LOL
I don’t know what CEOs call a recession to them it is probably 6 months of significantly diminished sales.
As the chart above shows there have been 3 recessions this century all three had very sharp declines in corporate earnings.
In case you as old as I am, that’s like sitting early in ronald Reagan’s Presidency and thinking back until Dwight Eisenhower’s final days in office. For a very long time now recessions have been something that KILL corporate earnings.
The S&P dropped 2-and-a-half percent today.
That’s more than 5% for the week, and it is now below several important moving averages.
The same people who offer the famous ETF known as “QQQ” also offer an ETF known as SPXU it is 3x short the S&P.
If I had been invested in SPXU all week this week I would have made 15% in a single week. (My trading style does not tolerate taking that much risk so I did well, but not that well.)
15% in a week. Wow!
Some very disappointing data today:
Many retailers make 50% of their profit during the Christmas season.
It is make-or-break for many of them.
2023 is almost certainly going to be pretty ugly. The question is for how long?
I don’t know how bad it will be for the overall economy. (My previous forecast regarding the circa 2009 real estate bubble was overly doom-and-gloom.)
but I do predict
Here’s this from the Fed:
The policymakers also downgraded their outlook for economic growth in 2023 from the 1.2% they had forecast in September to a puny 0.5% — as near to a recession forecast as they were likely to make. What’s more, they raised their expectation for the unemployment rate next year to 4.6% from 3.7% now.
I don’t get it, where’s the prosperity that Joe Biden and the Democrats were supposed to deliver?
Beyond the energy sector I don’t blame the Biden administration (much) for the bad economy.
But sounding the “all clear” when things are not “all clear” is bad policy.
Calling bad medicine “good” is bad policy.
Saying “I don’t smell smoke and anyone who does is a racist,” is very bad fire prevention.
I’m getting out of cash, stocks, and crypto. So is many of my friends. Concern inflation will eat it all up.
I am not going to say “you’re wrong.”
I am going to say that when crypto goes down, somebody sells at 80% and somebody sells at 70% and so on until it bottoms. (Same with stocks only the bottom will be much higher that it will be with crypto,)
The point is bottoms take longer than a person would naturally expect. The money that “comes out” of those things goes somewhere, holding-up the new things and delaying the bottom. The great Michael Burry (hedge fund manager who predicted the housing crash) nearly went broke because he thought it would happen long before (3 years??) it actually happened.
I wish you well.
Interesting group.
These Recession threads just aren’t the same without that one frothing lib who periodically calls for violence in pursuit of political goals.
He’s not banned, he’s just embarrassed. 
Home sales. Whatever the Fed was hoping to do during the COVID-housing crisis, apparently the Fed only delayed the problem.
The “National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo” Housing Market Index is one of the major ways of measuring the housing market.
(There are several others including: Case-Shiller, median home price etc.)
But that measure the current housing crash (so far) is just ONE POINT less severe than the housing crash during the COVID lows.
More housing data comes out tomorrow.
Wife works at a credit firm, record bonuses going out this year, funded at 150%. Mixed consumer and business
Thanks, I invest in real estate. Soon it will be at a bargain. I got out a few months ago and told a friend he should too, especially crypto. He just lost $900,000.00. Now he’s into real estate…Soon you will be able to get your pick of distressed properties…
Ahh recession is coming. I’m sure someone will suffer. Terrible news. A travesty I’m sure. A damn shame. Really.
Well it’s not just going to be the US, wouldn’t you agree?
Yes I agree this recession is global. So were the last three, in fact the circa 2009 recession that we call “the Housing bubble” is sometimes referred to as the “World Financial Crisis” or WFC
Google those three worlds in quotes and ya get:
I thought it was time to revise this thread as this is really the $24,000 question! Clearly the economy has show some resiliency especially in the area of job creation, but the fact remains that there are many areas of concern and weakness. The next six months to a year will be interesting to watch and see how everything unfolds.
Bankruptcies are skyrocketing — and that’s only half the story
Here’s more on this recession talk:
