True, but my statement is prefaced with “if a cease fire were to be negotiated.”
That’s not the position you started with.
this is.
While I agree that your switch to a negotiated cease fire would make Ukaraine fools for violating it, They would also be fools for agreeing to it with the terms Putin has laid out to even begin talking.
It’s basically a stalemate, as it has been for the last 18 months. Russia’s biggest advancement has been the maturation of their glide bomb tactics. For Ukraine it has been their deep strike capabilities with drones. So Russia has improved their tactical air support, while Ukraine has improved their strategic strike forces. I am still in a wait and see mode about what F16s and Mirage jets will mean in this. I don’t think they will get enough, and don’t know how aggressive they will be in challenging the Russian Air Defenses with them.
I don’t know how quickly. The plan is for around 100 F-16 plus however mirages in 5 years
Conversations elvolve. Keep up.
evolve? in one post?
I know you said “if a negotiated cease fire”, my comment was referencing the fact that in the post immediately before that there was nothing about negotiation, in fact, it was pretty clear that none was your point.
do follow along
Enough to make a token contribution, but not enough, fast enough to change the situation. Same old song and dance, don’t win, but don’t lose.
I am watching the situation South of Chasiv Yar right now. The Russians are moving to cut the MSR and encircle the village. They already have the MSR in artillery range and will probably be within direct fire range in the next 2 weeks. They are massing more forces near Kharkiv also. I think the push towards Kharkiv is a feint, meant to draw forces away from the center and keep them tied down protecting the approaches to that major urban center.
Doesn’t seem to have changed any in the last couple weeks. Ukraine has managed to push back a little both south and north of Chasiv Yar forcing the Russians to go back to frontal meat wave assaults. Reserves in the east have been sent to Kharkiv direction and they pretty much stopped any attempts to move in any armored vehicles. The gains are all due to glide bomb attacks. Russian artillery has proven fairly ineffective. The Russians have also lost 2 or 3 fixed wing aircraft here in the last couple weeks and from one thing I read glide bomb attacks have slowed from 30-50 a day to 8.
The more critical area for Ukraine seems to be west of Andrivka where the slow slogging gains are approaching an MSR that runs through from Chasiv Yar to Petrovsk. If they don’t stop the Russians dead there, it could develop badly. They’ve slowed the Russians there, but they have not stopped them or pushed back.
As far as Kharkiv goes… who knows. I thought the same, but you don’t strip reserves from the main thrust to the faint unless you’re either completely stupid, or things are in danger of collapsing and leaving you vulnerable. Though that seems far fetched since Ukraine won’t invade Belgorad (maybe they should)
My biggest doubts about Ukraine have not changed. They just do not seem willing to pay the blood price, always looking for a way to counter Russia with the least effort possible and the least risk possible. Sometimes you have to lose to wn.
The MSR you’re referring to is the one I’m watching also. Chasiv Yar sits on the key terrain feature in the area. It is clearly the main objective for that sector.
yeah, it’s been a couple weeks since they’ve gotten any closer. It’s is the biggest risk for Ukraine atm.
Yes. Haven’t you been in a conversation before?
Yes, that’s how the conversation went. You’re just finally catching up. The way conversations here go is you respond to the post you take issue with, not to the post after that one.
Now do you have something pertinent to add to the conversation or are you just here to play footsie?
I suspect if Trump wins he will try to negotiate a treaty.
I doubt that he will continue to throw mountains of money and equiptment their way like Brandon.
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Let’s hope because this one is another forever war. This time being fought by drones and artillery.
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Well it looks like a treaty can be hammered out and Ukraine only loses a small part of the country or stubbornly refuse to negotiate and lose it all.
The russians are happy to grind it out like they did against the germans in ww2. Lots of lives lost mean nothing to those tyrants.
Plus we could do a ton of needed things here with the tens of billions being sent there.
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Did you miss what Trump actually said?
- What will he do if Putin does not agree to peace?
“Flood Ukraine with more and better weapons than Putin ever thought of”
- What would he send them?
“Missiles, drones, bombs whatever they need”
The difference of course would be he would grant loans to Ukraine to buy the weapons from us, which I have no problem with. I do note he said they could pay the loan back later… if ever.
no, its not. It’s an until Ukraine kicks Russia out of Crimea war.
Two plus years of arm-twisting from Washington to send air-defense systems to Ukraine have left US allies in Europe virtually defenseless against Russian missiles.
Now the US is reportedly redirecting systems that were supposed to replace the ones already sent to Ukraine. It is clear that the current policy is to put Ukraine first and NATO allies last.
Does this explain why Azov is back on the approved list for US military aid?
In a June 16 interview with the news channel of Ukraine’s army, Armiya TV, an Azov commander admitted to his unit being used to prevent other Ukrainian units from retreating.
Dmitry Kukharchuk, the commander of the Second Battalion of Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade, the current iteration of the neo-Nazi-linked unit, recounts a moment in 2022 when his unit was positioned behind a unit of Ukraine’s territorial defense forces (TRO) to prevent its retreat:
We [Azov] were motivational troops then. We then helped the 110th brigade of the TRO. I can’t say anything bad about them, because for a TRO they fought quite well, but, again, as a TRO they had to be motivated. And then my detachment—I was then the commander of a detachment of 500 men—was evenly distributed along a 25-kilometer line….
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/azov-leader-admits-to-ukrainian-use-of-blocking-detachments/
Stalin reportedly used similar units to shoot retreating troops in WW2.
Is this just another example of Ukraine reverting back to its Soviet past?
Or have barrier troops become part of the NATO training program?
This is interesting.
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