I have tried to spread the word that the way the CDC is calculating the covid-19 mortality rate is not the same way they calculate the flu mortality rates. I’d like to find an expert to verify or invalidate this. If this is true, this is highly unethical. Why would they knowing overestimate covid-19 mortality if not to scare or for political motivations? The CDC publishes how they calculate the rates and anyone can do the math.

The difference is that with the flu they use hospitalization rates to estimate total infections. Meaning, if 3 people come into the hospital with the flu, they assume 97 did not, as historically they know that only 3% have systems that need medical attention. Then they use 100 as the total count and divide the number of people that died by the total infections. For covid-19, they are using the 3 people that came into the hospital for the count, not the 100 total infections estimated. We do know that with covid-19, the more series rate is about 80% to 85% of the total based on China, Italy, etc. Using the hospitalization rate and not the total infection estimates, pushes covid-19 rate 80% higher than it should be when comparing it to the flu. I have found some articles that suggestion using age demographics as well. But I cannot be sure if the CDC does or does not use the age demographics for their flu mortality rates. If they do, that would the covid-19 mortality rate another 50% or more higher than it should be compared to the flu. I’m hoping an expert can verify.

The problem here is that they are comparing it to the flu, which is calculated much differently. They need to calculate them the same, as not doing so is extremely unethical. We need an expert to very this and someone needs to call them out on this if this is true.

If you recalculate the rates based on US data, the rate I come up with would be .0037, or about three-tenths of 1%… not the 3.4% they are reporting.

I think it would be worth someone looking into this and verifying. If they are unethically reporting higher rates, they need to be called out on it.

References:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#References

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25738736