Right now Russia is bogged down in a stalemate with very little forward movement of its forces so Putin has resorted to indiscriminate civilian bombing which is very unlikely to tip the scales towards Russia “winning”. The Western powers are continuing to resupply Ukrainian forces with arms to fight a war for a long time if needed. At the same time, economic sanctions continue to wear down Russia’s ability to promulgate a long war.
So we are left with a few scenarios for how this will play out.
1- Putin will understand he won’t “win” the war and will try to wrest some consolation such as the Donbas and keeping Crimea- in exchange for Ukraine having security agreements with the West to make sure Russia does not attack them again.
2- Putin will continue to attack Ukraine primarily by shelling and missiles for many months or more than a year. Eventually economic sanctions or his own people will force him to lose power.
3- Putin will feel so cornered that eventually he will resort to ratcheting up the pressure through a couple different ways- via bombing NATO held land where he will claim “Ukraine forces are hiding”, or by using chemical weapons or a tactical nuclear weapon on a Ukrainian city. Both would lead to an extraordinary choice on the part of NATO of how to respond.
Sadly- my guess is that Putin may resort to the third option as the first means losing face and the 2nd means his likely death.
Yup - it would. Just not sure how NATO would actually respond. And I’m not sure how Putin’s own military would respond to that escalation. Already there are strong rumblings of discontent throughout his forces.
Yeah they are completely stuck. Ukraine doesn’t have the power to remove them and win. Russia can’t win. Its a stalemate- but Russia is the one that will eventually lose due to the economic stranglehold.
Putin has to make a choice soon. Dissension in the military is growing fast. The economic stranglehold is causing the Russian people to hate Putin en masse. He is having to do crackdowns on citizens, fire “treasonous” generals, replace his personal staff for fear of poisoning.
My guess is the choice will be between 1 and 3. And its gonna happen within weeks, not months.
I was watching a retired military General on the tube when the 7,000 dead number came out. And he said that no amount of propaganda can hide 7K bodies. He said that it won’t be long before families realize that their son’s or daughter’s will not be coming home. And the whole family, friends and neighbors will know about it. And that is when the ■■■■ will hit the fan.
Military leaders are not dumb people. It might be getting close to the point that even the Putin loyal Generals might decide that this whole thing is not worth it. IMHO a military coup might be on the horizon.