When a pandemic is unfolding, two numbers are tracked.
First rate looks at total deaths/total confirmed cases. This is the 3-4% that you hear being reported, and, as has been pointed out, is caveated that it will change as we get a better handle on how many people have gotten this.
The second looks at resolved cases. This would be cases where an outcome has happened- either the patient has recovered, or has died. This number of course will be higher because most of the confirmed cases are still sick, since this illness takes 1-2 weeks to resolve.
Eventually the two numbers will converge, and the final number will be somewhere between the two.
Theoretically.
Because as we know, Italy’s death rates are “sky high” because their system buckled under the pressure, whereas other countries like South Korea and Taiwan have managed their cases in a more controlled manner and have mortality rates between 0.5% and 1.0%.
There’s ways to estimate what a “controlled COVID season” would look like which I can provide links to if anyone is interested, but the 0.5%-1.0% range is what some experts are beginning to converge on for a “controlled seasonal situation”.
Which STILL makes it 5-10x more deadly than the flu.
But again- it is early days.
Well, unskewed mortality counts… not rates. Rates are what I think are messed up. But even so, they are only messed up if you then use them to compare to the flu. If you are going to compare two different mortality rates, they should both be calculated using the same method.
But they can explain what they are doing and they can use the numbers they have seen in China, Italy, etc. which tell them the hospitalization rate to actual cases is about 80%. Not explaining what they are doing is unethical because it causes unwarranted fear.
They could use the 80% number and it would be just as valid as they get with the flu. If you read how they estimate the flu, it is pretty rough as well… and in no way is supposed to be accurate, just a best estimate and something they can use as a base to compare year to year. It works. But then comparing covid-19 to those flu numbers without explaining any of this, is unethical in my mind.
I spent 4-hours putting all of the numbers together based on CDC publications that show how they do it. I come up with .00372 and they came up with .034… much different. In my posting, I am just explaining why the difference.
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The day before yesterday, there were 3,487 confirmed cases with 68 confirmed dead posted on the CDC website.
That is a known 1.95% mortality rate.
Yesterday, the CDC had 4,226 confirmed cases with 75 confirmed dead posted on their website.
That is a known 1.77% mortality rate.
Last night, a poster claimed the new number was 5,204 confirmed cases, 92 confirmed deaths.
Again, a 1.77% mortality rate.
Hopefully on the next update today, the mortality rate drops again. A downward pattern would be a nice sight.
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When they have more data, they will.
This is an evolving situation and they’ve been upfront about that.
This is SOP in an evolving pandemic.
The mortality rate will continue drooping as testing expands. Relax, it isn’t a conspiracy.
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Exactly. But my point is that they are not explaining these details. I think the details are the key to understanding the numbers correctly.
Dems have been saying for the last 3-years they want the economy to fail and hurt Trump. So why would anyone be surprised? Plus the media and dems have admitted to suppression H1N1 information when it came out, which explains the 6-month of ignoring it, so that it would not hurt Obama. Why wouldn’t you expect them to respond the same here and try t hurt Trump through this? They are certainly trying every chance they get. Using mortality rates is just another way to do it.
In the end, Trump saying that the rate is less than 1% is going to be correct. I suspect this is why they are saying that.
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We don’t even know if it will mutate and be recurring virus every year.
They are explaining these details.
There is some expectation that people need to do some of their own work.
You really expect that it has to be caveated that the numbers are evolving each and every time they’re being reported+
Are people completely incapable of learning?
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Its easier to spout conspiracy theories and be victims of everything.
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Gives us something to do while self isolating. 
Mostly correct. They are only testing the more serious cases, which would be equivalent of hospitalizations with the flu. The only thing you really need is a method to estimate counts you have vs. counts you don’t. With covid-19 we have estimates for total infections to series cases, being about 80% to 85%. So that works for the stats, the same as hospitalizations and can be used to as effectively estimate total infections as hospitalizations is used to estimate it for the flu.
If you read how they do this, the hospitalization rate to estimate totals is not a perfected method and they know that. The point is that it is statistically valid and works. The same is true for the serous cases they are testing compared back to estimate total infections. It is not perfect, but just about as reasonable and valid as hospitalizations to total for the flu.
But my real point is… in the end we are going to see less than 1% mortality rate. What the whitehouse is saying that it will be 1%, is actually going to be true in the end. I suspect this is why.
Then why not use the same calculation for the fly and covid-19 when comparing? It is simple math.
That is correct, but this is not how they calculate the flu. If you use the CDCs approach to the fly, they would take the 5204 cases and estimate about 25,000 actual cases (this assumes a 20% hospitalization average for covid-19), then you get a .0037 mortality rate. This is what should used when comparing against the flu.
If you do it the other way around, you’d calculate the flu mortality rate based on hospitalizations, and you’d get a really high mortality rate.
The issue being, you cannot use two different methods to calculate two different mortality rates, then compare them. That is apples to oranges. You have to use the same method to calculate both, then compare them. Not doing so is not just dishonest, but unethical in my mind.
I have never heard them explain the difference between how the flu mortality rate is determined compared to how they are determining the covid-19 rate. I finally found an article (mentioned in another forum posting on this website) where a dr from John Hopkins is basically saying the same thing, just not giving any details like I am. That is the first I have heard anyone else mention this.
But you are correct, that over time all of this will show up. But the damage from a panic will have already occurred. At least we should recover from it quickly.
Precisely this, but if we can blame anyone for that, it is the Executive branch, which has failed to produce mass testing in a timely manner.
The confirmed vs. mortality rate is probably less than 1 percent at the moment but we cannot confirm because we cannot do sweeping tests of the population. This is, in part, because the FDA and CDC dropped the ball and would not use the WHO test, which was proven to be extremely effective in Singapore and South Korea.
I don’t care if it meets this standard or that, we have data that the test was effective in lowering the curve in two fairly densely populated countries. We should have simply started with that until we could adequately develop our own.
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No we haven’t.
