A giant hole in your conspiracy here is Trump.
Now you can either say he’s become convinced by democratic propaganda and is throwing away his presidency to them because he’s a victim of an insidious plot that has convinced him to turn socialist and send out checks to Americans and to point to July/August as the time things may begin to return to normal.
Or
You can consider that he’s listened to the advice of people like Dr. Fauci,and while a bit late, is now reinforcing their calls for drastic actions based on the reality that has become evident to everyone.
It’s strange to me that the one time Trump seems to be taking action based on science and reality instead of to score twitter points or troll the libz, he still has supporters hanging onto the faith that if they just keep blaming the media and libz their world will return to normal.
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These flu numbers are over the year, distributed through a system built up around normal numbers occurring through the year.
COVID19 is now, new, hitting quickly, overloading a system not designed for a sudden influx.
I tired of reality last night and watched infowars. Conspiracy theories, every time.
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I think he’s paying attention to the stock market. And in the stock market people only have to believe things are bad to make the market crash.
Philly Guy
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The stock market is responding to countries closing down entire sectors of their economy.
So @hwyflier’s point stands.
As of right now, the CDC is reporting 10,442 known cases and 150 known deaths on their website.
That is a 1.44% known mortality rate.
I would argue that there are at least ten times that number actually infected, but the deaths are the same, which puts the mortality rate even lower. They are just all hitting at once, and it can be a bit scary to folks. My hospital is doing okay, a hospital down the road a bit is getting slammed and they have 15 patients. That is pretty slammed but nowhere near catastrophic.
So if we then use the flu type of approach and try to statistically estimate a valid number of infections, you’d come up with around 50,000 estimated infections using a 20% estimate for known case to unknown infections, hospitalization rate, or sever to mild symptoms… which ever one you decide to use, they all are falling to something around the 20%::80% pattern right now.
That would put the mortality rate to about .003 or .3% or about 3 out of 1000… where the flu stands at about 1 per 1,000. So bad of course, but not the end-of-world that the media is playing it out to be. Not bad enough to justify what we are seeing in the stock market, media, etc. And I would expect this number to go down over time.
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Thanks for posting that. I found one today as well from a prof at Standford. It looks like this stuff is coming to light.
Blockquote Projected out onto the age structure of the U.S. population, he calculates, the death rate is more like 0.125%, with a range of 0.025% to 0.625% based on the sample size:
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That they’re hitting all at once is exactly what’s trying to be mitigated by the social distancing, etc.
Glad to hear they’re holding up where you are at the moment but a reminder this is but day 3-4 of the slope change of the exponential phase.
Also as of yesterday, only 2% of all known cases in the US had resolved. This is just the beginning. Everyone brace yourselves.
Here’s an interesting set of data…not sure what to make of it.
As of yesterday, in the US, deaths made up 62% of all cases that have resolved. Even taking out the nursing home cluster, it’s still 59%.
Italy’s kinda tracked the same way…we’ll see.
Emphasis is on known cases though. There is no way that 62% of all resolved cases were because of death. Once we start testing more widely these numbers will adjust accordingly.
And I am well aware of where we are on the curve, it’s going to get dicey for the next few weeks where I work.
At our hospital I was just fitted for a respiratory device in case we get a COVID case in the Cath Lab, and we have all had to drill on how to gown and glove for procedures. It is a fairly complex regimen but we are ready. We have an ECMO program here, which means we can support 3 patients who would not respond to intubation by bypassing their lungs entirely and oxygenating them via external support.
It does work, but there are very few ECMO units in the Detroit Metro area. I think, counting U of M, we have the capacity to keep around 3 dozens folks alive.
You’re right. As more people get tested, a lot less severe cases will be reported and the mortality rate will drop. The mortality rate for this virus still seems pretty high though.
The irony is in that you are deliberately repeating the hoax that Trump (and/or Fox News and the CEC) said the virus is a hoax.
“If it bleeds it leads; if its not bleeding, poke it with a sharp object.”
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The mortality rate for SARS (which is also a coronavirus) was about 14 - 15% overall and about 50% for victims over 64. Fortunately, it was less contagious.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates-sars-death-rates-revised-upward
That sounds, fun. I’m just gonna run the official numbers as they’re posted. Nothing to waste time arguing about then. 
They have not released an official count for the “infected”. They are simply saying that it is much higher than the current numbers they are releasing. So they know there are many more, they are just not trying to estimate it… yet. I get that. But in due time, those numbers will start to come out, then we will have a better picture.
Whatever that picture is, it’s going to look more like what Trump is saying than what the media is saying.
As of right now, the CDC is reporting 15,219 known cases and 201 known deaths.
That is a 1.32% known mortality rate.
It’s a few weeks so I started this thread. During this time, at least 5 or 6 scientist, doctors, etc. have all come out making basically the same claim that I did here. I think that pretty much proves my point. But it still doesn’t tell us why they knowingly pushed the higher numbers.
Personally, I think the media’s goal has always been to scare people and hope hope it hurts the president. I guess we’ll see how well that works out for them.
They Mortality Rate has been hanging at or below 3% and is about to drop like a rock.
The more people who are tested the faster it will continue to do so.
More importantly, recoveries are almost twice the mortality by number.
