Trump will only be a single term president


#1

Jennifer Rubin has written an op-ed for the WashPost detailing five reasons she thinks Trump won’t make it to a second term. Her first four points are on target: The Mueller investigation, the failure of his play-to-the-base strategy, his scary foreign policy and the chaos that’s been a continual part of his administration. Her fifth point: the likelihood that Trump will be challenged by Republican contenders, really isn’t much of a point since it goes without saying he will be and I still don’t see him even being re-nominated unless the GOP has brains filled with concrete.

Impeachment, by the way, doesn’t enter into the issue here. That’s a completely different discussion.

So which ideas seem likely or most likely to y’ll?


#2

Deja vu October 2016.


#3

There are 2 other factors that I think will play into this:

  1. Who do the Democrats nominate in 2020? If they nominate another loser like Clinton, he MAY have a chance - however small it may be.
  2. Does the economy tank? If the economy is still fairly strong, he MAY be able to pull off another win, though that is certainly not a guarantee with all the other negatives. If the economy slips, even a little, stick a fork in him - he’s done.

#4

To get to your second point first, I really think the state of the economy won’t really matter given the noise of the other stuff. Unless Trump makes a hell of a suck-up deal with his rich buddies, it shouldn’t matter. If, on the other end that strategy works, we’re in deeper ■■■■ than we were during 43, which I already think we are anyway.

As for nominees, it’s a long way off and any speculation is really premature and somewhat useless. But I disagree with your contention about Clinton, though. She didn’t win because she was painted as everything she wasn’t. If America was as smart as some European countries, they would have elected a leader on the basis of their qualifications and experience not their reality TV image.


#5

Oh they will definitely renominate, unless Mueller presents evidence of a crime


#6

But now hes got a record to stand on. Before he could say whatever he wanted.


#7

Yep. I dont think he will get the midwestern turnout he did. Especially with all the tarrifs.


#8

We can dream, but I won’t believe it until I see it.


#9

He’s got the incumbent advantage.

I’d say it’s 60-40. 60% chance he’s re-elected barring Mueller uncovering something that is on the level of watergate or worse that’s an open and shut case. Like Trump on tape of ordering people to lie under oath.

But like another poster said if the economy decides to take a dump in the next two years he’s finished. If it’s strong during his re-election his chances go up.


#10

I don’t think the incumbent advantage will be of use to him. It didn’t help in the 2016 elections.


#11

The only popular politicians in Europe are on the far right. Merkel had to step down and Macron is rocking a 20% approval rating.


#12

Well Clinton was no Obama. Clinton couldn’t inspire the democratic base like Obama did in 2008 and (to a lesser extent) 2012. She’s despised by the right, reviled by the middle, tolerated by the moderate left, and hated by the far left.


#13

You’re certainly not talking about Hillary Clinton.


#14

I’d argue the biggest reason he might not win is the “playing only to the base” reason.

He’s done nothing to bring in new voters. Nothing. If anything, he’s done more to push potential voters away. You don’t win again in MI, WI, and PA doing that. His base isn’t big enough to win an election that features a dem candidate not named Clinton.


#15

Predict it.org has it at 28% chance of reelection.

That’s not good 2 years into his term.

Allan


#16

Remember, Republicans were also very confident that Obama was going to be a one-termer


#17

That wasn’t based on anything concrete. It was only based on their imagination.


#18

There is really nothing concrete here either. The article title itself even says “may”


#19

One can only hope.


#20

Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he’s reelected. Almost three decades without an incumbent president losing an election