Future Scenarios in Russia/Ukraine

radioactive fallout doesn’t stop at borders

He also came out against foie gras, oysters and gender freedoms.

He is off the rails.

Yes NATO has explicitly said that accidental or not, an incursion into NATO territory would merit a full response from NATO. But again what does that mean? Wiping out all Russia’s forces in Ukraine? Bombing Russia itself? (which seemingly is being held hostage by a madman). Sending bunker buster bombs into the Urals?

It just seems really hard to imagine what a NATO non-nuclear response to Russia would be.

They would probably launch a surgical strike using Tomahawks on Russian material assets in Ukraine. But they would intentionally limit the damage. They wouldn’t deliberately target infantry. But a tank and a few transport trucks with their corresponding crews would probably be killed.

The all out response part is just a threat. It would be measured. The measurement would be determined by the severity of the Russian attack.

Which is exactly why I believe he won’t open his football over this incident barring NATO doing something really stupid, like openly joining the war and attacking Russian forces without provocation.

Or even just establishing a no fly zone, since we would be obligated to shoot down Russian aircraft. Which is why the people clamoring for a no-fly zone are insane and need to shut the ■■■■ up.

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Honestly… it seems like a little long of a drive for Russia to make.

He’s against western culture. So what?

Plus they would need to pass through NATO territory. Which would bring the hammer down.

There’s got to be a Russian general who can put a stop Putin’s madness.

Sounds like he’s tempting NATO to become more involved.

Which would give him justification to try the patented Russian “escalate to deescalate” strategy on NATO.

I’m just hoping NATO isn’t stupid enough to fall for his desperate ploys.

Exactly. I’m looking at this through the prism of what can China do to Taiwan. The answer seems to be, whatever it wants.

China put their finger up to see which way the wind is blowing.

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And their state TV has been talking about Russian war crimes.

Putin must be so upset

They might call off their dog, be the hero the US can’t be, and get the Saudi’s trading in yuan in one fail swoop.

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Option #2: it’s only been 3 weeks, and I am confident Putin is entirely willing to grind it out.

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I think that also.

But can he actually grind it out?

They are about to run out of cruise missiles.

They are running out of stuff.

They are asking China to back them… but will China do so? Biden says that there will be ramifications if they do.

Will China blow off it’s largest trading partner for some cheap Russian gas from an unstable kleptocrat?

Maybe they will…maybe they won’t.

If it crashes the dollar, you betcha.

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Well, cross your fingers, cuz if/when this happens, it might get dark. Like Chechnya dark.

Russia’s only real tactic is brutality.

Sure, but if he’s out of conventional weapons, but still has people to kill, might he reach for something awful?

God forbid.