Still not hard frozen, but soon. Temps are low to mid 30s in the day and mid 20s at night. Day light is about as long as Ohio or Michigan this time of year. Early February is the coldest time of the year. I’d watch the end of the first week of February, that gives Russian Forces time to finish redeployment and final massing of logistics. But if they get a 5-6 day cold snap it could be earlier.
And I have discussed dangers of EU expansionism…when America has interest in Russia because of massive resources that Russia has. And help keep China in check…but none of you neo-cons and lib interventionist want to listen.
So maybe…just maybe it is Tucker Carlson been reading my posts over the years.
And the EU is fractured and not a monolith we saw it almost fall over Greece, then there was Brexit after the migrant crisis. Countries like Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary might as well be on a different planet in terms of shared policies, then it gets worse when you speak of Lithuania and Estonia.
Imho the EU would have faired better being based on Western European countries. The countries in Eastern Europe share little of anything with Western Europe other than proximity. I wish them the best but I don’t see how the thing holds out in the long run.
The more they expand the weaker they get. When a person talks to the average person in Poland or Hungary then think they are in Union with Brussels it’s kind of hilarious.
Here is a pretty good analysis of the real politic in Belarus and points out the political situation for Belarus’s dictator. It also reinforces the information on the scheduled Russian-Belarus “Exercise” scheduled to start on 2/10/2022,
He may be preparing for a vote by his two neighboring Ukrainian provinces to secede to Russia, due to the bullying abuse they have been suffering from Kiev.
It’s a sticky situation granted but we really don’t have ties to the Ukraine especially like Russia does. Kiev was the capital of Rus in the 9th century their history goes way back.
Let’s put it this way remember not to long ago all those people in HK waving American flags who we have way more financial ties with asking to be helped against the crackdown from pressure from China? We didn’t do anything and neither did the UK and if we did we would have been considered crazy.
It won’t be long until Taiwan will be asking for our help from a more and more aggressive China, no one is going to risk or think we should send troops to Taiwan to protect them from China. Again another country we have more financial ties with than the Ukraine. Sending Troops to the Ukraine is stupid and will we see the anti war marches on Washington if Biden follows through and sends 8500 American troops to the Ukraine.
This one isn’t our fight, they are not a NATO country and what’s more than likely to happen instead of just reaching a settlement with Russia saying Ukraine will remain a buffer state NATO is likely to doom the Ukraine to Russia. Regardless of the chest thumping I have been hearing in congress and the media every defense agency from JANE to RAND says it will be a lopsided victory for Russia. It will be a lot more detrimental to NATO if the Ukraine becomes a satellite of Russia or worse is consumed by them than them remaining a buffer country.
Apparently Putin is deploying naval assets for February live fire "exercises’ world wide. The one in the Atlantic is going to occur Southwest of Ireland, in the area where the undersea data cables between the US and Europe approach the UK. Again in mid February, just like the land forces exercise in Belarus.