US Deals Heavy Blow to China Tech Ambitions With Nvidia Chip Ban

Chipmakers trust this administration enough to break ground on new buildings in the United States, to the tune of billions of dollars.

But I’m encouraged that most of the criticism is framed that way–against Biden himself and not the policy. That means the GOP will be absorbing these proven ideas into its platform in near future. That’s a win for everyone.

This is something I can be happy about.

https://www.wsgr.com/en/insights/bis-implements-new-semiconductor-and-supercomputer-related-export-controls-and-end-use-controls.html

America’s restrictionists—zero-sum thinkers who urgently want to accelerate technological decoupling—have won the strategy debate inside the Biden administration. More cautious voices—technocrats and centrists who advocate incremental curbs on select aspects of China’s tech ties—have lost. This shift portends even harsher U.S. measures to come, not only in advanced computing but also in other sectors (like biotech, manufacturing, and finance) deemed strategic. The pace and details are uncertain, but the strategic objective and political commitment are now clearer than ever. China’s technological rise will be slowed at any price.

New rules are out in the top link. They are above my understanding. I am satisfied with the analyst’s opinion.

Considering that a large portion of the technical workforce in the US is made up of Chinese nationals, I assume that China already has access to all the information they need without Nvidia chips.

To build chips using leading-edge process technologies, TSMC needs leading-edge chip production equipment from companies like ASML, Applied Materials, and KLA.

Even if China invades the island and seizes TSMC’s fabs without access to advanced equipment and ultra-pure raw materials, it will be impossible for China not only to keep developing leading-edge manufacturing nodes but to keep production on current technologies uninterrupted.

“TSMC needs to integrate global elements before producing high-end chips,” Chen Ming-tong, director-general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, told Taiwanese lawmakers this week, reports Bloomberg. “Without components or equipment like ASML’s lithography equipment, without any key components, there is no way TSMC can continue its production.”

On the chip design side of matters, things are considerably more complex. Local chip developers barely have experience with the design of ultra-large supercomputer-grade chips.

Meanwhile, Taiwan and the U.S. now restrict the hiring of chip specialists by Chinese companies, so getting the right talent will be harder for Chinese companies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/asml-orders-us-employees-to-stop-servicing-customers-in-china

If I’m understanding correctly, they are still dependent enough on foreign expertise that they wouldn’t be able to develop chips even if they stole the equipment.

Biden’s rule seems to have China by the nuts. ASML is irreplaceable according to the Taiwanese, and they pulled the emergency brakes for their US personnel on Chinese projects.

It would seem that Xi underestimated the challenges China faced in overcoming its reliance on foreign, mostly U.S. firms, in key ‘core’ or ‘hard’ technologies such as semiconductors,” Paul Triolo, the technology policy lead at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge, told CNBC.

He also did not account for growing U.S. concern over semiconductors as foundational to key technologies.”

Things did not look as “bleak” for China’s semiconductors in 2017 as they do now, Triolo said.

“The latest chip rules are a sign that Washington is not trying to rebuild relations with Beijing. Instead, the U.S. is making it clear that it’s taking this competition more seriously than it ever has, and is willing to take steps that were once unthinkable,” Prakash said.

New rules are looking very effective so far. Xi didn’t account for an American administration embracing industrial policy. Traditionally, that’s not our economic strategy.

A Chinese story was recently translated into English. It describes Chinese chip plants shutting down as recent sanctions have forced US citizens to stop work and leave China or lose their US citizenship.

We will see if the reported effects are permanent or just temporary.

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I wonder if there enough political capital for a really fast chips act 2 to catch all of that expertise.

Doesn’t matter if they join company in Europe or south America or Australia or Korea, as long as it’s not in China, give some kind of economic incentive to hold them there.

We can snatch them up later as more American fabs get built.

Brandon is talking out his ass, he can’t take their citizenship.

Americans can face felony charges for violating US technology export laws.

I don’t think that the laws apply to foreigners, so people with dual US-China citizenship may be able to renounce their US citizenship to avoid violations of the law.

There is no such thing as “dual citizenship” for government.

“US person” includes permanent residents. Presumably if people renounce their citizenships and/or end permanent-residency status, they would no longer be US persons.

China’s tech industry wounded, US tech on the rise, and the National Review finds a way to be wrong somehow.

In the race for global tech supremacy, the United States will not beat China by becoming China, as many pundits today effectively argue it will. America should instead re-embrace and extend the innovation culture that made our nation’s information-technology sector a global powerhouse: open markets, skilled workers, vibrant capital markets, and flexible public policies that reward bold entrepreneurial endeavors.

Do you feel like we are a powerhouse? American industries are still on their knees waiting for Chinese chips

The let’s-be-more-like-China crowd calls for a different approach: retrench and re-shore, break off global trade ties, massively boost government support for favored firms and sectors, and do a whole lot more bureaucratic steering of tech markets toward predetermined ends.

What’s inherently Chinese about the bolded? They don’t have a monopoly on the idea. Re-trenching and re-shoring critical supply chains is a lesson everyone should have learned from the pandemic.

Over 40 new semiconductor ecosystem projects announced across the U.S., including the construction of new semiconductor manufacturing facilities (fabs), expansions of existing sites, and facilities that supply the materials and equipment used in chip manufacturing

Nearly $200 billion in private investments announced across 16 states to increase domestic manufacturing capacity

40,000 new high-quality jobs announced in the semiconductor ecosystem as part of the new projects, which will support many more jobs throughout the broader U.S. economy

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/us-hits-turning-point-china-competition-intel-ceo

The CHIPS and Science Act was a clear statement that we are going to win back the semiconductor industry, we are going to be manufacturing it

In 5 months, the CHIPS act has delivered hard, quantifiable results and put the business world on notice that the United States intends to become lead and produce in this industry.

What’s the grievance? From just what you quoted, they’re sort of correct.

You want slave labor in the US?

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Thanks Trump

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They’re arguing against bureaucratic steering and government support of domestic chipmaking while it’s clearly a winning strategy against Chinese technology.

They are academics biting at the ankles of a policy that reverses the trend of Chinese dominance, just because this strategy doesn’t fit their ideology.

There is no “Chinese technology.”

China is stealing technology and using slave labor to manufacture the products cheaply.

The authors are correct, we can’t do that.

What we can do is manufacture them here a different way - innovation.

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Giving the companies subsidies for manufacturing here is a way to counter the slave labor advantage too.

Innovation is great and should be pursued, but bribing manufacturers to break ground on our continent works in a pinch.

image

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