Will Ukraine's "D-Day" bring an end to Russia's invasion?

repeating russian ropaganda does not make it true, no matter how many times you repeat the russian lies

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Finland is a big get. More artillery than Germany, France, GB and Poland combined.

Sweden’s airforce will make a nice addition to the pot

when this is over, and ukraine is established as the best army in europe, they’ll make a great addition too

This is interesting. Could be a probe. Could be a feint. Id be shocked if it was a main thrust of the counteroffensive.

But crossing the Dnipro near Kherson threatens the entire western front. Russia is already spread thin if Ukraine figures out how to mount an attack from there.

Ukraine’s military has set up positions on the eastern side of the Dnipro River near Kherson city, the Institute for the Study of War cites Russian military bloggers as saying.

Infiltrating the area could be a first step towards trying to dislodge Russian forces from positions they are using to shell and shoot at Kherson. The constant attacks have made it impossible for residents to return to normal life months after Ukrainian troops liberated the city from occupation.

Ukrainian military forays across the river could also mark the first tentative steps towards launching a long-awaited spring offensive to reclaim more territory.

From the Pentagon leaks, seems people in the media think they know more about the war than the pentagon.

U.S. intelligence assessments from early February expressed serious doubt about Ukraine’s ability to take back a great deal of Russian-occupied territory this spring, according to a review of one of the leaked documents by the Washington Post. The upcoming offensive is likely to produce only “modest territorial gains” owing to Ukraine’s lack of equipment, ammunition, and troops, the document said. It also noted that “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”

you obviously have only read the parts about february.

9 new nato trained and equipt brigades
3 new ukranian trained and equipt brigades
at least 4 (by now 6 or 8) other assault brigades

60K fresh troops for the spear
40K fresh troops to follow on

depending on how they do it, its enough.

Simon Tisdall, a stridently pro-Kyiv commentator in the UK, recently published an op-ed recognizing that the Ukrainian offensive is unlikely to achieve the optimistic goals found in western media. Instead “there will be no clean sweep” and he suggests a negotiated settlement to end the war:

While maintaining its claim to four regions illegally annexed last year, Russia eventually agrees a conditional ceasefire. Vladimir Putin hails the “strategic neutralisation” of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is obliged to temporarily postpone his drive to restore his country’s pre-2014 borders.

In return, Ukraine is spared further, unsustainable human, economic and infrastructure losses, while retaining roughly 85% of its territory. An internationally monitored, Korean-style “demilitarised zone” freezes frontlines in place. The missiles stop coming. Rebuilding can begin. Refugees come home.
Truce or a bloody stalemate? It all rides on Ukraine’s spring offensive | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian

If you doubt Tisdall’s neocon credentials, consider his proposal for a NATO-enforced no-fly zone and ultimatum to Russia in March 2022:

. . . western democracies should put their air combat forces on standby, declare their intention to impose a no-fly zone – and tell the Kremlin to stop the killing.
The more Ukraine resists, the greater the danger to Nato. It should act now to stop the slaughter | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian

It looks like some measure of reality is finally starting to seep into western media. That is a good first step.

I honestly don’t know about Ukraine’s prospects in the counteroffensive.

I think its possible that they have extraordinary gains, driving all the way to the coast and the border of Crimea. Its also possible that they make only modest gains, only able to overcome portions of Russia’s defensive lines. And its also possible that their offensive will essentially be a failure and Russia’s defenses will hold up.

We will all have to wait to see what Ukraine can do and how long they can sustain it. What I do know is that there will be no cease fire or talk of a “negotiated settlement” until after the dust settles from this counteroffensive.

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Ukraine has surprised us more than once.

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From the article, they are in a marshy area of islets and tributaries, not actually a beachhead on dry land. This will be dismounted infantry, but no trucks or armored vehicles. Probably a forward OP and a place to send out dismounted patrols. Not a strong position.

Yes it seems unlikely to be much of anything. Though strategically it could be enough to make Russia nervous and draw some of their forces to protect that area from a true attack.

It isn’t enough force on it’s own. The Russians will have Chinese made quad copter drones looking at it and at the far side of the river, looking for Ukraine bridging units. There are no bridges left intact for them to cross.

Makes sense.

I look for the unauthorized interviews of Ukrainian soldiers to get an idea of the real picture. The official, everything is going well and we are pushing forward is one end of the spectrum, We are getting slammed in our sector is the other end. the truth of the situation is somewhere between the two extremes. I am seeing more and more references to the Russian forces having learned from a year in combat and changing their tactics. The use of short range quad drones for recon, and to call and correct fire, appears to be something they have learned from watching the Ukrainians.

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What’s your guess in where the counteroffensive will be directed? South of Zaporizhzhia straight at multiple Russian defensive lines and towards Melitopol? In the East as well? Is the west completely impossible because of the Dnipro?

They can’t force a river crossing in the South, they can try, but it will be an expensive failure. The center, North of Melitopol is the place to do the most damage to the Russians. Driving to the shores of the Azov splits the Russians and isolates Melitopol. Then they can drive South, attempting to expel the Russians back to the narrows of the entrance to Crimea from the West. But it is going to be very hard.

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only spetnaz units are allowed this. regular MoD forces are not

if it were my call I’d start at polohy and drive SE toward Mariopol while maintaing pressure all across the Zaphariza front. . I think its too late to go straight for Melitopol. The time to do Melitopol was last Summer/Fall when it was a shell. Something we did not want them to do because the likelihood of success was fairly high and the political fallout in russia was unforseeable. may have ended up with president Preghozian. I said at the time we would force them to deal with Pregozhian first, and we have. by giving them just enough to pretty much destroy Wagner in Bakhmut but not enough to do anything else. now they are going to have to pay for our strategic needs with a much harder slog through a much better defended Zaphariza

Sometimes the silence of Ukrainian soldiers speaks for itself.

The families of the missing are not so silent.

Multiple sources confirm that the US and UK vetoed a tentative settlement a year ago. The Ukrainians have lost thousands of square miles of territory, and tens of thousands of lives over the last year. Americans have spent tens of billions of dollars to keep the war going in the failed effort.

Reported terms of that April 2022 agreement would have returned Russian forces to the original line of control in Donbass and Crimea of early February 2022 (shaded area). The proposal from Tisdall would leave the Russians in control of all the orange areas.

Note that Tisdall’s proposal does not end the war. Instead its stated intent is for Zelensky to “temporarily postpone his drive to restore his country’s pre-2014 borders.” The proposal is just a pretext to give time for Ukraine to rearm and for a new crop of conscripts to mature.

The likely outcome of a Ukrainian offensive will be further destruction of the Ukrainian Army and greater resolve from Russia to eliminate the NATO threat in Ukraine.

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Dude no body wants to be in Russia.

Not even Russians want to be in Russia. If Moscow said tomorrow “every oblast can now choose what it wants to do” I guarantee you just about every single one besides Moscow and St. Petersburg would vote to secede from the Federation.

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