Trump will only be a single term president

[madasheck]

@W_and_C

Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he’s reelected. Almost three decades without an incumbent president losing an election

Very true, but Obama’s 2012 victory was no shoe-in in the popular (he beat Romney by only 5 million in the popular vote). It was the electoral votes where he really beat him. And not all of the states that went for him in '16 are guaranteed in 2020.

[Candyman]

The irrationality of voters has been demonstrated countless times in countless countries in countless elections. So you never know.

It all depends on who the Democrats run. Trump is at a disadvantage in that he has done nothing to increase his base. He’s not a uniter by any stretch. He’s a Fox & Friends, Twitter Troll, InfoWars idiot who just managed to con enough other idiots to get the seat. It’ll be a harder sell the second time.

[W_and_C]

@madasheck

@W_and_C

Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he’s reelected. Almost three decades without an incumbent president losing an election

Very true, but Obama’s 2012 victory was no shoe-in in the popular (he beat Romney by only 5 million in the popular vote). It was the electoral votes where he really beat him. And not all of the states that went for him in '16 are guaranteed in 2020.

Well there are no guarantees in life period; just saying incumbents apparently have a huge advantage.

I’m actually not sure why that is considering that everybody on both sides always seems to be pissed off about everything and people generally have a negative perception of where things are trending and hate the government.

You’d think that nobody on the national scale would ever get re-elected , yet here we are.

[Janet_Miller]

Agreed.

It isn’t over until the last vote is counted.

Good seeing you here again btw.

[W_and_C]

@Janet_Miller

Agreed.

It isn’t over until the last vote is counted.

Good seeing you here again btw.

Hey Janet ! I don’t remember you. Did you have a different username on the old forum ?

[Janet_Miller]

Sure did.

Had log in trouble with the new forum (ID with a space), so logged in from Facebook.

I was Sponge Bob.

And I always liked your posts.

[W_and_C]

@Janet_Miller

Sure did.

Had log in trouble with the new forum (ID with a space), so logged in from Facebook.

I was Sponge Bob.

And I always liked your posts.

Awesome ! Great to see you Sponge !

[rone5847]

the earth is square also.

[BillBrown]

@madasheck

@TheRedComet

He’s got the incumbent advantage.

I’d say it’s 60-40. 60% chance he’s re-elected barring Mueller uncovering something that is on the level of watergate or worse that’s an open and shut case. Like Trump on tape of ordering people to lie under oath.

But like another poster said if the economy decides to take a dump in the next two years he’s finished. If it’s strong during his re-election his chances go up.

I don’t think the incumbent advantage will be of use to him. It didn’t help in the 2016 elections.

There was no incumbent running in 2916. That probably had something to do with it.

[madasheck]

@Janet_Miller

Sure did.

Had log in trouble with the new forum (ID with a space), so logged in from Facebook.

I was Sponge Bob.

And I always liked your posts.

Sponge Bob! Hey bud…

[madasheck]

@BillBrown

@madasheck

@TheRedComet

He’s got the incumbent advantage.

I’d say it’s 60-40. 60% chance he’s re-elected barring Mueller uncovering something that is on the level of watergate or worse that’s an open and shut case. Like Trump on tape of ordering people to lie under oath.

But like another poster said if the economy decides to take a dump in the next two years he’s finished. If it’s strong during his re-election his chances go up.

I don’t think the incumbent advantage will be of use to him. It didn’t help in the 2016 elections.

There was no incumbent running in 2916. That probably had something to do with it.

He tried to use his presidential influence in 2016 but it didn’t help, is what I was saying.

[Janet_Miller]

Hey, madasheck!

Hope you’re doing well!

[Forcefield]

@ImRightYoureWrong

I still don’t see him even being re-nominated unless the GOP has brains filled with concrete

Oh they will definitely renominate, unless Mueller presents evidence of a crime

You are both correct.

[Blackwolf]

@madasheck

Her fifth point: the likelihood that Trump will be challenged by Republican contenders, really isn’t much of a point since it goes without saying he will be and I still don’t see him even being re-nominated unless the GOP has brains filled with concrete.

I predict he’ll be re-nominated, and by a comfortable margin. The GOP is hostage to Trumpism for the foreseeable future.

[BillBrown]

@madasheck

@BillBrown

@madasheck

@TheRedComet

He’s got the incumbent advantage.

I’d say it’s 60-40. 60% chance he’s re-elected barring Mueller uncovering something that is on the level of watergate or worse that’s an open and shut case. Like Trump on tape of ordering people to lie under oath.

But like another poster said if the economy decides to take a dump in the next two years he’s finished. If it’s strong during his re-election his chances go up.

I don’t think the incumbent advantage will be of use to him. It didn’t help in the 2016 elections.

There was no incumbent running in 2916. That probably had something to do with it.

He tried to use his presidential influence in 2016 but it didn’t help, is what I was saying.

There is a definite disadvantage in a party winning the WH three terms in a row.
It’s only happened three times in the last 100 years.

[reflechissez]

@CassandraJoe

And last, there’s the Gerrymandering. Remember, Trump won a minority of popular votes in 2016, but he received a strong majority of Electoral College votes. Places like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Michigan will structure their electorate to win their States with a minority of votes. And the sparsely-populated States that make up Trump’s Core have more votes than the heavily-populated urban States.

How does congressional gerrymandering affect the presidential election?

[BillBrown]

@reflechissez

@CassandraJoe

And last, there’s the Gerrymandering. Remember, Trump won a minority of popular votes in 2016, but he received a strong majority of Electoral College votes. Places like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Michigan will structure their electorate to win their States with a minority of votes. And the sparsely-populated States that make up Trump’s Core have more votes than the heavily-populated urban States.

How does congressional gerrymandering affect the presidential election?

It doesn’t.

[BillBrown]

It only effects congressional elections.

[Blackwolf]

@CassandraJoe

*mainly because I want Trump to win again and finally convince even his Base that the Republican Party is swindling them.

If they haven’t been convinced by now, they never will be.

[madasheck]

Disagree. I think he’ll be an anchor around their neck. He may run but he won’t get the nomination.