Yes it will likely be close, but Trump probably needs to win PA, NC, GA and NV and I don’t see that happening.
Probably tight in each of those states but Kamala wins 2 or even 3 of them.
why would he need to win PA?
If he wins AZ, NV, GA and NC he only has to win NE02 to win. He’s currently leading in all except AZ and thats not only recent, but due to questionable polls. He’s been up 5-8 pts in AZ all year.
I don’t think he wins AZ.
Abortion on the ballot.
Kari Lake.
Biden won in 2020.
Moving hard towards Harris.
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And he is down in NC, and GA and NV are virtually tied.
Sorry not going by the RCP averages.
And unlikely he wins PA. He isn’t spending $$ and Blue Wall seems to be reforming.
how does abortion hurt Trump? He’s not trying to do anything to it. Not a federal issue.
Biden won in 2020 by 0.39%. You think Trump is in worse shape now than he was then?
Yes I think Trump is in worse shape with his performances and lack of crowds/enthusiasm and J6.
Abortion is a loser issue for Republicans - just look at all the recent history. There is sufficient worry that a la Project 25, Trump will try to push a Federal ban or limit access in other ways like defunding Planned Parenthood. It is a very salient issue at the moment and I think it kills him in AZ.
And Kamala isn’t Biden I think she and Walz have positive momentum.
Republicans kept abortion off the ballot in NC, but they have a Governor problem.
Mark Robinson in NC and Kari Lake in AZ will really hurt Trump.
It will drive Dems to vote and hurts with those that vote straight line but can’t stomach the crazy.
NC wouldn’t have been, but it is now a toss up.
if you’re not going to go by the average I could just as well say Trump was up in all of them.
Rasmussen AZ Trump +1
NYT/Sienna GA Trump +3
Cook NV Trump +5
Fabbrizio MI Trump +2
Emmerson PA Trump +1
Trafalgar NC Trump +4
Doug Mastriano, Hershel Walker, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Dr. Oz
These choices had consequences.
Say whatever you want.
RCP averages have their own biases and problems.
I go by Nate Silver.
I am a numbers/stats guy and perhaps you are too, so you can think of Nate Silver as a Lib but then you don’t really know his background and have not dug into his analysis.
RCP is very basic.
I live in NC, I don’t see a problem
Sometimes it is the **** we don’t see.
I have my biases and preferences and you have yours.
The question is - post Dem Convention when the “real” campaign begins and there is even more spotlight on the candidates including the debate - who will that spotlight favor?
I would argue that both candidates will have good and bad moments, but I think Kamala is far better equipped to deal with that intense 8-10 weeks.
She is not perfect but have you seen Trump lately? I mean really. His performances are just awful. He has added nothing at all to the repertoire. His energy is extremely low. He is making bad mistakes and rambling and uncertain. He has not even really pivoted his attack to Harris from Biden. And it shows in the response - his rallies have been really weak.
A lot of this is locked in, but I expect a lot of the soft Trump vote to not bother, out of laziness or embarrassment.
I also expect Kamala will benefit from ‘vibes’ and conversely drive a lot of enthusiasm and vote from soft Dems who want to be on winning side, want to be done with the Trump era and want to tell their grand kids they voted in the first woman President.
Looks like it is close. This is still during Kamala’s honeymoon. Polls taken before the debates are interesting, but not very meaningful.
It’s also noteworthy that in many of the polls, conservative are poorly represented compared to the percent of conservatives in the population. Conservatives as a group tend to eschew polls, but not the election itself. Just ask Hillary about that …
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the gov race will be close.
Okay. It looks like it’s going to be close, and it is close.
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LOL… fever dreams.
I’ve seen Trump, he’s fine. He’s Trump, same as he ever was. He’s not making any more mistakes or rambling any more than he always has. He gives 2 1/2 hour speeches, bound to ramble a little. His attack has pivoted, and you just confuse him attacking the biden/harris administration with attacking Biden.
Harris “vibes” is done. The irrational exuberance is played out. Now she’s talking policies. Very extreme very unpopular and very insane policies mixed in with some populist themes that won’t wash.
The election will be close. I have no idea which one will win. But we’ll probably have a good idea after debates. I think the debate will be pretty much a wash and both sides will claim victory. Where you get the idea that Trump isn’t equipped to deal with 8-10 weeks of a campaign, I’ll never know. He will be out there doing his thing, will Kamala still be hiding in the basement?
And I am sure you will have an explanation/justification when Kamala comes out of the Convention with outside of margin error leads in most/all of the swing states.
Maybe you can say none of it matters until the debate.
And then what?
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not going to happen
Get your explanations ready just in case.
