War with Russia?

[Dem]

@NJBob

@tzu

Long enough to take advantage of the usual winter freeze. It just hasn’t cooperated this year. Ukraine is having a very mild winter. This affects not only the end and onset of the two muddy seasons, but Putin’s options for his version of shock and awe.

Whether or not Putin wants to complicate everything for himself, by coming through Byelorus, or trying to capture Odessa by sea, those are real questions. The Russians already have illicit trafficking presences in Odessa, but it’s also the city easiest to traffick arms into from the West, and Russians can expect stiff partisan opposition and a very high body count.

Russia’s professional soldiers have gained considerable operational experience in Syria, but the people who will be expected to hold gains will be conscripts with no combat experience, and no counter-insurgency or urban warfare training.

Russia will not invade. Putin is just saber rattling because of his low popularity at home.

Maybe. But Belarus is sending troops to their border as well. If Lukashenko and Putin are both saber rattling, what’s the end game?

We will know soon enough. If we get another 100k troops at the border, and see logistical supply routes being developed. Then invasion is probably inevitable.

[Guntsu]

@conan

Then YOU protect em…using your own money and not 1 single penny from American people.

Nato is America, the current post WW2 system was made by America for America and it payed off in spades.

We are the undisputed military power and intend to keep it that way

[Dem]

Then should have NATO/EU refused the request from Ukraine to join?

[NJBob]

@Dem

@NJBob

@tzu

Long enough to take advantage of the usual winter freeze. It just hasn’t cooperated this year. Ukraine is having a very mild winter. This affects not only the end and onset of the two muddy seasons, but Putin’s options for his version of shock and awe.

Whether or not Putin wants to complicate everything for himself, by coming through Byelorus, or trying to capture Odessa by sea, those are real questions. The Russians already have illicit trafficking presences in Odessa, but it’s also the city easiest to traffick arms into from the West, and Russians can expect stiff partisan opposition and a very high body count.

Russia’s professional soldiers have gained considerable operational experience in Syria, but the people who will be expected to hold gains will be conscripts with no combat experience, and no counter-insurgency or urban warfare training.

Russia will not invade. Putin is just saber rattling because of his low popularity at home.

Maybe. But Belarus is sending troops to their border as well. If Lukashenko and Putin are both saber rattling, what’s the end game?

We will know soon enough. If we get another 100k troops at the border, and see logistical supply routes being developed. Then invasion is probably inevitable.

Lukashenko is Putin’s lap dog.

The end game is to solidify Putin’s position as Russia’s leader.

[Dem]

@NJBob

The end game is to solidify Putin’s position as Russia’s leader.

Is his position at risk? Risking sanctions and angering the oligarchs seems like a bad way to go about it.

[NJBob]

That’s exactly why he won’t invade.

[fallenturtle]

@Jezcoe

@fallenturtle

@Bosun

Actually Whoopi was named after a Whoopie cushion. Just joking…

Actually…

“She has stated that her stage forename (“Whoopi”) was taken from a whoopee cushion: “When you’re performing on stage, you never really have time to go into the bathroom and close the door. So if you get a little gassy, you’ve got to let it go. So people used to say to me, ‘You’re like a whoopee cushion.’ And that’s where the name came from.””

I guess she passed a lot of gas on stage? Gross.

Whoopi Goldberg - Wikipedia

I worked on a terrible children’s show many years ago with her called “Whoopi’s Littleburg” and she was lovely.

I’m sure… I just don’t like toilet humor.

[e7alr]

History has shown that when you anger Putin a GRU team visits and people die., What does an oligarck do if you anger him? And it is also big business, very profitable business, offering services to get around sanctions. China won’t honor the sanctions.

[Bosun]

China should set up a port and military base in Cuba. Iran should set up a military base in Venezuela and maybe a nuclear facility.

[Orygun]

@NJBob

That’s exactly why he won’t invade.

Id give it a 90 percent chance he won’t invade and this is a power play to bolster his image as standing up to the West etc- sort of a Kim Jong Il shooting missiles kind of move.

But man 100 k troops at the border? I’d give it a strong 10 percent chance that he is testing the waters- seeing how the West will react- and if we appear weak he will bite at least a chunk off of Ukraine.

[Bosun]

Just like a plug of chewing tobacco.

[WuWei]

Has the war started yet?

[Dem]

I don’t know a lot about Russia. But the Oligarchs have quite a bit of power in Russia. Hurt their purse strings, and they could decide Putin power is no longer in their best interest.

[WuWei]

Good point.

[Dem]

@Bosun

China should set up a port and military base in Cuba. Iran should set up a military base in Venezuela and maybe a nuclear facility.

I don’t really care for the Russian point of view. Nor do I care for Russian expansionionism, or appeasement 2.0.

[e7alr]

He is still positioning forces in Belarus. It’s looking like a classic envelopment. Major force deployment in the East all along the border, Major force to the North on the Belarus-Ukrainian border within 1 days road march of Kiev. An unknown is what are the Belarus forces going to do. They seem to be in for a penny allowing him to stage in their territory. Will they be in for a pound and supply forces.

[WuWei]

How’s the mud though?

[conan]

No, NATO is not the same when it was created. Now it’s being used for EU expansion…and that’s a fact

[conan]

Yes…unless you want to go to war with Russia. If you want to go to war then pick up a gun at you’re own expense

[Dem]

I don’t want war with Russia. But I also don’t think NATO should outright refuse membership to a country who doesn’t want to be invaded by Russia.