Polls moving toward Nelson (D) over Scott (R) in Florida…
Quinniapac: Nelson +7
NBC/Marist Nelson +3
That is good to see. I now think that Nelson is going to win his reelection by mainly doing much better among white voters than Hillary. She did terrible among white voters in Florida, and that was a big reason why she lost that state to Trump.
538 now has Rosen with a 53.4% of winning and Sinema with a 68.5% chance of winning. I will be voting for Sinema in Arizona here.
Senate race in New Jersey is a dead heat according to this poll.
The poll shows Menendez ahead 45% to 43% of likely voters. Worse for Menendez is that 54% view him unfavorably and only 30% favorably.
His R opponent, Hugin is viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorable by 21% with the rest not sure. This is to be expected as an incumbent would have almost 100% name ID compared to the challenger.
Trump also had a less than 50% chance of winning.
Do I think the Dems will take back the Senate? Absolutely not.
But if the last election taught us anything, we live in strange times.
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Yeah… Menendez sucks and Hugin is running a good campaign… not too surpriseing.
Ok, but this is New Jersey, and midterm elections usually favor the party not in the WH.
Menendez was under investigation a long time for bribes and that ended in a mistrial. He should have stepped down.
Hugin is running good add about Menendez and is avoiding sayin the T word as much as possible.
It isn’t a surprise that a politician who comes off as really dirty is in a dead heat with an actually good opponent.
To be honest this isn’t really a case of the GOP winning the swat but one of the Dems losing it.
It would be the same thing if BEto beat Cruz… I would see it as a seat that the GOP lost instead of the Dems losing.
That’s all.
As of today, Nate Silver and his posse currently peg the Democrats at a 2 in 7 chance of retaking the Senate.
without the senate, his judicial appointments stop to a crawl.
Thats the way it is.
Allan
Menendez will win 53-47
Allan
Lunged left.
are you sure you are talking about the senators who are up for reelection in Trump States
Nelson…a leftist
Manchin–socialist by gum
Heitcamp–Democratic Socialist
Donnelly–nearly a communist
Casey–radical lefty
Tester–weather underground lefty.
see how silly that is…
Allan
As my dad would say, “If they have a “D” next to their names, they’re a communist.”
He said this after I asked him what policy position the candidate had that made them a communist. It’s beyond ridiculous. The CEC has made a whole generation of men mentally retarded.
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Yup Menendez is a bad candidate and Haugen is running a good campaign. I do think Menendez will narrowly win- just as I think Cruz will- somewhere between 3-5 points in both elections.
Yes, there’s a whole lot of stupidity on the right, but I feel sorry for them. Fox News and talk radio just sandblasting away at their brains like that? When do they ever get a break?
And Shumer would probably follow the McConnell example and keep the Senate in session via “pro forma” sessions so that Trump can’t make recess appointments.
.>>>>
I think when all is said and done you will probably be correct on both counts.
However, one thing that does seem very, very likely now is that Heitkamp is done.
Red state voters want Kavanaugh confirmed. In WV it’s 6 out of 10 people. And it’s why I think Manchin will vote yes on Friday, absent any big bombshell. But I don’t think that would help her.
Wow that’s a big change- not entirely surprising- and you are right that the Kavanaugh nomination is likely to play very badly for Dems in Red states and equally badly for the Republicans in blue states.
We are one polarized country.
I also would be kinda shocked if the Dems took Tennessee even though the polls show it close. I just don’t see Beto pulling it off in Texas.
So at this point I’d say the Dems chances for retaking are pretty tiny- maybe 5-10 percent chance. If Dems take Florida they may pick up one seat if they are lucky but tie goes to Pence.
Yes, i could easily see things playing out next month as you describe. With the exception of Joe Manchin, it won’t be surprising if red state Dems are almost wiped out. But Dems will likely make big gains in other areas.
As you say, we are very polarized.
