The Great Hoax Is Causing Dain Bramage 🤣

[zantax]

But even with Moore’s law, our current chips aren’t the first or only paradigm, it’s like the fifth. Likely to be replaced with quantum computing and keep on going.

Exponential Growth of Information Technology — Greg School

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Orygun

You have more hope than I. But I hope you are right.

Information-related fields advance exponentially, we are hitting the steep part of that curve, I am more worried about super AI than climate change.

Every part of an exponential curve is the steep part. It’s all relative.

Looks like one part is steeper to me.

Zoom in. Steep is relative.

But your point isn’t.

2, 4, 8, 16, 32…

Where isn’t it “steep”?

The exponential can be called steep because steep is relative. But your point is not relative. I thought that was clear.

My point is the very definition of relative. Every “present day” will seem to be the steep part of the curve.

If the present day is year 5, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 20, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 100, we are in the steep part of the curve. But at each of the latter two “present days”, the previous “present days” of 5, and 5 and 20 respectively will look rather flat.

That’s the nature of the exponential growth curve.

But the reality is technology will not grow indefinitely at an exponential rate.

Only in your mind. For everyone else, not so much.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

Says me.

Precisely my point.

[Borgia_dude]

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Orygun

You have more hope than I. But I hope you are right.

Information-related fields advance exponentially, we are hitting the steep part of that curve, I am more worried about super AI than climate change.

Every part of an exponential curve is the steep part. It’s all relative.

Looks like one part is steeper to me.

Zoom in. Steep is relative.

But your point isn’t.

2, 4, 8, 16, 32…

Where isn’t it “steep”?

The exponential can be called steep because steep is relative. But your point is not relative. I thought that was clear.

My point is the very definition of relative. Every “present day” will seem to be the steep part of the curve.

If the present day is year 5, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 20, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 100, we are in the steep part of the curve. But at each of the latter two “present days”, the previous “present days” of 5, and 5 and 20 respectively will look rather flat.

That’s the nature of the exponential growth curve.

But the reality is technology will not grow indefinitely at an exponential rate.

Only in your mind. For everyone else, not so much.

2,4,8,16,32 where is the steep part of the curve?

2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024,2056 where is the steep part of the curve?

It’s quite simple. Surely a man of math like you can see the steep part is always the tail, or present day, no matter when that present day was. 50 years from now they will be saying 2021 was still in the flat. (Assuming a continuation of exponential growth)

[zantax]

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Orygun

You have more hope than I. But I hope you are right.

Information-related fields advance exponentially, we are hitting the steep part of that curve, I am more worried about super AI than climate change.

Every part of an exponential curve is the steep part. It’s all relative.

Looks like one part is steeper to me.

Zoom in. Steep is relative.

But your point isn’t.

2, 4, 8, 16, 32…

Where isn’t it “steep”?

The exponential can be called steep because steep is relative. But your point is not relative. I thought that was clear.

My point is the very definition of relative. Every “present day” will seem to be the steep part of the curve.

If the present day is year 5, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 20, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 100, we are in the steep part of the curve. But at each of the latter two “present days”, the previous “present days” of 5, and 5 and 20 respectively will look rather flat.

That’s the nature of the exponential growth curve.

But the reality is technology will not grow indefinitely at an exponential rate.

Only in your mind. For everyone else, not so much.

Only like over a hundred years of evidence for it.

[Borgia_dude]

@zantax

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Orygun

You have more hope than I. But I hope you are right.

Information-related fields advance exponentially, we are hitting the steep part of that curve, I am more worried about super AI than climate change.

Every part of an exponential curve is the steep part. It’s all relative.

Looks like one part is steeper to me.

Zoom in. Steep is relative.

But your point isn’t.

2, 4, 8, 16, 32…

Where isn’t it “steep”?

The exponential can be called steep because steep is relative. But your point is not relative. I thought that was clear.

My point is the very definition of relative. Every “present day” will seem to be the steep part of the curve.

If the present day is year 5, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 20, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 100, we are in the steep part of the curve. But at each of the latter two “present days”, the previous “present days” of 5, and 5 and 20 respectively will look rather flat.

That’s the nature of the exponential growth curve.

But the reality is technology will not grow indefinitely at an exponential rate.

Only in your mind. For everyone else, not so much.

Only like over a hundred years of evidence for it.

You really think technology will grow exponentially indefinitely?

[zantax]

I think information related fields will advance exponentially until they hit some sort of maximum. Such that we have universal knowledge. And we have unlimited power. Long way to go but we are ramping up quickly. Provided we don’t kill our selves off first.

[Samm]

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@Samm

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Borgia_dude

@zantax

@Orygun

You have more hope than I. But I hope you are right.

Information-related fields advance exponentially, we are hitting the steep part of that curve, I am more worried about super AI than climate change.

Every part of an exponential curve is the steep part. It’s all relative.

Looks like one part is steeper to me.

Zoom in. Steep is relative.

But your point isn’t.

2, 4, 8, 16, 32…

Where isn’t it “steep”?

The exponential can be called steep because steep is relative. But your point is not relative. I thought that was clear.

My point is the very definition of relative. Every “present day” will seem to be the steep part of the curve.

If the present day is year 5, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 20, we are in the steep part of the curve. If present day is year 100, we are in the steep part of the curve. But at each of the latter two “present days”, the previous “present days” of 5, and 5 and 20 respectively will look rather flat.

That’s the nature of the exponential growth curve.

But the reality is technology will not grow indefinitely at an exponential rate.

Only in your mind. For everyone else, not so much.

2,4,8,16,32 where is the steep part of the curve?

2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024,2056 where is the steep part of the curve?

It’s quite simple. Surely a man of math like you can see the steep part is always the tail, or present day, no matter when that present day was. 50 years from now they will be saying 2021 was still in the flat. (Assuming a continuation of exponential growth)

^^^ Still missing the point. I’m not talking about the curve.

[Piper]

@Dem

The Arctic is not doing so good. The summer ice has shrunk by close to 50% in the last 40 years, warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet… It’s disappearing faster than previously thought.

If true, that doesn’t mean that it will continue. Nor does it mean that the activities of humans is responsible.

[Samm]

Nor does it mean that it’s bad. Throughout history, warmer has always been better than colder.

[Dem]

There is no sign of it slowing down. It’s getting worse and worse every year.

[Dem]

@Samm

Nor does it mean that it’s bad. Throughout history, warmer has always been better than colder.

There hasn’t been enough time for ecosystems to adapt. We are literally looking at the destruction of entire ecosystems, and massive extinctions within the next hundred years if the trend continues.

Also, much of the planet was underwater during those warmer millinea.

[SixFoot]

Our annual late autumn global warming argument. Today was probably the hottest day on record again. lol

You know who buys into global warming the most? People who hate it when their skin gets moist.

[SixFoot]

@Samm

Nor does it mean that it’s bad. Throughout history, warmer has always been better than colder.

I for one hope the glaciers melt completely. We could have so much more room, so much more food, so many more resources. Burn that wood!

[gooddad409]

@Orygun

@zantax

Yes but that was a trivial problem compared to climate.

Yes and the depressing intractability of it is leading a lot of folks to experience- grief, sadness, anger, etc- especially our kids and grandkids who see the future.

Well that’s a total waste of time worrying about things that aren’t going to happen.

None of my kids or grandkids are losing any sleep over climate change.

[Dem]

More room? There would be massive migrations further inland all over the world. Good chunks of China and the US would be underwater.

[Orygun]

@gooddad409

worrying about things that aren’t going to happen.

that are already happening.

[Guilds]

@zantax

We have a plethora of both more pressing and easier to solve problems though.

That effect us…that is true…our kid’s grandkids…they are screwed.

[SixFoot]

@Dem

More room? There would be massive migrations further inland all over the world. Good chunks of China and the US would be underwater.

It’s not going to happen anytime soon in the next 5,000 years. We still have time. There’s no need for you to panic or me to pay extra money for it.

[Dem]

Human short sightedness is going to be our undoing.