Pollsters haven’t figure out anything about Trump voters. Trump’s odds of victory according to the polls in 2016 were 1 in 7 to 1 in 8. Hillary supporters and people who don’t know statistics assumed that meant the election was certain to go to Clinton, but all it meant was that Trump was a long shot… and long shots do win some of the time.
At present, the signs are not good for Trump’s re-election. His presence in the White House has galvanized Democratic turnout. His popularity has been consistently at record lows. Groups that supported him (suburban voters, midwest blue collar voters) have shifted about +7% Democratic in the special elections since Trump’s election and the November 2016 election. In the past month, the polls have shown the first signs of deterioration of support in the base (non-college educated white men for instance).
So regardless of who the Democrats nominate, Trump is likely to be a long shot again. And if the odds are 1 in 8 for a Trump victory again… that does not mean the Democrats have it locked.
Of course, Trump’s actions, as well as events in the world beyond his control, could shift all those calculations. Trump has shown little appetite for appealing to those who don’t show up for his rallies… and right now his unwillingness to do that is reducing his chances in 2020.
I agree. I think A LOT of republican voters in 2016 were more “anti-Hillary” than they were “pro-Trump”. Will there be a substantial “anti-Democrat” vote in 2020? Of course, but I don’t think you’re also going to get the independents, the moderate republicans, and the apathetic democrats like you got in 2016. The anti-hillary vote was huge. I don’t think Trump gets that again in 2020.
So are you saying that in an electorate split between Independents, Democrats and Republicans, where Republicans are the smallest group of the three, all a candidate has to do is get Republican votes? I am not sure that works without massive suppression of the votes among the other two groups.
Support for Trump among self proclaimed Independent voters was much higher in 2016 than it is today. If I were working for Trump’s reelection that would worry me.
Obama got more votes in PA, MI and WI than Trump did. All the Dems need to do is nominate someone who won’t make those Obama voters vote against them or make them just want to stay home. After, these four years, it’s going to be hard for the Dems to nominate such a person this time around.
I would put more weight on the power of the anti-Hillary vote among Independents than among Republicans. How many Republicans vote cross over? And as 538 has demonstrated, there has been about a 10% shift in the composition of the Republican Party under Trump – with anti-Trump Republicans moving into the Independent Column and Independents moving to become Republicans. In net this has been an equal exchange, so it does not hurt Republican base numbers, but if you assume a winner has to cobble together their Party plus some Independents to get a majority, this trend should greatly worry Republicans.
Only Elizabeth Warren? I expect any Democratic candidate will be vilified… we have seen previews of attacks on Kamala Harris. The Conservative Entertainment Complex is outstanding at this.
Regardless come election night will all be sitting around watching on how a handful of battleground states decide to vote. You could probably go ahead and color in 40 states blue or red right now.
I can’t see Gillibrand doing much of anything. Kamala Harris will be the RNC’s Hillary of 2020 unless AOC runs. I like what I’ve heard so far from Amy Klobuchar. Whether she’ll go anywhere is another story, though.
Presidential votes are diluted in heavily populated states because of electoral college. Not the same as Congressional gerrymandering, but you do end up with a government that is not reflective of what the majority of people voted for.
This is true, except it’s backwards. Because of the electoral college the President can be elected and not be reflective of who a majority of people voted for.
Take Trump for example, a majority of people voted against him because because of the EC he won.
.
.
.
.>>>>
