The Stock Market Seems to be Doing Really Well

[SixFoot]

@tnt

@SixFoot

Decades? Wow, that’s pretty gloomy alright. I might have to install a rain catch as a backup.

decades might be hyperbolic.

Decade singular seems about right. Not 10 years of depression mind you, but 10 years of recovery to pre-covid economic levels.

I hope I’m wrong.

I just think we’re glossing over the damage to the fundamentals of the economy right now.

Didn’t the great depression last for a decade?

[tnt]

@SixFoot

Didn’t the great depression last for a decade?

I honestly don’t know…I’ll look it up.

[tnt]

@SixFoot

Didn’t the great depression last for a decade?

from wiki:

In most countries of the world, recovery from the Great Depression began in 1933.[11] In the U.S., recovery began in early 1933,[11] but the U.S. did not return to 1929 GNP for over a decade and still had an unemployment rate of about 15% in 1940, albeit down from the high of 25% in 1933.

So the depression lasted a few years, but the recovery took decades?

[WuWei]

@tnt

@WuWei

But not protests.

Corn meal likes heater telephone.

I understand.

[SixFoot]

@tnt

@SixFoot

Didn’t the great depression last for a decade?

from wiki:

In most countries of the world, recovery from the Great Depression began in 1933.[11] In the U.S., recovery began in early 1933,[11] but the U.S. did not return to 1929 GNP for over a decade and still had an unemployment rate of about 15% in 1940, albeit down from the high of 25% in 1933.

So the depression lasted a few years, but the recovery took decades?

If this next one is the likes of which we have not seen, then decades it is.

Seeds - check.
Fresh clean water - check.
Livestock - check.
MuH gUnS - check.

I wonder if I’m missing anything. maybe more mason jars is in order.

[biggestal99]

@Jamerican

Please keep in mind the stock market being up doesn’t really have an impact on most Americans because most Americans don’t own stock. There is usually no impact especially if there isn’t any investments used in creating jobs.

So…who in here actually own stock or have a 401k or maybe a pension fund invested in the stock market?
I’m asking for a friend…

I have a long term (401k) invested heavily in stocks so the market going up has made it a happy camper. I was despairing for a while.

Allan

[SixFoot]

I put about 10k into the TSP back in 2008. Haven’t checked on it in years.

[WuWei]

@highroller

Useless eaters stealing money from the producers.

Argumentum ad misericordiam

[zantax]

@tnt

@SixFoot

Didn’t the great depression last for a decade?

from wiki:

In most countries of the world, recovery from the Great Depression began in 1933.[11] In the U.S., recovery began in early 1933,[11] but the U.S. did not return to 1929 GNP for over a decade and still had an unemployment rate of about 15% in 1940, albeit down from the high of 25% in 1933.

So the depression lasted a few years, but the recovery took decades?

Yes, thanks to FDR thinking he could manage the economy.

[gooddad409]

@SixFoot

Was he? Huh, no wonder the libs don’t like this recovery.

It clearly pisses them off. They want violence and no recovery until nov 4th at the earliest.

Nice folks.

[mwevans1234]

@SixFoot

I put about 10k into the TSP back in 2008. Haven’t checked on it in years.

Which fund(s)?

Also, this may be a good time to point out the rule of 72, which I’m always happy to share.

72/average growth rate = number of years it takes money to double. So if I put $1k in a fund with 10% average growth, I’ll have $2k in 7 years (72/10=7.2)

Assuming you are in the S&P TSP fund (which hopefully you are, young fellow), your average annual increase is between 8.5 and 12.5 percent, depending on when in that year you made your investment. (2008 was a very volatile year)

So that 10k, if you invested at the absolute bottom of the market, is a bit over 40k, (72/12 means you’re doubling every 6 years), and if you invested at the top, you’re right around 25k (You doubled every 9ish years 72/8ish)

Rule of 72 is most useful when thinking about the future, not estimating past returns, but it’s a great trick for some quick mental math on car rides while thinking about how to allocate.

[Hexenbiest]

I usually don’t see threads about the stock market unless it is horrible day or crash. Refreshing to see one when everyones 401k’s are gone back up, unless of course they were heavily invested in oil and travel stocks.

[mwevans1234]

@Hexenbiest

unless of course they were heavily invested in oil and travel stocks.

And such people shouldn’t have money. (Overexposure in a 401k is flat out gambling)

[SixFoot]

Good question. I was a young Private back then and liked the idea of an average 10% compound interest. I was told I could potentially have a couple hundred thousand waiting for me in my early 60’s. Putting half of my enlistment bonus into that seemed like a good idea. The S&P part sounds familiar now that you brought it up.

IIRC, I chose an automatic option where the portfolio changes over time.

[vaard]

700 billion in quantitative easing this year has helped the stock market…

I am sure republicans will be gnashing their teeth like they did when obama was president…

Or once again expose their hypocrisy…

I wonder which it will be…

[mwevans1234]

@SixFoot

Good question. I was a young Private back then and liked the idea of an average 10% compound interest. I was told I could potentially have a couple hundred thousand waiting for me in my early 60’s. Putting half of my enlistment bonus into that seemed like a good idea. The S&P part sounds familiar now that you brought it up.

IIRC, I chose an automatic option where the portfolio changes over time.

Great advice you got and good job listening to it and saving early instead of getting the souped up F150!

A 10% return on $10k invested at age 22 is $450k at 62 (or ~$200k in 2020 dollars, assuming 3% inflation starting now)

Now consider if you had that $10k deposited the day you were born. That’s $5 million nominally, $800k in 1986 dollars assuming 3% inflation.

The “birth gift“ would mostly fix the retirement crisis in this country and would pay for itself many times over with a reduction in the 401k tax benefit.

[SixFoot]

Well damn, it looks like my wife and I will be living in a giant RV when we’re not living on our yacht. We plan to sell the property when the kids are out of the house and go ocean traveling.

Now if only there were some way the Army would need to recall me so I could add more into it.

[mwevans1234]

@SixFoot

Well damn, it looks like my wife and I will be living in a giant RV when we’re not living on our yacht. We plan to sell the property when the kids are out of the house and go ocean traveling.

Now if only there were some way the Army would need to recall me so I could add more into it.

Hells yeah!

From my own “when the kids are gone” planning sheet…I’ve got “Costa Rica House“ on there…cell G2

[SixFoot]

I saw impressive numbers before the image disappeared. Very nicely done.

[tnt]

@SixFoot

If this next one is the likes of which we have not seen, then decades it is.

Seeds - check.
Fresh clean water - check.
Livestock - check.
MuH gUnS - check.

I wonder if I’m missing anything. maybe more mason jars is in order.

Trying to figure out how to refrigerator a decades worth of IPAs…