unfortunately, spam ads don’t convince me; however, I am not your average bear which they are targeting…
Still, do you really think that someone whose mind has not already been made up long ago will see/hear one of those ads and suddenly say to themselves, “I think I’ll vote for them.”? At best, those ads are just like billboards and doorknob hangers … good only for name recognition. So when virtually everyone in the country already knows the names of both candidates, they are a complete waste of money. In my opinion, of course.
If I were borderline o which way to vote, I would probably be inclined to vote against the ones with the most unsolicited calls, mailings, money begging. Yeah, I am wondering if all this “contact” is as effective as claimed.
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that’s the rub, knowing the names is far too often the depth of the voter’s knowledge…
Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. The race has tightened post DNC and has mostly frozen where it’s at. Basically, a tossup.
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Tie Harris has broken 50% in one poll
GA: Harris up <1 both have broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up 1 has broken 50% in one poll
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NV: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
Note: Harris has broken 50% in two AZ polls
Note: Harris lead in WI is due to one outlier poll +8
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
MN: Harris up 5+ has broken 50% in one poll
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6 has broken 50% in two polls.
Note: MN drops from marginal to competitive
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
TX: Trump up 8+ has broken 50% in two polls
Note: TX lead includes older outlier, recent polling lead is 4 pts.
Note: If Harris wins the states where she has a lead she wins with 273 EV’s
Note: Without the outlier in WI, (Harris +8), Trump wins with 275 EV’s
What is considered an outlier poll?
Senate races appear to be tightening up with challengers closing the gap regardless of party. I believe this is normal as people start to pay attention.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
OH: Brown(D) up 3+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
PA: Casey(D) up 3 has broken 50% in one poll
MT: Sheehy(R) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has not broken 50% in any poll
FL: Scott(R) up 4+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
MD: Alsobrooks(D) up 5+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: PA(D) moves from marginal to competitive
Note: Scott’s lead (FL) is affected by older polls, his recent lead is 2+ pts
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
TX: Cruz(R) up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Gallego(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
Note: WI lead is only 6+, but over 50% in multiple polls
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
Note: Gallego’s (AZ) lead is affected by one outlier (+15) without it, his lead is 3+
Note: Cruz (TX) lead is affected by older polls, his recent lead is 3 pts
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
When every poll shows one candidate or the other with a lead of between 1 and 3 points, and the average is basically tied, the one that shows either candidate up 8 pts is an outlier.
And before you do it, if I see any Trump outliers I’ll report them too
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Casey only up 3 at this point is very good news for PA and McCormick!!
It was a genuine question not trying to get a gotcha. Thanks for answering.
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Most of the problem with identifying them now is with frequency, especially in the Senate polls which are few and far between. Some are so old they shouldn’t even be in the average. This is true in the less polled Presidential state polls also like FL, TX, NM, NJ, NY, OR, WA, IA, NH and OH. I know they aren’t polled a lot because of expectations, but when polls are done they tend to skew a bit I think.
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I have a learnt a lot about polling mechanics from you. Thanks.
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So then, do you think $200 million for spam ads, which don’t contain anything of substance is a wise use of campaign donations?
wise, that depends on the end… if the goal is name recognition, sure…
substance is tricky… 4 years ago, Kamala’s substance was state control and Biden’s a racist… substance now is a copy of Trump and once elected oops, I am embracing my old positions…
So in this case, the answer is no.
you would be correct! She should spend the whole wad on it!
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Senate races appear to be tightening up with challengers closing the gap regardless of party. I believe this is normal as people start to pay attention.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
OH: Brown(D) up 3+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
PA: Casey(D) up 3 has broken 50% in one poll
MT: Sheehy(R) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has not broken 50% in any poll
FL: Scott(R) up 4+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
MD: Alsobrooks(D) up 5+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: PA(D) moves from marginal to competitive
Note: Scott’s lead (FL) is affected by older polls, his recent lead is 3 pts
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
TX: Cruz(R) up 6 has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Gallego(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
Note: WI lead is only 6+, but over 50% in multiple polls
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
Note: Gallego’s (AZ) lead is affected by one outlier (+15) without it, his lead is 3+
Note: Cruz (TX) lead is affected by older polls, his recent lead is 3+ pts
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. The race has tightened post DNC and has mostly frozen where it’s at. Basically, a tossup.
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Tie Harris has broken 50% in one poll
GA: Harris up <1 both have broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up 1 has broken 50% in one poll
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NV: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
Note: Harris has broken 50% in two AZ polls
Note: Harris lead in WI is due to one outlier poll +8
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
MN: Harris up 5+ has broken 50% in one poll
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6 has broken 50% in two polls.
Note: MN drops from marginal to competitive
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
TX: Trump up 7+ has broken 50% in two polls
Note: TX lead includes older outlier, recent polling lead is 4+ pts.
Note: If Harris wins the states where she has a lead she wins with 273 EV’s
Note: Without the outlier in WI, (Harris +8), Trump wins with 275 EV’s
Trump is toast. Harris nearly tripled Trump in August fundraising. She raised more than any candidate in history for a single month.
Harris - $361 million
Trump - $130 million
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/06/kamala-harris-august-fundraising-00177657
