Then why not use the same calculation for the fly and covid-19 when comparing? It is simple math.
That is correct, but this is not how they calculate the flu. If you use the CDCs approach to the fly, they would take the 5204 cases and estimate about 25,000 actual cases (this assumes a 20% hospitalization average for covid-19), then you get a .0037 mortality rate. This is what should used when comparing against the flu.
If you do it the other way around, you’d calculate the flu mortality rate based on hospitalizations, and you’d get a really high mortality rate.
The issue being, you cannot use two different methods to calculate two different mortality rates, then compare them. That is apples to oranges. You have to use the same method to calculate both, then compare them. Not doing so is not just dishonest, but unethical in my mind.
I have never heard them explain the difference between how the flu mortality rate is determined compared to how they are determining the covid-19 rate. I finally found an article (mentioned in another forum posting on this website) where a dr from John Hopkins is basically saying the same thing, just not giving any details like I am. That is the first I have heard anyone else mention this.
But you are correct, that over time all of this will show up. But the damage from a panic will have already occurred. At least we should recover from it quickly.
Precisely this, but if we can blame anyone for that, it is the Executive branch, which has failed to produce mass testing in a timely manner.
The confirmed vs. mortality rate is probably less than 1 percent at the moment but we cannot confirm because we cannot do sweeping tests of the population. This is, in part, because the FDA and CDC dropped the ball and would not use the WHO test, which was proven to be extremely effective in Singapore and South Korea.
I don’t care if it meets this standard or that, we have data that the test was effective in lowering the curve in two fairly densely populated countries. We should have simply started with that until we could adequately develop our own.
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No we haven’t.
Yeah, I agree with you.
I guess I have just been hearing too many reports from CNN, MSNBC, etc. that are not exactly giving anyone the details. I think this is causing harm.
If you look at the CDC, I see where someone could say that they are not the cause of the confusion. But I don’t think they’ve done a good job in explaining the details. Or maybe the media is just talking to much and so loud, I can’t seem to hear much else.
And if 60,000,000 get infected by end of summer, at .5% mortality, that’s 300,000 dead in lrss than 6 months
But hey its just the flu
The thing is, right now they ARE fairly neck and neck in comparison with the flu because we are only testing the most severe cases right now. Which is equivalent to hospitalized flu patients.
There are tons of asymptomatic patients who haven’t been tested. There are loads of people with mild presentations who are self isolated and riding it out. But your complaint that right now the COVID is being overrepresented is not true, its the opposite.
And even if COVID-19 has the same mortality rate as the flu, it spreads so quickly we wouldn’t have the hospital capacity to handle it unless we flatten the curve. But since it doesn’t it makes it even more of an emergency
You’ll get no argument from me the media has hyped this a lot. And people should switch off from the incessant coverage and try to focus on what’s important.
Hard to strike a balance, though, when people are being asked to do things they’re not used to doing like pretty much shut down their daily life.
Here is where consistent, coordinate messaging from federal, state and local authorities would help- which we really haven’t had.
It’s the lack of the appearance of any planning coupled with the media noise which IMO is driving any panic.
your complaint that right now the COVID is being overrepresented is not true, its the opposite.
How do you come up with that? Show me the math. Nothing suggests it is the opposite and everything says it is significantly overestimated.
One of those articles is an opinion piece about why no one should ever hope for a recession. 2 of them are just Bill Maher, an entertainer who uses shock value to spark conversation on his Panel show. So, 1 outta 4. I guess, or something.
Hope you see this before it’s deleted.
You’re right of course there is a YUGE political difference in the reporting of H1N1 virus and COVID 19. 
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I’d really like to think you better than that. You know as well as anyone the capacity for mass testng didnt Exist on the scale necessary to implement it at the levels necessary to have it quickly.
No other country has the regulatory nightmare we have either.
If you want instantaneous mass production would have to accept the risks that come with circumventing that system
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I’m not arguing that. I’m simply pointing out what is mathematically correct. I agree, we should take this seriously.
I actually think I will end up with it in the end, and I am self-isolating. I have had the flu like systems the past 5 days and it is really odd flu. I don’t feel too bad, but have had a constant 99.7-100.1 temp, very fatigued, joint pain, cough, etc. But nothing bad at all. All 5 in my family have caught it.
The systems are VERY mild, so we cannot be tested. Everyone has had a flu shot except me, as I had heart surgery a few months ago and I was schedule to get the flu shot in a week or so. But I am only 47 and in good shape, not overweight, good cholesterol, etc., but apparently bad genetics when it comes to the heart. So I am staying away from people for a few weeks, staying home, etc.
Although I don’t watch MSM I see enough clips of the leftist claptrap to disagree with you, I think it’s like a constant crazy TDS indoctrination!
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Yeah, I get that. But I only googled it for 30-seconds before putting that list together. But I have been hearing this stuff from my democrat friends and family for years, seeing it in the media, etc. Point being, everyone knows this point has been out there and discussed for some time now. These few articles certainly point to that.
Oh, wait. I read what you said again. I am saying that the mortality rate is being over estimated. Not the counts of cases. The number of actual infections is probably close to 100K in the US, not 5K.
It would have if the CDC hadnt of dropped the ball so badly. South Korea didn’t have any problems with their testing
