Current Electoral Math

Politics
1

Looking at the math of the moment

Solid Biden: 191

likely Biden (up by more than 5 points in latest polls average)
11 (ME, NH & NM-- tbh, the trends in these are not good for Biden, they appear to be slipping into the under 5 pt category)

Total 202

Solid Trump: 131

Likely Trump (up by more than 5 pts in latest poll average)

120, (TX, FL, OH, NC, AZ, NV)

Total: 251

less than 5 pt lead by either candidate:

VA, GA, WI, MI, PA, ME2, NE2, MN

For Trump to win he could

Win PA
Win any 2 of the other states

For Biden to win he has to win all except 1 of them and it can’t be PA. The ones he’s currently ahead in are bolded

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2

Nevada is starting to look less like a swing state and more red each poll.

Trump seems to be polling better in the sun belt than the rust belt that being said if he takes the sunbelt he would need just one rust belt state.

3

If the election were to be held tomorrow, I’d predict it would look something like this:

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image900×642 68.4 KB

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4

yes, that is a reflection of current polling

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5

I thnk Trump is likely to win in all of the states where he’s currently leading by 2+ pts, and could win in VA, ME and maybe NM(least likely) That leaves MI, WI and on the extreme outside NH

and none of them matter if he wins PA

Trump should pour money in PA. It will bleed over to VA, MI and WI and help him there too

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6

they’ll do whatever it takes

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7

Yeah, if it was held today, that’s a pretty good prediction. Not sure what it’s gonna look like in six months, but the last few months have been fairly steady polling wise in the states that matter.

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8

PA will be very very very close.

9

At this point I would guess Trump and Casey win.

10

Very possible. Casey will help Biden in PA. Fetterman rise in status and media coverage may well make Casey vulnerable. PA likes one R and one D senator. Casey has been invisible for 12 years.

McCormick has done pretty well and the tepid economy will really help him sell energy policy in PA.

The only surprise I see is if the winner gets more than 2% in the Senate results and 1% in the Presidential results.

11

I’m curious about something. This goes for supporters of both parties. For example, is there anything a Democrat could do to lose California or New York? I’m sure some GOP states are similar. If Biden let the entirety of central America into to California on the populations dime, would they still vote for him? I think yes.

We see some of this stuff in Europe too. Scotland for example. They are introducing LEZ zones which will prevent over a million vehicles from moving around in certain cities. How do these people get reelected? Do people like this stuff?

12

people don’t like it, they complain about it, but they have been conditioned to believe the other side is a threat to them and cannot be allowed to have power even if their side does suck.

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13

the nevada senate race is a tossup.

Allan

14

It’s because teams were created. If everyone stood on their own with no label, this wouldn’t happen. I just find it fascinating.

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15

its gonna come down to Pennsylvania and michigan and those 34 EVs.

Allan

16

This brings back a sense of normality in that the winner of both Ohio and Florida takes the White House.

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17

■■■■■■■ Colorado. It used to be red. Now it’s the Calif of the Rockies. Denver is the San Fran of the Rockies. Boulder is the Berkeley of the Rockies.

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18

things never remain static in American politics.

WV was solid blue and Jersey solid red.

things change,

Allan

19

Great skiing though. Went to Vail and Beaver Creek last year.

20

Ya I was referring to the presidential race for whatever reason he leads their the most of all swing states even more than Georgia.