Had the Lions kicked and made that FG making it 27-10, I believe they win that game. All that misfortune following the dumb decision to go for it came after that dumb decision. When you give a team hope and momentum, you change the entire complexion of the game.
Coach Campbell had one job. Status quo. Let the 49ers know that halfway through the 3rd they gained no ground. He singlehandedly changed all of that.
Playoff games aren’t the place to be ■■■■■■■ with odds. All the teams bring their A game in the playoffs and know how to exploit weaknesses. In sports the team with the most points always wins.
They over performed getting into the playoffs in the first place. ■■■■ the Cinderella story they were painting with Detroit. Stafford would have gotten them a ring, anyways.
The analytics actually slightly favored going for it, the big question mark being Badgely’s ability to kick non-gimme FGs of 44 and 48 yards.
BUT, as others have pointed out…the analytics are based on stats that are volumetric, so they boil down to odds against the “typical team”.
But you get to the CCG and you are not facing a typical team…you’re facing a top tier team that’s fired up to stop you.
Also the analytics treat all games as equal and all moments in a game as equal. They aren’t.
Playoffs aren’t the same as regular season games because they are win and go home. Failures late in games are worse than failure early because you fail late, you have less time to make up for it.
But even worse than all that was his handling of the goal line situation end of game.
You can never ever ever EVER call timeout late in a game when you are trailing and on offense. So the run on third down was madness.
Second…the right thing to do was kick a FG after Goff’s first and goal pass failed. I didn’t mind taking one shot there, but when it failed, cut the gap to 7 points with a chip shot FG and now you have maximum time and three timeouts in your pocket so you can kick away and (hopefully) make a stop.
Campbell failed in so many levels.
His aggression is a smart play…over the long haul.
In a win or go home game, when you have your boot on the neck of the enemy? It’s stupidity.