we’ll see when we et there. I do know Trump has something like 350M COH from what I read. and he’s not wasting 200M on spam ads
1 Like
How will Trump be able to build up name recognition?
3 Likes
You call them spam ads. I call them getting the youth vote. People under 30 don’t watch TV anymore. You reach them where you can which is online.
1 Like
you don’t reach them with spam adds, you piss them off with spam adds
2 Likes
They are not spam ads for the younger generation. This is how they consume media.
I am surprised that with the likes of Vance on board, Trump is not focusing more on this.
Trying to apply the forumula for previous elections no longer works each year the younger generation adds more voters as they turn 18 and they do not consume media, listen/read news like previous generations
Even older voters have shifted somewhat. TV ads are resucing in their effectiveness because of declining viewers.
.
The money was spent on digital ads. You know on Facebook, Google, TikTok, Snapchat and such where young people spend a ton time. You can call them spam if you want, but the under 30 demographic can easily swing the election.
1 Like
the under 30 crowd knows how to use adblocker. in the cases where you can’t, they know how to click “skip ad”
1 Like
Dude…give it up. Adblockers don’t work in apps.
“skip ad” works fine.
no-one anywhere watches one ad on the internet unless they choose to.
2 Likes
My thirty something daughter (a liberal) blocks spam ads. The youth group does not like ads anymore than we boomers do. The under 30 demographic may sway the election, but not because they got spam ads from Kamala on their phones.
Incorporating today’s shifts from Cook and new polling from 538 there is no change in outcomes.
The following races are the races that all of the pundit sites (Sabato, Silver, Cook, DDHQ and Rotherberg) agree either will flip or stand the greatest chance of flipping:
Dem to GOP (Total gains: GOP+5)
NC-1/R+1 District; PA-8/R+4 District; NC-6/Redistricting;
NC-13/Redistricting; NC-14/Redistricting
GOP to Dem (Total gains: Dem+3)
LA-6/Redistricting; AL-2/Redistricting; NY-22/D+5 District
Note: In most other contested districts all of the pundit sites rate the remaining races toss ups or give a slight edge to the incumbent party.
Other House seats with the opportunity to flip (by party demographics) open seat, vulnerable, Polling Flip
Contested (R1 to D1 or Incumbent underwater)
AK01(D)…CA13(R)…CA22(R)…CA27(R)…CA45(R)
CO08(D)…KS03(D)…ME02(D)…MI03(D)…MI07(D)
MI08(D)…MN02(D)…NH01(D)…NJ07(R)…NM02(D)
NY04(R)…NY17(R)…NY19(R)…OH13(D)…OR05(R)
PA01(R)…PA07(D)…PA10(R)…PA17(D)…TX15(R)…VA07(D)
WA03(D)…WA08(D)
Total: 12R, 16D; Vulnerable: 6R, 4D; Polling Flip: 2D, 2R
Competitive R2-R4 and D2-D4
AZ01(R)…AZ06(R)…CA03(R)…CA40(R)…CA41(R)
CA47(D)…CA49(D)…CT05(D)…FL13(R)…GA02(D)…IA01(R)
IA03(R)…IL13(D)…IN01(D)…MD06(D)…MI10(R)…NE02(R)
NH02(D)…NY01(R)…NY18(D)…OH01(D)…OR04(D)…OR06(D)
TX28(D)…TX34(D)…VA02(R)…WI01(R)…WI03(R)
Total: 14R,14D; Vulnerable: 4R; Polling Flip: 1R
Note: Vulnerability is based on party demographics for the district >+2 underwater or recent redistricting changes making the seat more competitive with a party demographic switch.
Note: Some of this is supported by polling now (538), but the polls are mostly candidate commissioned polls.
Note: Taking all of the polling flips, redistricting flips, and most vulnerable seats into account, the result is D+1; If Democrats all win these the result is D+16; If GOP wins all of them the result is R+11
1 Like
Senate races appear to be tightening up with challengers closing the gap regardless of party. I believe this is normal as people start to pay attention.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
OH: Brown(D) up 3+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
PA: Casey(D) up 3 has broken 50% in one poll
MT: Sheehy(R) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has not broken 50% in any poll
FL: Scott(R) up 4+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
MD: Alsobrooks(D) up 5+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: PA(D) moves from marginal to competitive
Note: Scott’s lead (FL) is affected by older polls, his recent lead is 3 pts
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
TX: Cruz(R) up 6 has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Gallego(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
Note: WI lead is only 6+, but over 50% in multiple polls
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
Note: Gallego’s (AZ) lead is affected by one outlier (+15) without it, his lead is 3+
Note: Cruz (TX) lead is affected by older polls, his recent lead is 3+ pts
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
1 Like
Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. The race has tightened post DNC and has mostly frozen where it’s at. Basically, a tossup.
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Tie Harris has broken 50% in one poll
GA: Harris up <1 both have broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up 1 has broken 50% in one poll
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NV: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
Note: Harris has broken 50% in two AZ polls
Note: Harris lead in WI is due to one outlier poll +8
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
MN: Harris up 5+ has broken 50% in one poll
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6 has broken 50% in two polls.
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
TX: Trump up 7+ has broken 50% in two polls
Note: TX lead includes older outlier, recent polling lead is 4+ pts.
Note: If Harris wins the states where she has a lead she wins with 273 EV’s
Note: Without the outlier in WI, (Harris +8), Trump wins with 275 EV’s
1 Like
Thanks Ben.
Great work on these.
All of these are so close.
2 Likes
Newsweek article just came out saying trumps chances of winning is at an all time high.
I feel this really hinges on the upcoming debate. Harris doesnt do well at all. But trump needs to refrain himself. Just like he did with biden. Just allow them to dig their own hole. Trump does well in the debate i believe it will be the push he needs.
Whoah boy.
Yea, I have this feeling trump is going to pull this off. So hard to tell, damn. What are we supoosed to make of all these super tight polls. Going to be a wild election night.
Hold onto your butts.
election night will last three weeks so they can find all the mystery ballots shoved into “official” voting boxes
I see the “Election was rigged!” People are already prepping.
history never repeats
Trump has never lost a “rigged” election. He just lost.
1 Like
