War with Russia?

Unlikely
More likely, a stable buffer between himself and the encroachment of the west.

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He may be preparing for a vote by his two neighboring Ukrainian provinces to secede to Russia, due to the bullying abuse they have been suffering from Kiev.

It’s a sticky situation granted but we really don’t have ties to the Ukraine especially like Russia does. Kiev was the capital of Rus in the 9th century their history goes way back.

Let’s put it this way remember not to long ago all those people in HK waving American flags who we have way more financial ties with asking to be helped against the crackdown from pressure from China? We didn’t do anything and neither did the UK and if we did we would have been considered crazy.

Screenshot 2022-01-25 235504

It won’t be long until Taiwan will be asking for our help from a more and more aggressive China, no one is going to risk or think we should send troops to Taiwan to protect them from China. Again another country we have more financial ties with than the Ukraine. Sending Troops to the Ukraine is stupid and will we see the anti war marches on Washington if Biden follows through and sends 8500 American troops to the Ukraine.

This one isn’t our fight, they are not a NATO country and what’s more than likely to happen instead of just reaching a settlement with Russia saying Ukraine will remain a buffer state NATO is likely to doom the Ukraine to Russia. Regardless of the chest thumping I have been hearing in congress and the media every defense agency from JANE to RAND says it will be a lopsided victory for Russia. It will be a lot more detrimental to NATO if the Ukraine becomes a satellite of Russia or worse is consumed by them than them remaining a buffer country.

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Apparently Putin is deploying naval assets for February live fire "exercises’ world wide. The one in the Atlantic is going to occur Southwest of Ireland, in the area where the undersea data cables between the US and Europe approach the UK. Again in mid February, just like the land forces exercise in Belarus.

Ireland tells Russia live-fire naval exercise is ‘not welcome’

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Is Biden in the GOP?

I guess you don’t care. Your boy, the One Horse Dog Faced Pony Soldier got your back.

Here is another thing few are speaking about; at least in public on why getting involved in Ukraine is not a wise idea. This maps source WaPo
Screenshot 2022-01-26 002101

shows the countries divide on predominant language. Also keep in mind the area in blue overwhelmingly voted for Viktor Yanukovych who was basically the Russian puppet but at the time was democratically elected. It was after he was overthrown in Kiev that Russia took Crimea and the separatist war started. It’s not like everyone in the Ukraine are pro west it’s divided just like we are as are most countries. They have a plethora of pro EU, pro Russia, communists, and yes even fascists all jumbled up in the country.

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Ukraine is a special case.

On a morality level I agree with you.

From a realpolitik standpoint, allowing Ukraine into NATO would have been a horrible idea. And I have to go with my realpolitik feelings on it.

Ukraine and Belarus are the natural borders of the Russian sphere. It sucks, but I’m not willing to set up the conditions for a nuclear war over them.

In a nutshell, Russia gets those two. It’s unfortunate. But it’s just the reality.

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Seems to me NATO and the EU are the expansionists.

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Bad for whom?

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They are not fascists. There is however a very strong nationalism movement in Ukraine… for some reason there is a bit of an issue with national identity. They also worked with nazis against the Soviet Union but they are not fascists they just hate Russians.

Perhaps not but the proud, outright Nazi’s are a large enough and influential enough group that whatever philosophy the majority follow, keeping the Azov group happy is required to stave off another coup.

Oh yeah they are def nazis. They are just not fascists is all

Quite right.

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Yes, as a reaction to the Soviet Union’s expansionism of the second half of the twentieth century.

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Not surprising:

When Ukraine’s military shot down Russian reconnaissance drones, for example, they discovered electronics and motors bought from hobby drone companies in Western Europe, according to a report published in November by Conflict Armament Research, a company based in Britain that specializes in tracing weaponry.

From today’s NYT.

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It’s funny how things change, isn’t it? Russia is now a kinship ally of the right not the left.

But many of these folks never read or listened to what Steve Bannon was actually saying he wanted to do.

I will say even if they did listen to Bannon, they’d probably approve.

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From a realpolitik point of view I agree as well.

But Russia is an adversary, not a country or a culture to be admired, is all I am saying.

Although it didn’t have to be that way.

We screwed up the end of the Cold War so badly it’s not even funny, and I lay a lot of that at the feet of Bill Clinton.

Many a day goes by when I wish Bush could have been more engaging so he could have won a second term

The world could be different today if he had.

Bill Clinton.

And to think, a flukey small plane crash in the cold north is what kept us from stepping off the course Reagan laid and Clinton plowed into scars and furrows