You’ve been wrong on this subject since your first posts, you remain so.
The industrialized world is gearing back up right now, hide and watch.
Ok. I just use them as the majors, EIA, and the marketing firms that make it their business to collect and analyze data and make predictions all seem to think 30’s, 40’s next year. I understand you are comfortable in your knowledge and will choose to ignore the experts above. You may end up right, I’m just advising what the experts are saying thinking you might appreciate that info.
Again, you may be right. We’ll see. Keep in mind we also are about to have record inventory.
The last part of your post is the key.
Oil demand has cratered 4x as much as the projected demand cuts from the agreement.
Even if somehow we do go back to a full normal economy by year end, we will be awash in oil without need for production ramp up.
Yeah, I’m not sure Wildrose accounted for that. Pipelines are insisting that you have buyers before they will put it in the line. Oil is being routed to Oklahoma as Texas tanks are full.
We are already at record inventory levels. That doesn’t take long to correct when China and The US start gearing back up with Europe soon to follow.
I just hope we can max out the strategic oil reserves before the prices start back up.
Irrelevant, prices already began to recover with the production cuts and as soon as demand starts picking back up prices will start moving upward as well just as they always do.
China is already going back to work, in the next week more than 50 million Europeans will be getting read to go back to work as well. Here in the US within 2 weeks many states will begin lifting restrictions and going back to work as well.
Warmer temps are already starting to move northward across the US which traditionally signals the end of the cold/flu seasons and this virus will almost certainly wane with them as well.
The Dow has now recovered about 6,000 of the 10,000pt drop since it’s high in January and the recovery package has prevented millions from losing jobs permanently or even losing their businesses altogether. We are set for a very strong recovery and by Sept/October the biggest worry is probably going to be inflation.
The next sixty days will see a steady butt slow increase in economic activity in the US and after than things will take off rapidly.
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Actually I’m going to agree with Jay here. I think airline industry will be last business to make full comeback.
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I’m sure they will be but they’ll be back to near full schedules by September/October.
No doubt if there remain major "hot spots’ there will be remaining or new travel restrictions focusing on them but the rest of the world just isn’t going to stay on “pause” for more than a few months. To do so is economic suicide and a collapsed economy will be far deadlier than this virus ever could have been.
When Disney reopens so too will air travel.
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Recovering 6,000 points of a 10,000 point drop is actually poor performance given $4 trillion thrown at it to prop it up.
And again, China is nowhere close to full production nor will they get there any time soon.
This wasn’t a momentary blip with a V-shaped recovery in the offing.
There will be no such thing as full recovery for some time. We aren’t all going to be back to normal by September…there’s no proof the virus will dissipate as the weather gets warmer.
These are all hopes, not certainties.
And no…oil prices have not recovered since the production cuts were made.
Literally nothing of what you said in this post is true.
Horse hockey. Show us a better recovery under similar circumstances in US History.
Bookmark it and let’s have this discussion again on the first of June, August, and October.
Bring plenty of gravy.
There have been recent stories suggesting that the virus doesn’t do well in the heat and humidity. I agree it isn’t conclusive but…
I know that, but if there are still a large number of cases around in the summer, that might not help much.
If we do have it tapped down then yes I agree the spread might go more slowly.
But nothing is guaranteed. Definitive statements should not be made about things that aren’t definitive.
“Almost certainly” is not “definitive”. “Certainly” would be “definitive”.
You’e been dead wrong on this subject since your first post though so I understand the frustration. 
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I know this was directed at JayJay but I went back to the OP and was perplexed. It outlined predictions on the economy after we came out of lockdown. How can you say he has been “dead wrong” when we haven’t even come out of lockdown yet?
Perhaps I am missing something.
Indeed you are. That would however be the norm.
Ok. What part of the OP is “dead wrong”?
I said nothing about the OP. This conversation has been running far longer than this thread.
It’s already hot and humid in LA and FL and elsewhere in the South.
Just going by tot case/1M pop I’m not seeing much correlation with temperature.
I’m hoping it turns out to be true, though.
LA hasn’t begun yet to warm up to their summer norms and their outbreak was the result of all the travel surrounding Mardi Gras.
They are also past their crisis point and on the down slope and preparing to start relaxing restrictions and getting people back to work.
