Lets put this into prespective

[WildRose]

Yes, this would be the perfect time to flee the thread, although with your record on this subject I can see why you keep flinging turds at the fan.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

We should seriously consider suspending air travel to/from China for all non citizens and institute a quarantine protocol for returning citizens. All arriving ships should be stopped before reaching US ports by the CG and/or Navy to have everyone on board examined as well. Don’t allow Chinese citizens to disembark at all and again, where necessary institute quarantine policies for returning Americans.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

At this point in time, based on the available data, this is much more media hysteria than a true emergency. Unless China is completely fabricating the numbers, this particular strain of coronavirus does not appear to be significantly more virulent than typical strain. It does not approach the severity of SARS or MERS and as of now has a transmission rate (R0 to keep it simple) that is somewhat high, but still much lower than SARS. This could change. It could hit a huge population center, mutat…

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

Strong precautions are not a metric of disease severity. Disease mortality and rate of spread are. I’ll base my views on these facts rather than how tough the travel restrictions are.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

What facts are you referring to? Here are some real facts. Mortality rates - Wuhan coronavirus mortality rate: 4% SARS coronavirus mortality rate: 10% MERS coronavirus mortality rate: 30% Transmissibility (R0, higher number is more transmissible) - Wuhan coronavirus R0: 1.4-2.5 SARS coronavirus R0: 2-5 MERS coronavirus R0: 0.5-1 More transmissible than MERS, less transmissible than SARS. Much less deadly than either.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

15 posts on your part. A link to a Yahoo article and zero facts to back your paranoia. Plenty is known. The entire virus genome has been sequenced. Mortality and reproduction rates have been calculated and are continuing to be updated. I know science and statistics aren’t going to change your mind. You can continue to ignore them.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

There’s enough data to calculate mortality rate and R0 to the 95% confidence interval. Like I said, unless it mutates or China is lying, this is 99% hysteria.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

Like I said, I didn’t expect facts to change your mind. Luckily, disease severity has zero to do with the degree of message board poster hysteria. You can be as unfoundedly afraid as you want. The virus won’t be any different.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

I gave facts. Literal numbers to back what I said. You have unfounded fear and hysteria. That fear and hysteria is much more exciting than the facts and statistics, I’ll give you that.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

Projecting? Your beliefs on the severity of this virus are based on travel restrictions and rejection of epidemiology. My beliefs are based on science and statistics. Who’s projecting again?

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

More travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines for people returning from China are already being put in place. As of this morning we’re up to 11 confirmed cases in the US. I’d say that the CDC, NIH and all of the major airlines are definitely concerned at this point and are beginning to implement sensible policies to keep it from becoming epidemic. Many of the world’s airlines and gov’ts are instituting what seem like sensible policies to that end as well.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

Mortality rate (more accurately case fatality rate, but it’s quicker to type mortality rate) could only be lower if prevalence is actually higher than reported. Mortality rate is deaths due to disease divided by disease prevalence. When the Wuhan coronavirus was first discovered it was in a relatively isolated population. Deaths and prevalence were simpler to calculate. As the virus has spread, deaths remained easy to calculate, but prevalence became much more difficult. That’s why it appears …

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

The Wuhan CV is just getting started and it’s only been known for about a month. We don’t need hysterics but we certainly need common sense and to give it the appropriate level of concern along with taking appropriate precautions to limit it’s spread.

SARS-like virus spreading rapidly in China; cities quarantined; cases in US

More travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines for people returning from China are already being put in place. As of this morning we’re up to 11 confirmed cases in the US. I’d say that the CDC, NIH and all of the major airlines are definitely concerned at this point and are beginning to implement sensible policies to keep it from becoming epidemic. Many of the world’s airlines and gov’ts are instituting what seem like sensible policies to that end as well.

For you of course.