A long in-depth study as to what we can expect for the world economy when the lockdowns finally end.
The summary- we are in for a world of hurt, thanks to a lot of built-in structural difficulties that COVID has dramatically exposed, including:
- Oil and commodity prices being too LOW for producers
- The knock on effects being that wages cannot be generated sufficiently to allow wage-earners’ robust participation in the economy (kind of a viscious cycle- if wager earners can’t afford goods and services, it depresses demand for commodities, lowering their price and beginning the cycle all over again) and
- We have been butting up against resource shortages for some time because of this cycle and because resources ARE becoming scarcer and harder (more energy-intensive) to produce
- Central banks flooding an already debt-flooded world economy won’t help
This person is a huge pessimist, and she’s going to throw out ideas the some here will both accept (shutdowns will irreparably hurt the economy) and reject (there are resource constraints driving a lot of this).
To be honest…I share her pessimism.