I know. There’s money to be made speculating blindly.
Black Swan events are called Black Swan events for a reason…they rarely happen.
That they exist does not make prediction and modeling “practically useless”.
And yet they always happen. Every time the price of oil falls, something happens and quickly.
I’ll trust the people with the money over your opinion on this matter.
As JayJay said, some events are unpredictable but it is the time between the events that we make predictions and base business decisions on this predictions.
And then what happens to the “time between the events”?
? That’s where our forecasts rule. We can’t anticipate things like COVID-19 or some war in Iran but much of the other things we do. We create P10, Base, and P90 scenarios and plans to address them.
Ok, if you say so.
That’s how businesses operate. If you don’t forecast then you are just reactive. Not a good place to be.
That’s the theory.
You run your business your way. We’ll run it our way.
It’s not blind speculation.
Of course it is.
Do you think you know more about this topic than I do?
I know more about every topic than you do.
Well, that’s the funniest thing I’ve read this week.
You may know a lot of things, but my expertise is most certainly not one of them.
So you probably know about leading and lagging indices.
Everything
I don’t really care about “the majors” or what you are/aren’t aware of.
There have been two driving factors of this crash. The first was the outbreak and corresponding drop in demand and the second was the SA/RU pissing contest.
We’re at or near the top of the curve here in the US and Europe won’t be far behind us chasing the down slope and OPEC has agreed to historic production cuts.
China and the US along with a few other major industrialized countries are putting their plans to restart the economies as we speak.
What does that add up to? A return to prices similar to those we were seeing in late Feb/Early March before the crash.
It took a Month for the uncertainty to pass as to the severity of the outbreak following the crash and it’s not going to take more than 4-5 months of recovery and restart to get prices back to where they were just prior.
No they won’t.
There is no scenario, as long as there is no vaccine or effective treatment for COVID (there will be no vaccine ready for large scale distribution by fall so please do not repeat that ridiculous assertion again), that will allow the economy to recover fully to pre-COVID levels.
Travel restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable future…jet fuel alone accounted for nearly 10% of oil demand.
General travel…40-45% of demand…will also likely be depressed for the foreseeable future as jobs that have shifted to work from home will also remain that way for some time to come.
Finally, even with the 9.7 mbpd production cuts agreed to by OPEC and Russia, the world will still be massively oversupplied with oil. Considering most estimates of current demand reduction are on the order of 35 mbpd.
So the likelihood is prices in the $20-$30 range, at best, for the remainder of 2020…which is going to leave a long-term structural mark in oil production.
