Today’s polls and discussion about polls

[NebraskaFootball]

@Apocalypto

20-30 million more voters than 2016.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1319358871731830785?s=21

I’m feeling pretty confident about my prediction from @WCD9973 prediction thread.

@NebraskaFootball

I’m going with 150,000,000.

Turnout is going to be massive. Already is massive. And will remain massive through the close of all polling.

[Apocalypto]

I was trying to remember who made the 150 mil prediction.

[Chris]

RCP now has Trump’s approval rating at 44.5%. RCP also includes Rasmussen in its polling average.

Biden is going to win the nationwide popular vote. My guess is that it will be Biden at about 52%, Trump at 46% and the third-party candidates at 2%.

[once-ler]

@DougBH

Rasmussen daily tracking shows Trump approval at 52% and disapproval at 48%. I don’t cite this to convince anyone that they should believe Ras. and not the other polls. I cite it just to indicate that this is toward the top of Trump’s historical rating with them, and a huge improvement over the past two weeks. Not to point out the absolute, but to point out the trend.
Trump obviously needs to hit this election day toward to top of his trend (though of course many have already voted)

Great post. There is nothing I can honestly point to, to discredit what you wrote, and you have admirably indicated that President Trump has not polled better at Rasmussen since before early voting started. I don’t know if it is an outlier, but I appreciate you reporting it to me.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[Apocalypto]

Maybe 70-80 million early votes before the election.

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1319633471820673024?s=21

[highroller]

I was thinking 100 million but it may not get there.

[Apocalypto]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1319639724089368576?s=21

[Apocalypto]

Pennsylvania early mail-in voting by party affiliation:

Democrats - 1,031,663
Republicans - 295,430
Independents - 125,002

This is now a quarter of the 2016 vote.

[DOLOOP]

@Apocalypto

Pennsylvania early mail-in voting by party affiliation:

Democrats - 1,031,663
Republicans - 295,430
Independents - 125,002

This is now a quarter of the 2016 vote.

Is that ballots returned or ballots requested?

[Apocalypto]

Ballots requested.

[Sknyluv]

@Apocalypto

Pennsylvania early mail-in voting by party affiliation:

Democrats - 1,031,663
Republicans - 295,430
Independents - 125,002

This is now a quarter of the 2016 vote.

That’s crazy.

[wonderingrover]

Over 2 million have already voted in GA.

https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/record_breaking_early_in-person_voting_continues_october_22_8_pm_update

[biggestal99]

A few polls from am and late yesterday

Good news for biden

Florida +2

North Carolina +1

Michigan +7
Michigan +9

Pennsylvania +7
Pennsylvania +5
PennsylVania +6

Wisconsin +6

Good news for trump

Florida +4

Michigan +4

Utah +12

Allan

[AmusedObserver]

@biggestal99

A few polls from am and late yesterday

Good news for biden

Florida +2

North Carolina +1

Michigan +7
Michigan +9

Pennsylvania +7
Pennsylvania +5
PennsylVania +6

Wisconsin +6

Good news for trump

Florida +4

Michigan +4

Utah +12

Allan

Check out that Trump +4 poll in Michigan. It seems very suspect - no screening by education, which was one of the big issues in the 2016 polling, and it also shows Biden and Trump equally supported by Blacks. That seems highly, highly questionable.

[biggestal99]

@AmusedObserver

Check out that Trump +4 poll in Michigan. It seems very suspect - no screening by education, which was one of the big issues in the 2016 polling, and it also shows Biden and Trump equally supported by Blacks. That seems highly, highly questionable

I saw that. Also had black support for trump equal to biden. Lol.

It’s an outlier for sure. I expect Biden to win Michigan handily.

Allan

[Safiel]

If I was a Republican candidate or party member in any capacity in this country, I would be ■■■■■■■■ bricks looking at these turnout numbers.

[WorldWatcher]

@Safiel

If I was a Republican candidate or party member in any capacity in this country, I would be ■■■■■■■■ bricks looking at these turnout numbers.

Someone said earlier, maybe it was Jay Jay. We will need to see if these are real turnout numbers (as in new voters) or if it’s just a shift of Same Day voters to Mail-in and Early Voters.
.
.
.
.WW, PSHS

[TommyLucchese]

@Safiel

If I was a Republican candidate or party member in any capacity in this country, I would be ■■■■■■■■ bricks looking at these turnout numbers.

What happens when you passively enable a super villain.

[highroller]

My wife is not an election day voter. (She says she can’t be bothered) She voted this time. Her sister is 19 and just voted for the first time. So there is two new ones.

[Zander]

@highroller

My wife is not an election day voter. (She says she can’t be bothered) She voted this time. Her sister is 19 and just voted for the first time. So there is two new ones.

That’s awesome. First time voting is a special experience.