So just bill maher. One person.
It’s hard. 
Uh … just so everyone knows what .5% mortality is, although it looks like the original error (not yours) was in the decimal “.5%” is.
We get the math. It is taught in 5th grade. Its not that hard.
Under your scenario though, 300k is not all that large. The mortality rate in the US is 8.3 per 1000. So .0083 times 60m = 498,000 deaths naturally occurring anyways. An that is the US rate. I am sure the Corona Virus will add to the percentage, but we dont know how much. Even if the mortality rate doubled, that would take it up to 17 deaths per 1000. I attended one funeral last year. So this year I may have to attend 2.
Like Roosevelt said, “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is… fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance”
You are the one who felt the need to correct someone based on a typo 
Could care less about the rest of your posts cold views.
Been reading a lot the past few days (what else is there to do?)
We need to start testing not only sick people but well people.
All the worst case scenarios on health network breakdown and massive spike in deaths are based on assumptions that left unchecked, somewhere between 40-60% of the population will be infected. This is based on an apparent r(0) of 2.6-2.8.
However, we are not seeing an infection rate of 40-60%.
Far from it. We are seeing an infection rate of around 2%-3% in the hardest hit areas of Asia (I’m going mostly of data from South Korea, the only country to my knowledge that is testing everybody, not just sick people).
Now some of this is because of mitigation efforts to control the spread.
However we need to know accurate numbers in order to make the best decisions.
And there’s some evidence coming out to suggest casual exposure doesn’t spread the virus as easy as we thought…that you need more prolonged exposure.
This is why I’ve been an advocate for so much testing…everything we are doing is based on modeling on somewhat biased data sets.
The closest we have to such a data set is the Diamond Princess. There are the conditions were fulfilled…a somewhat reasonable representative distribution (although it is slightly skewed towards an older population), and prolonged exposure.
There the overall infection rate was 16%…but when you break it down by age, it was 23-30% among passengers >70 and closer to 8% for everyone else.
If these are the correct numbers, this would indicate that the virus is nowhere near as communicable as we think it is, and a rethink of strategy targeted to protect our older population is in order.
I am not suggesting such a strategy yet because we don’t have the data.
We should be making every effort to get it.
*Im getting tired of hearing about ■■■■■■■ delays…now I’m reading we are short on swabs for the tests? Are you ■■■■■■■ kidding me?
*Ramp this up…go to a few hot zones around the US and test a large sample of asymptomatic, symptomatic and seriously symptomatic patients there.
*If we have serum antibody tests ready, go back to the hot zone of Wuhan right now and do a series of what they call serosurveys on a large representative sample of Wuhan’s population. These are essentially after the fact tests that can tell whether one has been infected since the immune system will show evidence of this weeks after the fact. Classify these people as to whether they showed symptoms or didn’t show them, and how seriously they got sick.
If anyone is asking, yes this is a change of mindset for me (not for the testing…I’ve been an advocate of that for some time). What else have I had to do over the last few weeknights but read?
The more I read…the more I realize these projections of worse case are modeled on data that’s mostly biased.
There’s no doubt we will still see the health care system under strain starting…well, starting now.
But we are flying semi-blind as to the best way to cope with that.
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Great post
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300,000 is very large when you add it to the already existing 498,000 deaths and collapse our hospitals. That’s not even to mention the lasting lung damages for those who do survive.
Hospitals aren’t virtual serverless cloud services that scale on demand
I agree. Somewhere I was reading, the CDC explained this exactly this way.
LOL. I love irony.
That’s not true.
That’s not true either.
Updated that South Korea is only testing sick people as well…I was corrected in another thread where I posted this.
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The virus is really bad in nursing homes. A couple of them in Washington and one in Texas I know of.
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Most nursing homes are a money racket imo.
It would be an interesting study to see which has a faster spread rate - coronavirus or conspiracy theories.
You don’t add it all. If the patient was 90 years old with serious pre-existing conditions, what did they die of? Corona is replacing other COD in some cases.
Yes…I intended to include that point but couldnt figure out how to express it in writing. Thanks for adding it.
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Correlation / Causation
COVID19 - Democrat hoax meant to bring down Trump presidency. Played by Fox News, repeated by CEC. Ya know, conspiracy. Also in the same breath, making Trump out to be the victim in all this.
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