Current Electoral Math

Politics
1008

For those interested here are the averages according to 538 for the month of AUG (LV H2H)

AZ: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
GA: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Harris up 2 has broken 50% in 4 polls
NV: Harris up 2+ has broken 50% in two polls
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in two polls
PA: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in 5 polls
VA: Harris up 3 has not broken 50% in any poll
WI: Harris up 2+ has broken 50% in 3 polls

Note: Harris has broken 50% in two polls in GA
Note: Trump has broken 50% in one poll in MI
Note: Trump has broken 50% in one poll in PA
Note: Trump has broken 50% in one poll in WI
Note: Includes outlier in WI Harris +8

FL: Trump up 6 has broken 50% in 3 polls
ME2: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in one poll
MN: Harris up 5 has not broken 50% in any poll
NE2: Harris up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in one poll
TX: Trump up 7 has broken 50% in one poll

Note: NM has no LV-H2H polls, Harris up 7 over 50% (RV)

Note: If Harris wins the states she is currently leading in, she wins with 276 EV’s (NV+NE2)

Note: This comes out no different than RCP with the exception of NV where 538 includes one outlier showing Harris up 9 points without which she would be losing in NV, but still win with exactly 270 EV’s (NE2)

Note: Without the outliers in NV and WI both 538 and RCP show Trump winning with 278 EV’s

1009

Note: Nate Silver election model back to showing Trump ahead 52% to 47%. I would go with its anybodies at this point.

2 Likes
1010

Very informative chart!! :+1: :clap: :clap:

Precious few polls erring the GOP direction!

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1011

overall, I think emerson is the best out there. They are the only pollster that polls in more than 15 states that errs less than 60% on the side of democrats and have the lowest average error in that group.

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1012

Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. The race has tightened post DNC and has mostly frozen where it’s at. Basically, a tossup.

Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)

WI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
MI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in two polls
GA: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NV: Tie Harris has broken 50% in one poll

Note: Harris has broken 50% in two AZ polls
Note: Harris has broken 50% in one poll in GA
Note: Harris lead in WI is due to one outlier poll +8

Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)

MN: Harris up 5+ has broken 50% in one poll
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll

Note: MN drops from marginal to competitive

Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)

OH: Trump up 8+ has broken 50% in two polls

Note: If Harris wins the states where she has a lead and NE2 she wins with 270 EV’s

Note: Without the outlier in WI, (Harris +8), Trump wins with 272 EV’s and NV still outstanding

1 Like
1013

Thank you for your work on this thread. :grinning:

2 Likes
1014

Senate races are largely solidifying with the GOP ending up with 51 seats.

Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.

Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

None

Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

PA: Casey(D) up 3 has broken 50% in one poll
MT: Sheehy(R) up 5 has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has not broken 50% in any poll
OH: Brown(D) up 5 has broken 50% in one poll
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
MD: Alsobrooks(D) up 5+ has not broken 50% in any poll

Note: PA(D) moves from marginal to competitive

Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Gallego(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll

Note: WI lead is only 6+, but over 50% in multiple polls
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
Note: Gallego’s lead is affected by one outlier (+15) without which his lead is 3+

GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX

DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins

Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.

1015

The following races are the races that all of the pundit sites (Sabato, Silver, Cook, DDHQ and Rotherberg) agree either will flip or stand the greatest chance of flipping:

Dem to GOP (Total gains: GOP+5)
NC-1/R+1 District; PA-8/R+4 District; NC-6/Redistricting;
NC-13/Redistricting; NC-14/Redistricting

GOP to Dem (Total gains: Dem+3)
LA-6/Redistricting; AL-2/Redistricting; NY-22/D+5 District

Note: In most other contested districts all of the pundit sites rate the remaining races toss ups or give a slight edge to the incumbent party.

Other House seats with the opportunity to flip (by party demographics) open seat, vulnerable, Polling Flip

Contested (R1 to D1 or Incumbent underwater)
AK01(D)…CA13(R)…CA22(R)…CA27(R)…CA45(R)
CO08(D)…KS03(D)…ME02(D)…MI03(D)…MI07(D)
MI08(D)…MN02(D)…NH01(D)…NJ07(R)…NM02(D)
NY04(R)…NY17(R)…NY19(R)…OH13(D)…OR05(R)
PA01(R)…PA07(D)…PA10(R)…PA17(D)…TX15(R)…VA07(D)
WA03(D)…WA08(D)

Total: 12R, 16D; Vulnerable: 6R, 4D; Polling Flip: 2D, 2R

Competitive R2-R4 and D2-D4
AZ01(R)…AZ06(R)…CA03(R)…CA40(R)…CA41(R)
CA47(D)…CA49(D)…CT05(D)…FL13(R)…GA02(D)…IA01(R)
IA03(R)…IL13(D)…IN01(D)…MD06(D)…MI10(R)…NE02(R)
NH02(D)…NY01(R)…NY18(D)…OH01(D)…OR04(D)…OR06(D)
TX28(D)…TX34(D)…VA02(R)…WI01(R)…WI03(R)

Total: 14R,14D; Vulnerable: 4R; Polling Flip: 1R

Note: Vulnerability is based on party demographics for the district >+2 underwater or recent redistricting changes making the seat more competitive with a party demographic switch.

Note: Some of this is supported by polling now (538), but the polls are mostly candidate commissioned polls.

Note: Taking all of the polling flips, redistricting flips, and most vulnerable seats into account, the result is D+1; If Democrats all win these the result is D+16; If GOP wins all of them the result is R+11

1016

Have internal candidate commissioned polls historically shown to be more accurate?

Unlike media orgs or other orgs who may have an agenda I would imagine that campaigns want the real data as much as possible. Pointless other wise.

1017

Not the ones they release. They release them for a reason as a part of their campaigns.

  1. If they’re a serious underdog, they may release a poll showing them to be close to motivate their constituents.

  2. If they are a serious favorite, they may release polls showing them with big leads to depress opposition turnout.

  3. They may release polls showing a competitive race, whether or not it actually is, as a part of fund raising.

As an example, there was one race in NY I believe that had 3 polls, one dem, one R and one independent. The independent was Emerson, which is very respectable. Its an R seat in a D+ district

The D poll showed the Dem up 8 points (depressing R turnout)
The R poll showed the Dem up 1 (fund raising)
Emerson showed the R up 2

2 Likes
1018

Thanks for the insight. On Election night will you be streaming with a big map of the USA doing the math :grinning::grinning::grinning:

1019

LOL… I’ll be here, following the returns and updating

1 Like
1020

Seconded, this is good stuff.

Wish the election were sooner, lol.

1021

May be interesting to look at only polls from the last 30 days. I have no idea how it will shake out. Maybe it will show continued movement toward Harris beyond the first few days when Biden dropped out. Lets see

NV-(H+0); Aug only: Trump up <1; First few days: Trump up<1
AZ-(H+0); Aug only: Trump up <1; First few days: Trump up <1
WI-(H+0); Aug only Harris up <1; First few days: Harris up 1
MI-(H+1); Aug only: Harris up 1+; First few days: Harris up >1
PA-(H+1); Aug only: Harris up <1; First few days: Trump up 1
NC-(H+0); Aug only: Trump up <1; First few days: Trump up <1
GA-(H+1); Aug only: Harris up <1; First few days: Trump up <1

Momentum!
Note: Excludes one outlier poll showing Harris up by 8 in WI and 11 in MI

1022

Now lets look at 538’s LV H2H polls

AZ-(H+0): Aug only: tie; First few days: Trump up <1
GA-(H+0): Aug only: Trump up <1; First few days: Trump up <1
MI-(H-1): Aug only: Harris up <1; First few days: Harris up 1+
NV-(H+2): Aug only: Harris up <1; First few days: Trump up 2
NC-(H-1): Aug only: Trump up <1; First few days: Harris up 1
PA-(H-1): Aug only: Harris up <1; First few days: Harris up 1+
WI-(H+0): Aug Only: Harris up 1+; First few days: Harris up 2

Man-Oh-Man… Look at her go!

1023

As we move into September, if Harris continues to gain ground this now has to be attributed to her personally not a honeymoon bump, not dems feeling relieved Biden dropped out.

And the reverse is true if she starts dropping it has to be attributed to her personally.

1024

what do you mean continues to gain ground? She hasn’t really gained ground since the beginning of August.

According to RCP average, she gained 1 PT in GA, MI and PA. Thats it. 0 anywhere else

According to 538’s LV polls she’s gained 2 PT’s in NV, Lost 1 PT in MI, NC and PA and 0 anywhere else.

1025

Just look at Bidens poll numbers and yes she has gained ground. Trump has pretty much remained static. She has closed the gap. Whether that upward move continues into a lead for Harris remains to be seen.

1026

That’s not the discussion. However, no problem.

Yes, she gained ground on where Biden was due to the irrational exuberance democrats had throwing Biden overboard. She’s gained nothing since.

She got a bye, bye Biden bounce, that’s it.

2 Likes
1027

But if its just a bounce then logic says that bounce has to return to earth and she will drop back. So far not seeing that.