don’t need one. she’ll gain a point, maybe two, it will dissipate before the debate and we’ll be right back where we are now. basically tied
Your faith in Trump not saying more stupid stuff between now and then is misplaced. He can’t help himself. He has zero self-control.
more stupid than this?
Currently …
Let’s check back after the real campaign gets going.
1 Like
The Convention is nothing more than the second honeymoon.
So yes … It does not matter until the debate(s). Then, if she still has an outside the margin of error lead, you might have a winner. Right now though, it’s all a lot of smoke.
Your faith in Kamala not saying more stupid stuff between now and then is misplaced.
1 Like
Okay, it looks like it’s going to be close, and it is close, but that might change in the future.
Got it.
1 Like
Which candidate shown more discipline up to this point?
Hard to say. We haven’t seen much of Kamala. Of course, that might be the plan. After all it worked for Biden in '20.
1 Like
I think that’s the plan. It might be the right plan.
But what do I know? I just fell out of a coconut tree.
1 Like
I do, I have, he’s a leftist hack from a leftist hack network. he just included aa poll (focalpoint) which surveyed 100 people, did not track party, did not track gender, did not track voting paterns covering 10 states. It may have been 100 in each state, it may have just been 100. Its not clear because they don’t make it clear. And yet he posted it and includes it in his “averages”. The poll is obvious garbage, but it does show Kamala ahead!
biases? They are rated “least biased”. They don’t add anything to polls, they don’t take away anything, and they don’t “weight” them against each other to manipulate the average.
Basic is good!
Problems? Yeah all of them do. The aaverage might not reflect the now. It takes too long for swings to effect the average.
For sure. The fewer times she is in front of a microphone without a script, the better off the Ds will be.
I wonder how many times we will see her adjust her newly acquired hearing aids during the Debate like we saw Hillary do. 
And now, back to the subject of the thread!
Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. Generally, helps Trump in most swing states, but not all.
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1 has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Harris up 2 has broken 50% in two polls
PA: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
GA: Trump up 1 has broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up <1 has not broken 50% in any poll
NC: Trump up <1 has not broken 50% in any poll
NV: Trump up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll
MN: Harris up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
MN: Harris up 8 has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Trump up 8+ has broken 50% in two polls
*Note: This data includes 2-way polling since RFK has now dropped out.
Note: If Trump wins the states he is currently leading he wins.
todays map based upon your polls you posted today
Harris 281
trump 241
undecided 16
Allan
I suppose that is how it is reported in some media. If you go to his actual speeches in YouTube you, or at least I, do not find that to be correct.
Yes, I said quite clearly that if Harris won the states she is currently leading in she will win. Was that hard to understand?
and i gave the numbers. not quite a landslide but a nice 180 from the trump/biden numbers
Allan
Senate races are largely solidifying. For both this and the Presidential polls, much of the movement is due to two polls. Cook and Sienna. Cook has Rosen up 18 points, which he is not. Sienna has him up 9 points. All other polls are in the 2-5 pt range.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
None
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
AZ: Gallego(D) up 6+ has broken 50% in three polls
MT: Sheehy(R) up 5 has broken 50% in three polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Brown(D) up 5 has broken 50% in two polls
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: MT and AZ move from contested to competitive
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in two poll
NM: Heinrich is up 7 has not broken 50% in any poll
PA: Casey up 7+ pts has broken 50% in two polls
Note: NV moves off the list
Note: TX back on Marginal list
Note: WI lead is only 6+, but over 50% in 9 polls
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
