Today’s polls and discussion about polls

Not offended.You East Coast types can’t be held accountable for your linguistic shortcomings.

I do get offended when Californians use Cali and don’t get me started on Californians who use “Frisco.” They oughtta know better. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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RCP now has Biden up by 5 points. But I believe that Florida is going to be closer. And Biden is going to have to win Duval County and win Miami-Dade County by at least 25 points if he is going to win Florida.

Jeesh, who are these people that still waste time watching tv commercials? Don’t think I have seen one for over two years.

Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump among registered voters has significantly narrowed since June, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS,

Here he comes… :rofl:

Throw it in the mix

Only 8% at 538.

When Biden slips below 50% then that is a warning flag.

Allan

Today’s state poll

North Carolina even Stephen.

Allan

Back in June this CNN poll that now has Biden up by 4 had Biden up by 14 points and Trump wanted CNN to retract it and apologize.

And there he goes :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Count on it. In the bag.

Added yesterday

DATES POLLSTER SAMPLE RESULT NET RESULT
President: general election N.C. AUG 12-13, 2020
B/C

East Carolina University 1,255 RV Biden 47% 47% Trump EVEN
U.S. Senate N.C. AUG 12-13, 2020
B/C

East Carolina University 1,255 RV Cunningham 44% 40% Tillis Cunningham +5
Governor N.C. AUG 12-13, 2020
B/C

East Carolina University 1,255 RV Cooper 52% 38% Forest Cooper +13

Same poll, same sample, three different races, three different results.

Clearly there is significant vote splitting going on in North Carolina.

Cooper is cruising comfortably to victory.

Cunningham has a narrow but consistent lead over Tillis.

Trump and Biden are neck in neck.

Ironically, both Cunningham and Biden may benefit from reverse coattails from Cooper.

Right now, I believe that both Cunningham and Trump will win NC.

I believe Cooper and Cunningham will both win and Trump/Biden is too close to call.

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In Maine, Gideon is up 4.5 points over Collins according to RCP. Trump Republicans don’t like Collins, because she voted against repealing Obamacare and voted against Trump’s unconstitutional national emergency. Progressives don’t like her mainly because of her vote to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Progressives around the country have been donating a lot of money to Gideon. If I was in Maine, I would vote for Collins. But I live over 2,000 miles from Maine, and I believe that Collins is going to lose to Gideon.

Yesterday’s polls

Good news for biden

Wisconsin +6

Good news for trump

Texas +7
Georgia +3

Allan

Honestly, GA is a bad sign for Trump. +3 puts GA within the margin of error. Historically, Dems don’t even spend money in GA because it’s assumed a Republican will win. That has changed this year. Trump may very well still win it, but the fact that he’s having to spend money here is problematic

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It’s incredible to me that cooper is so popular and will coast to reelection.

Allan

Well. Things are changing in Georgia. As well as the Carolinas.

When sc went with the Democratic Party candidate in the first congressional district. It was a forebearer of sc turning purple.

Allan

That certainly seems to be the case. The last governor’s race was about as close as I’ve seen here. I know a lot of people wouldn’t vote for Kemp because they thought he’d be a Trump lackey. Turns out during the reopening process he proved to be even nuttier than Trump. And that’s quite a feat.

RCP now has Biden up 7.6 points over Trump nationally. I believe that Biden will have to be up by at least 2 or 3 points by RCP nationally at election time if he is going to win this election.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html