Who will the spoiler be?
the obvious choice kennedy.
yanks support away from both candidates
Allan
from wiki
âDuring the 2022 elections, the Democrats and Republicans each gained one of the two seats Texas gained through reapportionment. While Republicans flipped the 15th district, Democrats flipped back the 34th district, and retained the 28th district, dashing Republican hopes of a red wave in the Rio Grande Valley.â
Allan
Check it out, heâs day-fantasizing again. 
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Kennedy wonât get 1% of the vote, and none of it will be from Trump supporters. The only issue that Kennedy shares with the right is Covid, and that is yesterdayâs news.
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We can bookmark this.
Kennedy will get anywhere from 5 - 12 % of the vote , and some will be from would-be Trump supporters.
He has no money. His campaign has raised some $27 million, but they have already spent $22 million and have little if anything to show for it. He most likely wonât even be on the ballot in many States.
There will be no way to know if any would-be Trump supporters vote for him, but his overt support from a few Republicans is from never-Trumpers, not Trump supporters.
Thatâs why I find the 2000 election to be historically hilarious. Even Walter Mondale won his home state of Minnesota in the bloodbath of 1984 (it was the only state he won). But Gore couldnât take his home state of Tennessee in 2000. And historically speaking, your home state is kind of a gimme state because the voters like seeing one of their own rise to the top, even if heâs hated otherwise.
Granted Trump didnât win New York in 2016 or 2020 either. Although in 2016 it was two native New Yorkers running against each other.
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Thatâs not surprising. At this stage, heâs a political concept to people because folks really havenât heard much about what he represents. His substance has more to turn off voters in each Party than he does to offer a viable option to either of them.
Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt 
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Trumpâs home state is primarily Florida these days. New York is his primary place of business state.
Iâm calling Trump unless something insane happens before November. The economy is a â â â â show for the common man and thatâs usually what defines an election winner or lose unless thereâs a huge war going on they can redirect everyoneâs attention to or in 1984 the candidate is so personally popular that if overpowers an otherwise soft economy (Reagan enjoyed that and the economy picked up a lot after that election so Bush got to enjoy that windfall in 1988).
Whereas right now Biden has nothing really positive to run on. The economy only looks good to rich people (but when does the economy ever look bad for those people), fuel costs are still outrageous in most of the country, and heâs got no war to direct everyoneâs attention to (and most Americans donât give a â â â â about Ukraine or Israel because we arenât in those).
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I use previous years of polls on RCP to see how accurate they were.
Quinnipac is near the bottom of accuracy IMO.
True but he was born there and heâs never lost his Manhattan attitude or his personality.
He didnât pull a Jeb Bush, who turned from Texan to Floridian completely during his political career. He even lost his Texan drawl. Unlike his brother George who has kept it his entire life.
They are off by only 1 % in 2016; 2020 they were way off.
Generally, Trump overperforms pollsters - which is not really true of Republicans in general.
I know when Haley Barbour was throwing his name out there back in 2012 I was like hell no. He wasnât a bad governor by any means and he took a big political risk putting his name behind the Civil Rights Museum Foundation in Mississippi (trust me that was a good way to burn your white political capitol back in 2010 since you had to literally ally with guys like Sharpton and Jesse Jason who the white community here still hates with the burning passion of a million suns and he willingly did that) but I never felt like he was qualified to be president. I think he would have done ok as a Secretary of State or something. But thatâs as far as I felt he needed to go.
I think itâs because compared to most Republicans who usually squabble over a slowly decreasing population of older white southerners, the Trump MAGA coalition is surprisingly far more inclusive than traditional Republican stalwarts. You can find people from all walks of life and racial backgrounds in what I personally consider a personality cult. He tapped into the Reaganism I mentioned earlier. No other person who has ran as a Republican except for Poppa Bush in 1988 ever benefitted from that personality complex that Trump enjoys.
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I donât even remember him running for president, did he ever declare or just explore ? . I remember 2012 primaries with Gingrich and Perry, do not remember Barbour at all.
He never actually ran but he talked about it a lot and many Republican donors were trying to get him to run back then because they considered him to be a slightly more homely version of Jeb Bush.
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