I know, that’s the point. You want to “adjust” when it confirms your bias and not when it doesn’t.
I can play that game too.
Yes. 10 cases is better than 30. Fewer people have it.
I know you don’t believe that.
In fact, I can find a post from you months ago where you argued to adjust for population.
So at this point, you are just Trolling
Not at the restaurant.
It still forces people together rather than socially distant and outdoors.
Other areas wish they had the mild weather to do outdoor dining.
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Accusing me of trolling is a TOS violation.
Would you rather have 30 cases than 10? I wouldn’t. That’s 3 times the cases to deal with, 3 times the potential fatalities, 3 times the potential spread.
30 x 1.5 = 45 new cases
10 x 1.5 = 15 new cases
Where the infection rate is 1.5. Do we need to keep going?
Here in Indiana, Republican Governor Eric Holcomb had been doingva very good job managingbthis virus, right up until September 25th. On this day the State moved to stage 5 right on the precibus of the fall season…where we expected another wave. Two weeks later to the date…cases started increasing. We went from 6% positivity in my county to 17% positivity today. This is a 68.7% increase in positivity.
How does this happen for one…and two how do you not track it backward…to try to get numbers back down until a vaccine comes.
China is to blame, the U.S. is the only place looking at the virus as a left or right issue. Everyone else is pointing there finger directly were it needs to be pointed China. Because when Covid-19 part III comes down the road its not going to come from Jersey or Florida it will come from the regions of the world who dine on stuff we watch on national geographic.
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You don’t use positivity rate as the metric.
You don’t use new cases as the metric.
You don’t chase those numbers.
It is an exercise in risk tolerance.
I understand
If you say so
Do we really need to keep going? You can’t see what is going to happen next?
Fine
30 x 1.5 = 45 new cases
10 x 1.5 = 15 new cases
Then
45 x 1.5 = 67.5
15 x 1.5 = 22.5
67.5 x 1.5 = 101.25
22.5 x 1.5 = 33.75
For simplicity sake I kept the infection rate at 1.5, which of course won’t happen because it is exponential.
Hospital fail happens at 100 patients.
Who is in better shape? Yours at the fail level or me at 1/3rd capacity?
Personally, I use the daily rate of positive cases over time. I don’t rely on positivity. In Indiana the daily percentage is calculated by number of new positives/ number of new tests.
Sure its an exercise in risk tolerance. I set my level at risk>10%. This is the level that I personally stopped sending people to over crowded day programs. And I still had 4 clients get it from the week prior before it hit 10% or more
Curently I also look at Rt for them two counties in which we do services. That Rt shows the rate of transmission slowed to around .93…and now is slowly on way back up. I watch that rise, and plan accordingly.
Positivity is simply a term the average individual can understand.
They don’t understand what positivity rate measures.
The people you send, are they equal?
I am sure the Democrats think they have the high road here, but I don’t think they realize the backlash that will be coming there way. The next race for Governor in PA is Nov 2022 and without even knowing who is running, I bet the next Governor of PA will be a Republican.
It will be interesting. I think our memory is too short.
Did you change your number? Why?
You might be right but at this moment there are all kinds of people upset with Wolf, not just Trumpers.
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There are a lot of Texans pissed at Abbott for doing too much!
I believe some places are more prone to it because of their history.
That is actually a very interesting statement and indicative of the difference in philosophies (for lack of a more thoughtful term).
The high road referring of course to the more moral path.
