No let’s face it if one looks at Taiwan on the map there are only two that could come to the rescue and could potentially ignite a world war, our base in Okinawa and Japan. There are no other powers in the region.
I read a great article on the current situation I will try to find it it was written by a former advisor who knows the region and conflict backwards and forwards. Basically it said we are seeing the middle stages of what is likely to be a full war between China and Taiwan and that China is very close to having the ability to land 25,000 soldiers to Taiwan while at the same time overwhelming them with air power.
That China is ramping up military pressure on Taiwan hoping they make the mistake of firing on one of the aircrafts or capitulate due to impending war. That it’s not if but when and the when is getting closer. Xi wants a bloodless taking of Taiwan, think Russia taking the Crimea but that actions are suggesting that he is at the end of his patience.
They need allies they are not in NATO or any other group that I know of, they have done a good job being a secluded country staying out of everyone’s affairs unfortunately geography wise they are toast. Its 100 miles from China to Taiwan, same as Key West to Havana very close.
I would like to see the gloves come off Japan and they go full bonsai and rebuild their navy to their pre WW2 standards. Now that would be a real deterrent for China and one couldn’t ask for a powerful ally in that region than Japan getting their military on.
North Korea has no where near the wealth and technological expertise of Taiwan. The 2 most destructive weapons systems in the world are WW 1 and WW2 Tech,
Taiwan has multiple operating nuclear power plants. That means that PU 239 can be extracted from uranium fuel rods. PU 239 is the primary fissile material for light weight warheads, as PU 239 yields the same blast with only about half the physical weight of enriched uranium. Does anyone believe that Taiwan is less technologically advanced than North Korea or Iran?
It doesn’t get any press, but Taiwan has long been considered a threshold nuclear weapons power. They claim that they are a nonproliferation state, which really only means they have not conducted a live test. With today’s use of computers to run testing by simulation, the only purpose for a live test is to confirm your weapon system in the eyes of your enemies.
I believe their weapons program went active after the CCP demonstrated their weapon. I would expect there was significant US pressure to keep it on the down low.
Apparently they had operational plutonium extraction and a fully designed weapon around 1980. But apparently it was a 900 Kg weapon. A proper weapon is usually around 450 Kg, or less, as a missile warhead or standoff weapon warhead. With all the advances today I have to believe they have the tech to meet the 450 Kg goal.
They have the tech, and most likely already have the fissile material in quantity. They have a domestically developed cruise missile that could be modified to carry a warhead and strike at over 100 miles. They also have JSOWs which could be modified to carry a small warhead for tactical employment with a 40 mile stand off capability. And they have F-16s for delivery platform of these 2 weapons.
Okay, let us assume that Taiwan has a small stockpile of nuclear weapons. Some questions:
1-nuclear deterrence has never been called as a bluff. Do you think Taiwan will actually use them if attacked?
2-If so, does China actually care (given their landmass, enormous population, and willingness to despoil the environment)
3-Does the threat of a bona fide nuclear exchange embolden the world to support Taiwan militarily?
Q1: They are Asian, with the unique psyche of Asian culture. They also are free, and free people fight back. And right now there is definitely no guarantee of anyone coming to their aid.
Q2: Xi, not China as a whole, is the question. 40 weapons targeting Beijing and their significant ports and industrial centers would return China to the stone age. 10-15 tactical weapons would obliterate any invasion force, Xi’s Asian cultural driven personal pride is really the issue.
Q3: No, but it should embolden the rest of the world to pressure China to back down.
