You will never have a vaccine more than 25% effective in a given year. And it will be at least a year before you get that.
I’m not just guessing or talking about studies with no links…
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You are???
Yep.
…
Ignoring the asymptomatic.
So you can’t go out. Go to your local piggy wiggly, tractor supply, lowes and stand shoulder to shoulder like we can here in Indiana? I thought your governor was far ahead of the game?
How is ignoring the asymptomatic changing anything? Moving goalposts?
I can do whatever I want. He asked nicely.
My clients are multinational corporations and risk adverse. Without liability protection, they’ll wait as long as they can. Their main offices are in places like Harris and Dallas counties, which are dragging the state down.
It’s trickling back. Abbott’s done a good job. We didn’t overwhelm the hospitals or run short of ventilators.
Have you seen him on tv crying?
We have judges here, they’ve been an issue.
Same here in Indiana…but I’m not on lockdown! Are you?
You have no idea how many there are and your assumption was “if they get sick” then you extrapolated a fatality rate on to that. You don’t even have a valid fatality rate because of the asymptomatic.
Not moving anything.
I explained it.
Let me ask this. Will you be arrested if you go to lowes to buy a new kitchen sink?
No. And now I won’t be arrested for opening a barber shop.
That number is off by 17 by worldo.
Gettin’ Hot?
Ok gloomer
375 posts and only what, 3 or 4 links? See, it can be done! Refreshing.
Thanks to all who participated.
You coulda used webmd. It would have been more fun.
We’re not freezing the economy for a year while they come up with a vaccine for CV. That’s unrealistic.
8-16 million? That’s absurd. The numbers have been updated time and time again to show those gross overestimates were wrong based on models that were wrong. And we’re the closet epidemiologist…
And here’s the post you glossed over with a link to an actual study, not just some webmd google hit.
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The real multiplier is unknown, but it is at least 20x in my estimation given samples in NY and CA.
At least 20X is ~7 million. That’s 0.3 mortality in NY. At 50X, that’s basically the entire states population (which I don’t believe it’s quite that high) we’re looking at 0.12%.
When do we open back up?
Well, you first get control of it to protect those most vulnerable. Mitigation efforts in Michigan have worked, we should be down to a dozen or so deaths a day in a few weeks. Fewer than a few hundred new infections a day as well.
Next, you test. The CDC recommendation for Michigan is for us to do 15k tests a day and that the rate of positive tests not exceed 10 percent. We have hit both of those benchmarks already and by months end will exceed them.
Then you simply train contact tracers to follow any new infections and isolate those involved to prevent further spread. We have already fully trained 3,500 tracers and will have over 5k before stay at home orders are lifted.
At that point, you ease restrictions while watching for flare ups. If you can contain them keep easing restrictions until they are basically back to normal. All of this should take Michigan about another month. By the fourth of July we should be basically at a very good place.
In the meantime we are making cars again, we are ramping up and watching things carefully. It won’t take forever but doing things right is important and we are doing it. Other states are not. Let’s see, at the end of Summer, who was right. If early openers are right then us in Michigan will still benefit. If the more cautious states were right I am still doing great but a lot of Red States may be in trouble.
The you ain’t on lockdown!
