Today’s polls and discussion about polls

From yesterday and today

Biden good news

Georgia Biden +2
Georgia Biden +4

North Carolina Biden +10

Maine Biden +11

Arizona Biden +4

Michigan Biden +4

Trump good news

Arizona Trump +1

North Carolina Trump +1

Nebraska-1 Trump +2

Allan

I would say he is performing about the same at the same time juncture.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/

:man_shrugging:t3:

The number you are missing is his percentage. He is at or above 50% in tons of polls. Clinton hardly ever was, and never once averaged such.

I just gave you the comparison on a platter.

It plummeted from 8-9 percent Biden to less than 1 percent Trump or Biden since July 28.

I think it is remarkable how similar the trend is.

It’s okay. Not everyone is comfortable with stochastic thinking.

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Here is the latest about the competitive Senate races from RCP.

Arizona — Kelly up by 6.5
Iowa ------- Greenfield up by 0.3
Maine ----- Gideon up by 4.4
Montana - Daines up by 2
North Carolina - Cunningham up by 9.5

There wasn’t really anything about Colorado from RCP.

At no time has trump even been close to the lead in 2020.

Can’t say the same about 2016. Lots of peaks and valley 4 years ago.

It’s been solid support for biden.

Allan

Today’s polls

Biden good news

Wis +4
Pa +4
Michigan +5
Florida +6
Arizona +1
Mass +36
Maine +7

Trump good news

North Carolina +1

Allan

Not much today maybe later

Biden good news

Callie +28
Wisconsin +13

Trump good news

None.

Allan

Just a couple of more

Biden good news

North Carolina +1

Trump good news

Mississippi +10

Allan

That’s actually not good news for Trump. In 2016, he carried Mississippi by almost 18%.

One poll on Tuesday has Biden only +3 in Minnesota

Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3

Is MN turning purple ? (insert Vikings joke)

Good news for Trump - Trump is +1 in GA.

Of course, GA has been solidly red since the 1990’s, so there is that. I’ve actually seen a ton of Trump ads here - normally, presidential candidates don’t even fool with GA until October

Do you even see a lot of presidential ads in a normal election? I’m surprised you see them in October.

Not really - they are usually few and far between

Harris being seen as a positive addition to the Biden ticket.

Overall, voters feel more positive toward Harris than Vice President Mike Pence.

  • In general, Harris is viewed in a slightly positive light by voters: 37% favorable – 32% unfavorable. Pence’s standing, on the other hand, is negative (33% favorable – 47% unfavorable).

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-VP-2020

More positive news for Biden/Harris. So far the predictions of a Democratic backlash are not beng borne out.

A slim majority of voters, 53 percent, approve of Biden picking the California senator to join the Democratic ticket, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult flash poll conducted on Wednesday, the day after the selection was announced. That’s significantly greater than the 29 percent who disapprove of Harris as Democrats’ vice presidential candidate.

Moreover, the pick earns high marks from key constituencies: Democrats (84 percent) overwhelmingly approve of Harris’ selection, as do Black voters (79 percent). Majorities of voters under age 35 (56 percent), 35-44 (61 percent) and 65 and older (55 percent) approve of Biden’s choice; only among voters aged 45-64 does the pick not earn majority support.

Dude. You cant even be bothered to spell the bogus word Cali correctly? Cali is Baja. California is where I live. Sheesh.

Callie is a high school girl.

Sorry if I offended you.

I also call New Jersey, Just plain Jersey.

It’s biggestal99 speak.

Allan

1 Like

Trump hasn’t won a single GE poll since February.
Hasn’t won a Florida or Michigan poll since early March.
Won a single outlier PA poll in May

Clinton never once averaged 50% or more in National. Biden has. A LOT. The polls are way, way worse for Trump this year.