How many times do you intend on repeating yourself? We have been over this at least twice already.
That you believe it is a gift and not a payment for services tenders ? I got that. That’s not the question though.
And if you answered this question differently please let me know because i don’t remember discussing this with you
If a server is hired and told that he will be paid below the min wage hourly and that he is basically working for tips then why does it matter if you believe that you are gifting him the gratuity. He considers it income. Why shouldn’t the government?
You don’t have to have discussed it with me, it has been discussed several times. Read the thread.
You don’t get it. They are being told that they will be paid less than minimum wage and that tips are part of their pay because government is telling them that tips are considered taxable income.
Presumably, that will change regardless of who wins the election in November.
It will not change, regardless of who wins. It will be quietly forgotten after the election. Maybe a half hearted attempt to pass something and then nothing.
Why do you think that? What is the basis of your belief besides your opinion?
As you well know, there is absolutely going to be a debate regarding extension of the so-called Trump tax cut for individuals that is set to expire in 2025. It’s extremely likely that this tip issue will be part of that debate. And it’s such an easy change to make … so easy in fact, that they could do that and still not extend the overall cuts.
Time will tell who is right. All anyone has right now on this is opinions. You have no more evidence or proof that the elimination of tax on tips is going to happen than My opinion that it will never happen.
What I have is both candidates promising something that is easy to do. (When has that ever happened before?) Sure they could reneg, or Congress could fight them, but as I said, this would be an easy one to demonstrate that they really do care about the working poor.
you should NOT go to expensive restaurants.
Allan
And now, back to the subject of the thread!
Electoral Template. Change to 5-way polling. Leads shrink, fewer polls reach 50% threshold. 5-way polling seems to benefit whoever is trailing in any state in the 2-way (with the exceptions of MI and NH).
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
MI: Harris up 2+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Harris up 2+ has not broken 50% in any poll
GA: Trump up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
AZ: Harris up 1 neither has broken 50% in any poll
NC: Tie neither has broken 50% in any poll
NV: Trump up 2+ has broken 50% in any poll
VA: Harri up 3+ has not broken 50% in any polls
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
NH: Harris up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll.
FL: Trump up 5 has not broken 50% in any poll
MN: Harris up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
None
Note: This data includes 5-way polling where RFK is on the ballot, or his petition has not been denied (NY-saving democracy)
Note: If Harris wins the states she is currently leading she wins.
Looking deeper at contested races the following races are the races that all of the pundit sites (Silver, Cook, DDHQ and Rotherberg) agree either will flip or stand the greatest chance of flipping:
Dem to GOP (Total gains: GOP+5)
NC-1/R+1 District; PA-8/R+4 District; NC-6/Redistricting;
NC-13/Redistricting; NC-14/Redistricting
GOP to Dem (Total gains: Dem+4)
NY-17/D+3 District; LA-6/Redistricting; AL-2/Redistricting;
NY-22/D+5 District
Note: In all other contested districts all of the pundit sites rate the remaining races toss ups or give a slight edge to the incumbent party.
Other House seats with the opportunity to flip (by party demographics) open seat most vulnerable
Contested (R1 to D1 or Incumbent underwater)
CA13(R)…CA27(R)…CO08(D)…MI07(D)…NM02(D)…OR05(R)
MI08(D)…OH13(D)…PA07(D)…WA08(D)…ME02(D)…OH09(D)
PA17(D)…NJ07(R)…NY19(R)…AK01(D)…CA22(R)…NY04(R)
CA45(R)…MN02(D)…NV03(D)…NH01(D)…MI03(D)…KS03(D)
VA07(D)…TX15(R)…PA01(R)…PA10(R)…WA03(D)
11R, 16D Most Vulnerable: 7R, 9D
Competitive R2-R4 and D2-D4
CA47(D)…AZ01(R)…OH01(D)…VA02(R)…AZ06(R)…CA41(R)
IA03(R)…WI03(R)…CA49(D)…MD06(D)…NV01(D)…NH02(D)
CT05(D)…IL13(D)…IN01(D)…NY18(D)…OR06(D)…TX28(D)
NV04(D)…NE02(R)…OR04(D)…CA03(R)…CA40(R)…IA01(R)
NY01(R)…WI01(R)…MI10(R)…GA02(D)…TX34(D)
12R, 16D Most Vulnerable: 4R, 0D
*Note: Vulnerability is based on party demographics for the district >+2 underwater or recent redistricting changes making the seat more competitive with a party demographic switch.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
None
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
AZ: Gallego(D) up 5 has broken 50% in three polls
MT: Sheehy(R) up 4+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Brown(D) up 5 has broken 50% in two polls
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: MT moves from contested to competitive
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
NV: Rosen(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
NM: Heinrich is up 7 has not broken 50% in any poll
PA: Casey up 7+ pts has broken 50% in five polls
Note: NV moves from competitive to marginal
Note: TX back on Marginal list
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
i see it. deleted.
Allan
And now, back to the subject of the thread!
Electoral Template. Change to 5-way polling. Leads shrink, fewer polls reach 50% threshold. 5-way polling seems to benefit whoever is trailing in any state in the 2-way (with the exceptions of MI and NH).
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
MI: Harris up 2+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Harris up 2+ has not broken 50% in any poll
GA: Trump up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
AZ: Harris up 1 has not broken 50% in any poll
NC: Tie neither has broken 50% in any poll
NV: Trump up 2+ has not broken 50% in any poll
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 6+ has not broken 50% in any poll.
FL: Trump up 5 has not broken 50% in any poll
MN: Harris up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
None
Note: This data includes 5-way polling where RFK is on the ballot, or his petition has not been denied (NY-saving democracy)
Note: If Harris wins the states she is currently leading, she wins.
Senate races are largely solidifying. For both this and the Presidential polls, much of the movement is due to two polls. Cook and Sienna. Cook has Rosen up 18 points, which he is not. Sienna has him up 9 points. All other polls are in the 2-5 pt range.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
None
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
AZ: Gallego(D) up 6+ has broken 50% in three polls
MT: Sheehy(R) up 4+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Brown(D) up 5 has broken 50% in two polls
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: MT and AZ move from contested to competitive
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
NV: Rosen(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
NM: Heinrich is up 7 has not broken 50% in any poll
PA: Casey up 7+ pts has broken 50% in two polls
Note: NV moves from competitive to marginal
Note: TX back on Marginal list
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
As an aside, just so everyone is informed I did check Sienna and Cook. I did find an anomaly in each.
First, Cook was not state polls but a combined “battleground poll” from which state results were extrapolated and in which it polled 10% more women than men and twice as many Blacks as Hispanics. Otherwise, the crosstabs were not far off demographically. It showed on average about a 5pt difference from other polls. Except for NV which is an outlier (18 pts for Rosen).
The sienna poll had the same flaw as the last sienna poll. When asked who they voted for in 2020 Biden had a 6 pt advantage. But he won AZ but less than 1. It’s more the 5pts skewed not based on party, sex, or any other thing that could be explained, but in direct votes. This leads me to believe part of the state was likely oversampled.
In GA, there were 2% more Trump than Biden voters which means it was skewed somewhat there. They also polled 6X more Blacks than Hispanics which seems a bit excessive.
In NV they polled 6% more Biden voters than Trump, Biden won by 2.4%. Otherwise the crosstabs look good.
In NC they polled 4X more Black than Hispanic voters otherwise the tabs look good.
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overall, I would say the RCP average is fairly close but in NV and AZ it slightly skewed toward Harris due to these polls. And skewed greatly toward Rosen in NV.
Just some side analysis. I believe the bump of irrational exuberance has played out and the DNC convention will freeze it in place until its over. I expect a very slight shift (maybe a point, maybe two) after the convention and then for things to level out likely around where they are now. Where it will stay until debates.
Thanks for the updates.
Looks like it’s going to be close.
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