Sorry, raising $540 million and signing up 200,000 volunteers is more than a honeymoon bounce. This election will be decided by the GOTV effort. Trump has hardly none.
did you look at the average of polls I listed from 538?
nc -1
mi -1
pa -1
also, no necessarily. She got a bounce up from not being Biden, sheās still not Biden. But sheās gotten all sheās gonna get out of that.
Now sheās trying to get a bump out of not being Trumpā¦ thatās not working so well, because sheās still her.
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didnāt have the funds or the GOTV in 2016 either.
āPlaygroundā should have been a FBI-level clue.
The bounce was probably Democrats who didnāt feel Biden was capable of being President who came back to the party when he was replaced with someone who was at least of acceptable mental condition. I canāt see why that would go back or increase on its own. We are now still left with a close race but one slightly more favorable to Democrats.
Nonsense. We still have not seen her in any unscripted situation. Only when the real Kamala speaks will the masses see who she is.
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I was a bit surprised that she didnāt get much out of the Convention. Most candidates do. On the other hand, Trump didnāt either.
September 10th ā¦
That was the Biden is out bump.
You might want to check your numbers there. $540 billion? 
Thanks for the heads up Samm. Didnāt see the typo. 
you actually believe she raised that? Funny
Of course she did and a large chunck of it went here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/17/us/politics/kamala-harris-ads.html
Iāll believe when the numbers for August come out.
and LOLā¦ 200M for spam ads
Just stop. Most of what you are giving her credit for raising was already pledged to Biden but withheld when his dementia became too obvious to hide anymore. Those donors told the DNC to get someone else to replace Biden or they would keep their money. They released the money within a week of him dropping out before she was named as the candidate.
Just wondering, but has anyone ever voted for someone because of a spam ad? 
I voted for John Cleese (best lumberjack) because of spam
Fair enough analysis. Cannot say I agree but its food for thought.
Iām referring to the real candidates ā¦ ones who place TV ads, send out tons of campaign appeals in the mail and send minions to knock on your door ā¦ and who spam your email and phone. Has one of those spam ads ever convince you to vote for them?
Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. The race has tightened post DNC and has mostly frozen where itās at. Basically, a tossup.
Note: Only one poll today which resulted predictably inā¦ no change.
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Tie Harris has broken 50% in one poll
GA: Harris up <1 both have broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up 1 has broken 50% in one poll
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NV: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
Note: Harris has broken 50% in two AZ polls
Note: Harris lead in WI is due to one outlier poll +8
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
MN: Harris up 5+ has broken 50% in one poll
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll
Note: MN drops from marginal to competitive
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
OH: Trump up 8+ has broken 50% in two polls
Note: If Harris wins the states where she has a lead she wins with 273 EVās
Note: Without the outlier in WI, (Harris +8), Trump wins with 275 EVās
