■■■■ china
that would be up to Ukraine
yet to be determined
It is a different dynamic with China as a Russian ally.
It will take a US and EU alliance WITH China to get Russia to back off.
There is also Iran stirring ■■■■ in the background.
We need a diplomatic A Team to get in gear.
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Ain’t happening with this inept administration
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That is putting it very DIPLOMATICALLY.
maybe, maybe not. It depends on one thing and one thing only. At some point, will Ukraine be able to take Crimea? If they can, Putin is done and the war is over. I think they still can. They were missing something in their offensive (more than one something) because of Biden’s determination to make sure they have enough to not lose, but never enough to win (which of course is a recipe for losing).
Russia’s current offensive seems to be culminating so I expect a period of lessened activity. Ukaraine is training more troops, and they are getting the right weapon systems (slowly). They have no reason to surrender to Putin’s insane demands right now.
do you know what Putin’s demands to even have a cease fire are?
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It’s not going to happen just been watching the diseaster from the side. Every single day according to the Institute of War Ukraine loses territory to Russia yet you wouln’td think that seeing the wests response holding peace conferences with only one side there. I mostly quit participating in the Ukrainian war conversations, let them lose another war, instead of trying diplomacy.
It reminds me of this meme
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That was a good one.
Symbolism over Substance.
Don’t you just love the US committing more than a billion dollars to the Ukraine for the war effort at a peace summit.
Anybody else see the irony here?
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Not necessarily. If Russia quit attacking, quit bombing, quit shooting, and pulled back to a purely defensive position, Ukraine would be foolish to press an attack that would force Russia to reengage. Yes, that decision would technically be up to Ukraine, but they aren’t suicidal, and they very much need a break.
Ukraine is never going to retake Crimea. The only effective offensive they have executed was against withdrawing Russian units that had been caught out over their skis in the logistics battle. The Ukrainian offensive sputter to a stand still in a week last summer. Ukraine has the power to defend, not attack. This will just continue to be a static meat grinder until one side gets tired of their citizens dying.
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with the Russian offensive culminating and Ukraine beginning to push back in some area’s, I doubt they think they need a break as much as they need ammunition.
I disagree wholly. The Ukranian offensive sputtered for two reasons.
- Lack of air cover
- Slow pace of western aid.
I don’t know if you’re aware, but all those promised tanks they were supposed to have gotten… most were not in Ukraine when the offensive began. If you look at confirmed losses, they still have the majority of them, including the Abrams we sent. Most of the offensive was fought using soviet equipment with a spattering of leopards and bradleys thrown in.
I’m not saying they would have won if they had them, they still lacked air cover. They are slowly pushing Russian AD out of Crimea, without it, Crimea is vulnerable. Especially once Ukraine starts using F-16’s that will improve SEAD missions. They will also have to learn how to integrate air power into their offense. They will have to figure out how to do one of three very difficult things.
Cross the Dnieper
a. Nova Khakovka. It would be a tough battle; they would have to break the Russians here, but they don’t have to go through multiple lines of defense to get to it. If they do break the Russian defenses here, all of Kherson will fall and they will be at the gates of Crimea.
b. North of the dam. May be an easier crossing, though more exposed. They will need to provide aircover and air defense to succeed and risk some systems. If they can establish a sufficient Bridgehead, they will eventually force a Russian withdrawal from Nova Khakovka and subsequently the rest of Kherson. (This one would be a slog)
c. Tokmak. Harder, but with sufficient aircover… maybe. They really only need to take three towns to get to it, but its the same three towns they needed to take last summer.
With the new units Training on corps competencies, I would expect a little more cohesion and purpose than last summer. Last summer they were set up as separate brigades each committed one at a time and each doing their best to not fully commit. If what I’ve been reading is right, the new units are being trained as a single corps of 10 BDE’s. Which should mean massing for attacks of something bigger than a BN.
In any event, if they can take Kherson back and kill the Kerch Bridge, Crimea is untenable. Have to wait and see
If a cease fire were to be negotiated, Ukraine would be fools to immediately break it. They would almost certainly lose the support of NATO.
Both armies are good at old fashioned trench defense. Russia has more meat for the grinder than Ukraine. They still have the artillery advantage on the front. Neither side’s tanks are doing ■■■■ offensively because of the guided AT weapons, and minefields Any tank spotted by either side gets wacked in short order by a drone, or an artillery strike.
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China smiles like the butchers dog.
China Mocks Zelensky ‘Peace Summit’: No Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Bails Early https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/06/17/china-mocks-zelensky-peace-summit-no-joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-bails-early/
Wish Russia could see how they are being used.
Russia deciding to take a break is not a negotiated cease fire.
do they? I know they have more population, but they have their own mobilization problems. They’re running out of prisoners for easy fodder and are having to resort to enticing foreigners to fight for them. In absolute terms, yes. In terms of being able to mobilize without creating domestic problems, I’m not so sure.
The way Russia employs artillery they need a numerical advantage to achieve qualitative equivalence. They have been losing the counter battery war. In some cases, badly.
aside from that we both know what it takes to defeat the rest of it. Airpower. You must be able to exert air superiority and press the advantage at the point of contact and you have to be willing to push through the hard part. Neither side has shown that willingness so far largely because neither side has been particularly adept at anything other than small unit tactics. Ukraine moreso than Russia.
