Today’s polls and discussion about polls

Figure I might as well start a thread about polls. It’s election season
And there are plenty out there.

I will be posting only presidential and senatorial polls

So away we go…

In before FAKE!

I prefer an average of a lot of polls, FWIW.

I use 538 but if anyone has a poll that they like…post away

So anyway here goes.

Kansas—trump +7. ho hum

Texas…well one of these polls is wrong or maybe they are both outliers

Trump +6 :scream:

Biden +10 :scream:

Utah Trump + 19

Michigan Biden +11

No real surprises except the two Texas polls what the hell


How do you average Texas?

Biden +2?


Texas turning purple faster than anyone thought.

Here. It’s still incredible to be this close.

RCP is good as an aggregate for polling. But the fact they still include Rassmussen and Harris in their polling averages makes them less reliable than 538 in my opinion.

I would agree, but I don’t like the way 538 ‘adjusts’ the polls. I have read why they do this, but I prefer to take the good with the bad, which is the whole point of averaging.

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Very fair criticism. I agree.

Here is the latest about the Presidential battleground state polls from RCP.

Wisconsin – Biden up by 5.0
Arizona ----- Biden up by 3.7
Florida ------ Biden up by 4.0
Ohio --------- Biden up by 2.3
Pennsylvania – Biden up by 4.7
North Carolina - Biden up by 4.6


Generally I monitor trends rather than putting too much individual polls.


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Ha ha beat ya to it.

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Au contraire

Polls are real.

They actually talk with the real people they are polling.

You don’t like the results, that all.



The problem if you don’t weight for anything (education/party) the data is real mess and you have Ras skewing all of the data with their constant (daily!?) Trump hearting approval polls and such.

I do like to eyeball this twitter every day, they post every poll, real quick too. Including internals when made public.

Maybe, but I would rather have the average skewed slightly to the right so we don’t get complacent.

Biden is polling better right now than Clinton did at her peak (which was post-convention bounce in early August). Be interesting to see if convention bounces are even a thing this year.

Yes. Good news and the twittter link is interesting, thanks.

I already checked Rachael Maddow’s astrology chart for election day +1. She’s not gonna be happy. It’s gonna be a bad day for her.

From yesterday

Wisconsin Biden +6

PA Biden +6

No big surprises.