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its not marginal, only to mindless numbers crunchers.

biden will win jersey quite comfortably despite the numbers presented.

Allan

62

I did not say otherwise. Just classifying according to objective criteria.

Is Texas blue yet? Is that an example of your “critical thinking?” If so, I can think of reasons to criticize, but I’m coming up empty on seeing any “thinking”

63

Plus the whole assumption about Texas turning blue is fundamentally flawed anyway. They base it entirely on Hispanic population growth. Which totally ignores how Hispanic people tend to vote once they age a little bit and the disparity between local elections and federal elections in that ethnic group. Younger Hispanics tend to vote democratic from top to bottom but older Hispanics have a habit of voting blue in local elections and red in federal elections.

64

Today’s Harvard/Harris poll has Trump up six points nationally.

Republicans have only won the popular vote in a presidential election one time since 1988, amazingly.

65

As James Caravelle said … “It’s the economy stupid.”

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66

Why are you arguing against the numbers? Do you not understand what “NJ: Biden is up 7 pts” means?

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67

amd wont win the popular in 2024 either.

Allan

68

biden won jersey by 16 in 2020. expect a similar rout this year.

Allan

69

Oh yes, they might.

Harvard/Harris is a reputable pollster. Trump +6 today.

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Gods man, I know you’re (d)efensive of NJ, but this obstinance is ridiculous.

Biden is ahead in NJ by 7 pts and has not broken 50% in any poll. That criteria puts it in the “Marginal play” states along with TX and FL. As things stand, does Biden have any chance in TX or FL? No. As things stand, does Trump really have a chance in NJ? No.

It would take a miracle for either one of them to win those states. But if the stars align, the planets are all in place, the earth burns, and everything we know changes… it could happen.

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71

What difference would that make? The point is, the numbers you are dismissing as wrong would produce the exact same result as the last time … 14 votes for Biden.

72

i disagree on the term “marginal” if you were trump. you’d throw money into jersey. thats not a very good use of campaign resources.

and heres a helpful hint. nobody is hitting 50% this year.

lots of dissatisfied voters.

Allan

73

why do leftists lie so much? I have clearly said where I would spend money, and NJ ain’t it.

perhaps you should look at the numbers in the polls. Both candidates have broken 50% in multiple polls depending on the state.

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74

More interested in the undecided vote right now.

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not a huge pool to swim in. From the numbers however, it appears there are more undecideds in marginal or contested blue states than in others. This tells me Biden’s support is soft.

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talking overall. nobody will hit 50% in 2024.

Allan

77

then why list Jersey at all.

trump has no chance there, marginal or otherwise.

Allan

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overall is irrelevant.

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because the list isn’t about where I would spend money, or where Trump should. It’s simply objective criteria using polling data to describe the current state of the race as polling shows it to be. Like TX and FL show Trumps lead under 10% NJ shows Biden’s lead under 10%. Thus they all are categorized as “marginal play”. Unlike NJ, in TX and FL Trump has polled over 50%, while in NJ Biden has not. Trump’s lead in TX and FL is 9%, while Biden’s in NJ is 7%.

It’s not just NJ, EVERY state were the polls show a lead under 10% but more than 5% is categorized as “marginal play”. The categorization is objective. Completely removing anyone’s “critical thinking” (should be read as "wishfull thinking). As time nears the election, and the numbers change, so will the categorization. I will likely also add some other objective criteria like polling over 50% in more than 1/2 of the polls, or the challenger in the state failing to poll within the MOE in successive polls. Why? because if one candidate is up 45-37 and the trailing candidate has never broken 40%, the chances for the trailing candidate would be even more marginal.

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80

not wishful thinking that biden will win Jersey easily.

Allan