98% of CEOs predict a recession is coming.
(When the number gets tht high, even if they were originally wrong, on some level, they will create a self-fufilling prophecy.)
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I’m not going to take part.
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There are always recessions coming. Someone should tell the other 2%.
expecting something that has been going on for months…
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There was no growth in the third quarter?
But i agree i think even if it’s not a straight up recession the economy is not as stable as it was pre pandemic.
Of course, one thing that the past 10-20 years has shown us is that CEOs today often dont know a thing about business or ecnomics. Many of them (these days) are techies with no clue how to run a business or what it means that bonds go down when rates go up.
(Ever know a great auto mechanic who can’t run a business?)
If the Fed is serious about significantly bringing down inflation they have to significantly slow down the economy to do so.
There’s clearly concerning head winds that the economy is facing:
The shrinking money supply is mainly responsible for deteriorating economic conditions to come, Hanke said.
“Where we’re going is determined by where the money supply is going,” he said. “The Quantity Theory of Money is a way to determine national income determination. We had the money supply being goosed in early 2020, when COVID hit, we had the money supply growing, on average, about three times faster than it should have been growing to hit a 2% inflation target. As a result, we had a lot of inflation.”
In the thread? Or the recession?
Looks like its going to be a soft landing to me, inflation being offset by wage increases, inflation slowing, should hobble along.
“Money supply” is one of the many euphemisms for “freshly printed money,” or “helicopter money.”
Hanke has some weird views on Ukraine (and can’t stop sharing them) but he is a respected conservative economist whose specialty is inflation in emerging markets economies.
He’s be among the first, of many economists to remind us that using QE/QT to tweak an economy (like we have been doing for years) is a little like using a
cheese grater. Painless in one direction, painful in the other.
The recession! 
Libs paid good money to live poorer than they did a couple of years ago. Let them enjoy this. 
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Oh you’ll take part whether it affects your income or not. Products and services that you enjoy and/or rely on will become scarce or unavailable as the economy crumbles and businesses close.
Who needs businesses or economy when government can provide for all?
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Count Jaime Dimon in that!
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Jamie Dimon is not off his rocker.
Setting aside the (ratish) possibility of stagflation history has shown us time and again that inflation and recession are at opposite ends of a spectrum. It has shown us that once inflation creeps above a point (roughly 5% in the modern US) it gets out of control and does not end well.
Possible endings include
- boom-to-bust
- spiraling inflation
Clearly the Fed’s excessive QE led to our current situation, but the horse is already out of the barn. Now the Fed’s job is the same as its main reason for existence . . . guiding inflation down to the softest landing possible.
Regarding the overall economy the Fed might be successful. Regarding the stock market. . . hmm not so likely.
Looks like the boys at Black Rock are seeing the same situation:
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world’s biggest asset manager.
Restricting my statements to corporate America and the stock market here:
The last three recession have been quite large,
They have had a very pronounced effect on corporate earnings.
Right now the stock market is already overpriced.
- P/E= 20
- Shiller P/E=29
- (historical average for each 15-16)
Imagine how overpriced it will be if earning drop the way earning have dropped, in the past 2-3 recessions.
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what’s the definition of “recession” du jour?
