I hope 60 minutes shows Trump coming unhinged. The Villages is their primary demographic.
538 now has Biden with an 85% chance of winning Wisconsin and a 92% chance of winning Michigan.
Of all the states it should come as no surprise that there is a significant increase in those voting in the 18-29 age group in Florida.
Something to keep in mind.
On average, in elections since 1972, national polling averages shifted by an average of 1.8 points and a median of just 1.4 points in the final 15 days of the race.
Clearly good news for Biden given he is polling about 10 points higher than Trump at this point. The article also notes that less people are undecided this time around and more people have already voted. So the chances of those numbers changing are less likely.
Texas according to quinnipac
Biden 47. Trump 47
if biden somehow wins texas it will change the landscape of politics for the foreseable future
without texas the GOP cant win
is Biden wins texas theres a good chance the dems also take the texas house
Today’s early am polls
Good news for biden
Minnesota +6
Wisconsin +12
Texas +1
Pennsylvania +9
North Carolina +3
Michigan +8
Florida +7
Colorado +16
California +26
Good news for no one
Georgia even
Good news for trump
South Carolina +6
Ohio +2
Arizona +1
Michigan +1
Allan
RCP now has Biden with a 3.2 point lead in Arizona. 538 now has Biden with a 67% chance of winning Arizona and has Kelly with a 79% chance of winning his Senate race in this state.
Now that would be a game changer
538 now has Trump with a 65% chance of winning Texas.
This would be one hell of an upset.
https://twitter.com/morningconsult/status/1319239577874280450?s=21
Just imagine the money you could have made betting that the first state in the union to have two black senators at the same time would be South Carolina!
Trump trailing Hillary in polls (bottom line) compared to Trump trailing Biden (top line).
The Hillary polls had a bunch of ups and downs.
CNN poll:
Florida: Likely voters
Joe Biden 50%
Donald Trump 46%
Pennsylvania: Likely voters
Joe Biden 53%
Donald Trump 43%
Monmouth poll:
Iowa House races: Likely voters
IA-01
Finkenauer (D) 52%
Hinson ® 44%
IA-02
Hart (D) 49%
Miller-Meeks ® 43%
IA-03
Axne (D) 52%
Young ® 43%
IA-04
Feenstra ® 48%
Scholten (D) 42%
Quinnipiac poll:
National: Likely voters
Joe Biden 51%
Donald Trump 41%
“This is the third national survey among likely voters since September that shows Biden with a 10-point lead.”
Rasmussen daily tracking shows Trump approval at 52% and disapproval at 48%. I don’t cite this to convince anyone that they should believe Ras. and not the other polls. I cite it just to indicate that this is toward the top of Trump’s historical rating with them, and a huge improvement over the past two weeks. Not to point out the absolute, but to point out the trend.
Trump obviously needs to hit this election day toward to top of his trend (though of course many have already voted)
20-30 million more voters than 2016. 
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1319358871731830785?s=21
Could you please show us the math that shows this is a trend rather than an outlier? As has been discussed in the past, Rasmussen data is extremely volatile, with significant swings on a daily basis.
There was a poster on the old forum, a Brit who claimed to be a published mathematician, who once took the last two data points in a long series and claimed that it demonstrated a trend. Don’t be like him.
Quinnipiac has him at 41% approval
Morning Consult has him at 42% approval
YouGov has him at 45% approval
Rasmussen is an outlier.
