Future Scenarios in Russia/Ukraine

Right now Russia is bogged down in a stalemate with very little forward movement of its forces so Putin has resorted to indiscriminate civilian bombing which is very unlikely to tip the scales towards Russia “winning”. The Western powers are continuing to resupply Ukrainian forces with arms to fight a war for a long time if needed. At the same time, economic sanctions continue to wear down Russia’s ability to promulgate a long war.

So we are left with a few scenarios for how this will play out.

1- Putin will understand he won’t “win” the war and will try to wrest some consolation such as the Donbas and keeping Crimea- in exchange for Ukraine having security agreements with the West to make sure Russia does not attack them again.

2- Putin will continue to attack Ukraine primarily by shelling and missiles for many months or more than a year. Eventually economic sanctions or his own people will force him to lose power.

3- Putin will feel so cornered that eventually he will resort to ratcheting up the pressure through a couple different ways- via bombing NATO held land where he will claim “Ukraine forces are hiding”, or by using chemical weapons or a tactical nuclear weapon on a Ukrainian city. Both would lead to an extraordinary choice on the part of NATO of how to respond.

Sadly- my guess is that Putin may resort to the third option as the first means losing face and the 2nd means his likely death.


i think the 3rd option would result in his death in a matter of days.

Yup - it would. Just not sure how NATO would actually respond. And I’m not sure how Putin’s own military would respond to that escalation. Already there are strong rumblings of discontent throughout his forces.

They have lost a 4th general.

Their lines of communication is so bad that they are using unencrypted lines and are able to be tracked via GPS.

They were repelled from getting closer to taking Odessa by a much smaller force of mostly volunteers.

The Russians are a mess.

I can see them going thermobaric before I see them going chemical or nuclear.

Heck. They are pulling equipment and soldiers from South Ossetia to send to Ukraine.

It is going real bad for them.

I think that everyone is surprised at how this is going.

Haven’t they already gone thermobaric?

And for some reason that isn’t the red line that the West would need to see.

Thermobaric into city centers.

I can see them doing that before chemical or nuclear attacks.

Yeah they are completely stuck. Ukraine doesn’t have the power to remove them and win. Russia can’t win. Its a stalemate- but Russia is the one that will eventually lose due to the economic stranglehold.

Right- yeah.

Putin has to make a choice soon. Dissension in the military is growing fast. The economic stranglehold is causing the Russian people to hate Putin en masse. He is having to do crackdowns on citizens, fire “treasonous” generals, replace his personal staff for fear of poisoning.

My guess is the choice will be between 1 and 3. And its gonna happen within weeks, not months.

There are reports that Russians soldiers shooting themselves in their own limbs to get the hell out of Ukraine.

Debacle is too mild a word.

Pentagon estimates 7,000 dead. 14,000 -21,000 injured Russian soldiers.

They are walking off into the woods and abandoning their equipment.

More and more reports of Russian tanks getting buried in the mud.

Helicopters firing rockets in an upward arc which gains distance but kills accuracy so they don’t get close to any ground fire.

The kleptocracy has stolen so much from the country that they are incapable of operating a military 90 miles outside their borders and farmers are towing their tanks away.

There is no recovery from this.

Uzbekistan has turned on Russia

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And in what must be the worst for Putin.

This is the guy who is causing his troubles.

This is the guy the world is rallying around.


It’s been soooooooooo long since we’ve had the right person at the right time.


I was watching a retired military General on the tube when the 7,000 dead number came out. And he said that no amount of propaganda can hide 7K bodies. He said that it won’t be long before families realize that their son’s or daughter’s will not be coming home. And the whole family, friends and neighbors will know about it. And that is when the ■■■■ will hit the fan.

Military leaders are not dumb people. It might be getting close to the point that even the Putin loyal Generals might decide that this whole thing is not worth it. IMHO a military coup might be on the horizon.

I believe it is close. Perhaps weeks perhaps months. But definitely not a full year of this. So Putin is fully cornered- ratchet up or try and take the best peace deal he can get out of Ukraine.

Har har. Its the gayness. Thats Putin’s kryptonite.

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