Current Electoral Math

[biggestal99]

@Samm

. You do not get better service on a $100 meal than you do with a $20 meal

you get better food and take longer to eat 100 dollars worth of food.

dont be a cheapskate. tip your server.

Allan

[Samm]

@GWH

@Nemesis

Not taxing tips is never going to become reality. Thats why its stupid.

lol. It’s already a reality. This just makes it official.

That’s why I tip in cash at the coffee shop … to give the baristas the opportunity to cheat on their taxes.

[Samm]

@tnt

@Samm

Yes. That is compensation from the employer, not from the customers. And it is recorded as such in your books, no differently than their regular wages.

Income is income.

Tips are income.

You’re a good lib.

[Samm]

@tnt

@Samm

I’m not the one who is confused. Tips for good service are completely between the customer and the server. They are a gift of appreciation. Period.

No, they’re not.

The government recognizes them as income, and because they are so typical, allows people to be paid less by the hour in expectation of the income from tips.

The government recognizes only one thing … by designating tips gifted by customers in appreciation of a job well done as income, they can take more money away from people who may really need the money.

Customary tipping used to be 10% … when good service was provided. Some 30-40 years ago (coincidentally when the '84 tax law was passed) that jumped to 15%. Now it’s up to 20-25% … because the workers are being shorted by their employers and are being dinged by the government as well. It’s a stupid system that was imposed to fix something that was working just fine before government got more greedy and stepped in.

[Samm]

@FreeAndClear

Gifts are taxable as income.

This entire discussion is so silly.

It doesn’t matter where ascension to wealth comes from or the reason for it. If it is income regardless of source and even if it’s a gift - it’s taxable as income in this country.

Tips are also often pooled so while i applaud anyone who tips or gifts someone for their services - it is completely irrelevant to whether it constitutes income.

■■■■■■■■■ Have you ever reported a gift as income?

Large gifts are taxable … and the tax is paid by the gift ever, not the recipient. Last year I gave a nephew property worth $60k. That amount was recorded against my lifetime allowable exemption (which I think is around $2 million now) from the gift tax. But my nephew was not taxed one nickel.

[Samm]

@tnt

@toreyj01

Harris sort of nailed the problem, rich folks see “tax free income” and are already devising ways to call their income “tips”. There has to be a ceiling if you are going to do something like this, otherwise some hedge fund guy is going to make 20 million a year in tips.

I think it’s easier to treat all income the same, and adjust the floor under which no one pays federal income tax.

So … A flat tax with a significant personal deduction. That’s what I support. Why not work toward that goal instead of going after low-income service workers.

[Samm]

@toreyj01

@tnt

@Samm

But the argument is that tips aren’t income, they are a gift.

And I think that’s incorrect. I think tips are income. It’s an expected part of the dining out experience, to the point that many states allow employers to pay less than minimum wage because tips are expected income.

Since the pandemic many restaurants add the tip to the bill, no option to skip out on it. One nice place near me puts it at 18 percent, above the typical floor of 15 percent. That isn’t a gift any longer, that is part of your bill. And I don’t blame businesses for doing it, if they choose to. Just make sure the customer is aware because I double tipped there a few times before I figured it out. Now, I like it because I don’t have to work out the tip in my head, it’s just included in the bill.

No question, if it’s on the bill, it’s income. But if I want to give the server another $10 cash because they were exceptional, that’s between me and them.

[Samm]

@biggestal99

@Samm

■■■■■■■■■ That’s just what you tell yourself.

it is a fact, nothing i have to tell myself.

servers NEED tips to survive, you should not go out to eat
unless you tip, Not gift at least at the minimum 15%

You’re a good lib Allan.

[Samm]

@biggestal99

@Samm

. You do not get better service on a $100 meal than you do with a $20 meal

you get better food and take longer to eat 100 dollars worth of food.

dont be a cheapskate. tip your server.

That was not the question Allan. Did the server work five times harder or do the job that they were paid to do five times better?

I can answer that for you with 100% confidence … NO.

And you are wrong about what you said there too. More than likely you will get smaller portions of food with the more expensive dinner. And your drinks, which are exactly the same size regardless of the restaurant, probably cost twice as much too. The only reason it takes you longer to eat it is because they take more time (slower service) to get it to you because the longer you sit there the more likely you are to order more of those double priced drinks and follow the meal with after dinner drinks and desert.

[Nemesis]

Still waiting to know which posters who state a tip is a gift have successfully argued that in front of the IRS.

Also someone who is a server and reports zero tips or very low amount of tips is just asking for the IRS to question their tax return.

No one likes getting taxed, I bitch and moan as much as the next person but its a reality of life and its not going to change.

[Nemesis]

@Ben_Natuf

and I think you’re smart enough to know what is being said.

They are currently treated as wages. They should not be, because they are not wages. They are a gratuity, a gift, and should be treated like any other gift. You get wages from your employer, not your employers customers. Not to mention, when I tip a waitress, I’m not trying to tip the IRS.

We will agree to disagree. I am sure tax advisors across the country tell their clients, no need to declare tips as they are a gift .

But like I said there is no way either Harris or Trump are goong to keep this election promise.

[tnt]

@Samm

@tnt

I think it’s easier to treat all income the same, and adjust the floor under which no one pays federal income tax.

So … A flat tax with a significant personal deduction. That’s what I support. Why not work toward that goal instead of going after low-income service workers.

Not a flat tax.

Treat all income the same in a progressive tax code.

Would result in lower taxe rates across the board - significantly lower - and a simplisty to the code that we lack.

If you are worried about low wage earners, just raise the floor for federal taxes.

[Ben_Natuf]

Trump will.

[Ben_Natuf]

And now, back to the subject of the thread!

Electoral Template. Change to 5-way polling. Leads shrink, fewer polls reach 50% threshold. 5-way polling seems to benefit whoever is trailing in any state in the 2-way (with the exceptions of MI and NH).

Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)

WI: Harris up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
MI: Harris up 2+ has broken 50% in one poll
PA: Harris up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
GA: Trump up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
AZ: Tie neither has broken 50% in any poll
NC: Trump up 1+ has not broken 50% in any poll
NV: Trump up 2+ has broken 50% in any poll

Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)

VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 6+ has not broken 50% in any poll.
FL: Trump up 5 has not broken 50% in any poll
MN: Harris up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll

Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)

None

Note: This data includes 5-way polling where RFK is on the ballot, or his petition has not been denied (NY-saving democracy)

Note: If either wins the states they are currently leading in Harris needs only to win AZ to win, Trump needs AZ and NE2

[Ben_Natuf]

Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.

Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

AZ: Gallego(D) up 3+ has broken 50% in one poll

Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

MT: Sheehy(R) up 4+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 5+ has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Brown(D) up 5 has broken 50% in two polls
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NV: Rosen(D) up 4 has broken 50% in one poll (in Jun)
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll

Note: MT moves from contested to competitive

Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)

TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in one poll
NM: Heinrich is up 7 has not broken 50% in any poll
PA: Casey up 7+ pts has broken 50% in five polls

Note: Removed WI; Baldwin. She’s breaking 50% consistantly
Note: TX back on Marginal list
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip

GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX

DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins

Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.

[Ben_Natuf]

Looking deeper at contested races the following races are the races that all of the pundit sites (Silver, Cook, DDHQ and Rotherberg) agree either will flip or stand the greatest chance of flipping:

Dem to GOP (Total gains: GOP+6)
NC-1/R+1 District; PA-8/R+4 District; WA-3/R+4 District;
NC-6/Redistricting; NC-13/Redistricting; NC-14/Redistricting

GOP to Dem (Total gains: Dem+5)
NY-17/D+3 District; LA-6/Redistricting; AL-2/Redistricting;
NY-22/D+5 District; NY-4/D+5 District

Note: In all other contested districts all of the pundit sites rate the remaining races toss ups or give a slight edge to the incumbent party.

Other House seats with the opportunity to flip (by party demographics) open seat most vulnerable

Contested (R1 to D1 or Incumbent underwater)
CA13(R)…CA27(R)…CO08(D)…MI07(D)…NM02(D)…OR05(R)
MI08(D)…OH13(D)…PA07(D)…WA08(D)…ME02(D)…OH09(D)
PA17(D)…NJ07(R)…NY19(R)…AK01(D)…CA22(R)…NE02(R)
CA45(R)…MN02(D)…NV03(D)…NH01(D)…MI03(D)…KS03(D)
VA07(D)…TX15(R)…PA01(R)
10R, 17D Most Vulnerable: 6R, 9D

Competitive R2-R4 and D2-D4
CA47(D)…AZ01(R)…OH01(D)…VA02(R)…AZ06(R)…CA41(R)
IA03(R)…WI03(R)…CA49(D)…MD06(D)…NV01(D)…NH02(D)
CT05(D)…IL17(D)…IN01(D)…NY18(D)…OR06(D)…TX28(D)
NV04(D)…NY03(D)…OR04(D)…CA03(R)…CA40(R)…IA01(R)
NY01(R)…WI01(R)…MI10(R)…CA45(R)
10R, 18D Most Vulnerable: 3R, 0D

Note: Vulnerability is based on party demographics for the district >+2 underwater or recent redistricting changes making the seat more competitive with a party demographic switch.

[DougBH]

@FreeAndClear

Gifts are subject to income taxes. There is a one time exception but overall they are subject to income tax.

Gifts are subject to gift taxes, not income taxes. It’s a different section of the code. Of course, currently tips are a part of the income tax code. Legally, they are what the code says they are.
Personally, I could care less how they treat them. Do most waiters or waitresses have sufficient income to pay that much in income taxes? I guess some must.

[Samm]

@Nemesis

Still waiting to know which posters who state a tip is a gift have successfully argued that in front of the IRS.

Also someone who is a server and reports zero tips or very low amount of tips is just asking for the IRS to question their tax return.

No one likes getting taxed, I bitch and moan as much as the next person but its a reality of life and its not going to change.

No one is saying that the IRS does not consider tips to be taxable. What people … including both Trump and Harris … are saying is that they should not be taxed. Why is it that you libs © always get the argument wrong?

[Samm]

@tnt

@Samm

@tnt

I think it’s easier to treat all income the same, and adjust the floor under which no one pays federal income tax.

So … A flat tax with a significant personal deduction. That’s what I support. Why not work toward that goal instead of going after low-income service workers.

Not a flat tax.

Treat all income the same in a progressive tax code.

Would result in lower taxe rates across the board - significantly lower - and a simplisty to the code that we lack.

If you are worried about low wage earners, just raise the floor for federal taxes.

Treating all income the same is the core element of a flat tax. And if the “floor” as you call it, is $40-50,000 as I suggested, the poor would pay no Federal taxes. Middle income currently starts just over $40k.

[FreeAndClear]

@Samm

@Nemesis

Still waiting to know which posters who state a tip is a gift have successfully argued that in front of the IRS.

Also someone who is a server and reports zero tips or very low amount of tips is just asking for the IRS to question their tax return.

No one likes getting taxed, I bitch and moan as much as the next person but its a reality of life and its not going to change.

No one is saying that the IRS does not consider tips to be taxable. What people … including both Trump and Harris … are saying is that they should not be taxed. Why is it that you libs © always get the argument wrong?

Why should they not be taxed? What percentage of hospitality staff are outside the 47 percent who pay no taxes at all? If they as the right loves to point out for the most part pay no taxes why shouldn’t the government max out tax receipts against them?