@AlexMcAlpine this is from Australia’s ABC. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-data-reveals-how-covid-19-is-spreading-in-australia/12060704
Whilst our numbers are relatively low at the moment there is a disconcerting explosion of new cases.
AlexMcAlpine:
TODAY 4661, 86 dead
Couple hours later and there’s a new update.
USA: 5,204 confirmed cases, 92 dead.
Samm
March 17, 2020, 10:18pm
43
JayJay:
Real data geeks can go here. This site is really cool but needs more data.
https://nextstrain.org/
These guys are doing a great job building models that use the genome of the virus to determine where it might have come from.
It shows the issue of multiple introductions of the virus into countries and why containment measures alone (i.e. shutting the border) are not going to be effective.
Stopping, no; slowing, yes. The containment by isolation measures are meant to keep the spread of new cases to a manageable (for health providers) level. I’m sure you have seen the superimposed graph of containment vs non-containment.
5,204 confirmed cases, 92 confirmed deaths.
1.77% mortality rate.
JayJay
March 17, 2020, 10:55pm
45
Samm:
JayJay:
Real data geeks can go here. This site is really cool but needs more data.
https://nextstrain.org/
These guys are doing a great job building models that use the genome of the virus to determine where it might have come from.
It shows the issue of multiple introductions of the virus into countries and why containment measures alone (i.e. shutting the border) are not going to be effective.
Stopping, no; slowing, yes. The containment by isolation measures are meant to keep the spread of new cases to a manageable (for health providers) level. I’m sure you have seen the superimposed graph of containment vs non-containment.
The benefits of containment without mitigation do not offer the benefits people think it should.
Especially once community spread starts.
And as I said, the containment wall was incomplete.
After the ban many people still got in…from China and from Europe.
Samm
March 17, 2020, 11:00pm
46
JayJay:
Samm:
JayJay:
Real data geeks can go here. This site is really cool but needs more data.
https://nextstrain.org/
These guys are doing a great job building models that use the genome of the virus to determine where it might have come from.
It shows the issue of multiple introductions of the virus into countries and why containment measures alone (i.e. shutting the border) are not going to be effective.
Stopping, no; slowing, yes. The containment by isolation measures are meant to keep the spread of new cases to a manageable (for health providers) level. I’m sure you have seen the superimposed graph of containment vs non-containment.
The benefits of containment without mitigation do not offer the benefits people think it should.
Especially once community spread starts.
And as I said, the containment wall was incomplete.
After the ban many people still got in…from China and from Europe.
Yes, but it is foolish to think that containment by isolation is not a smart thing to do. Slowing the spread is the goal of containment, thus limiting the demand on medical resources. Eventually, the virus has no opportunity to spread. That is precisely how the Spanish Flu pandemic was ended.
7342 now in US. Up from 5204. 115 dead.
Australia 568.
China holding steady.
Four or five hours later, now 7,769 in the US and 118 dead.
3/19/2020
9,415 in the US, 150 dead
JayJay
March 19, 2020, 3:38pm
50
Samm:
JayJay:
Samm:
JayJay:
Real data geeks can go here. This site is really cool but needs more data.
https://nextstrain.org/
These guys are doing a great job building models that use the genome of the virus to determine where it might have come from.
It shows the issue of multiple introductions of the virus into countries and why containment measures alone (i.e. shutting the border) are not going to be effective.
Stopping, no; slowing, yes. The containment by isolation measures are meant to keep the spread of new cases to a manageable (for health providers) level. I’m sure you have seen the superimposed graph of containment vs non-containment.
The benefits of containment without mitigation do not offer the benefits people think it should.
Especially once community spread starts.
And as I said, the containment wall was incomplete.
After the ban many people still got in…from China and from Europe.
Yes, but it is foolish to think that containment by isolation is not a smart thing to do. Slowing the spread is the goal of containment, thus limiting the demand on medical resources. Eventually, the virus has no opportunity to spread. That is precisely how the Spanish Flu pandemic was ended.
I have never said otherwise.
When I first started this thread on March 6 the US was at 259.
13 days later we are at 9415.
That’s a bigger bump than Japan and Australia got…In fact they’re not even over 1,000.
AlexMcAlpine:
When I first started this thread on March 6 the US was at 259.
13 days later we are at 9415.
That’s a bigger bump than Japan and Australia got…In fact they’re not even over 1,000.
People are not listening to the warnings/guidance. For example, college age kids are still filling beaches, hotels, AirBnB’s and bars for spring break. Our numbers are going to grow exponentially because many Americans are being reckless and stuck on stupid.
1 Like
Jamerican:
For example, college age kids are still filling beaches, hotels, AirBnB’s and bars for spring break.
They will be following certain advice that for them it will just be the flu.
Then they go amongst their grandparents who get it and die or become critically ill.
Three hours since my last post.
We are now at 11,274 and 157 dead.
The vast majority of those dying in the US were in nursing homes or in poor health generaly. And 60 years or over.
A list of where they contracted it (no names given) is here:
3 hours since that post.
Now we’re at 13,768 and 200 dead.
Only a couple of hours since last post.
14,250 in the US, 205 dead.
So if all these 14,250 infected folks spent a week before they were diagnosed, infecting others, this could balloon up pretty quickly now that people are finally getting tested.
Well when the White House was telling everyone it was a hoax right up until at least the end of February, should we be surprised when several Americans continue to refuse to take it seriously? Have you seen the latest polls on trust in government information? Not reassuring, to say the least.
No really, you need to listen to us. We really mean it this time.
AlexMcAlpine:
Only a couple of hours since last post.
14,250 in the US, 205 dead.
So if all these 14,250 infected folks spent a week before they were diagnosed, infecting others, this could balloon up pretty quickly now that people are finally getting tested.
Within 8 hours the numbers jumped 30%… we will be at 50k cases by this time next week
I was thinking that as well.
Yeah and you thought people were acting stupid now. Just wait until ■■■■ really hits the fan.
